NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook – June 17, 2023
On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of July plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. The overall level of confidence in the Seasonal Outlook is addressed in the NOAA discussion. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:
Re ENSO:
- “NOAA’s CPC forecast calls for more than a 90 percent chance of El Niño persisting through JFM 2024 with a 56 percent chance of a strong El Niño (> 1.5 degrees C) during NDJ 2023.”
For July:
- “Above normal temperatures are favored from the Four Corners region, across the central and southern Great Plains, the Southeast, and the Northeast.”
- “A weakened monsoon during July across eastern Arizona and New Mexico is predicted”
- “a strong subtropical ridge, which would favor above-normal precipitation from the southern Great Plains northward and into the Mid-Atlantic”
- “a storm track across the northern Great Plains and into the Ohio River valley”
For JAS 2023:
- “The highest probabilities (more than 50 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast across parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Southwest, Gulf Coast, and East.”
- “elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation for parts of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Great Lakes, while above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Great Plains, parts of the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Northern Rockies, and Florida Peninsula.”
Beyond JAS 2023:
- “Above-normal temperatures remain the most likely outcome throughout much of the U.S. from ASO to OND 2023.”
- “Beginning in NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS”
- “During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East”
- “Precipitation outlooks during the fall 2023 through the winter 2023-24 relied upon El Niño composites and the consolidation tool with an increased chance of above (below)-normal precipitation across the southern (northern) tier of the CONUS.”
- “The largest probabilities (50 percent for above) are forecast across parts of the Southeast from NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024 based on a strong, reliable wet signal associated with El Niño.
- “During the spring and summer 2023, the precipitation outlooks are based mostly on decadal trends.”
