NOAA Updates its March 2024 Weather Outlook – Not Much Different from the Mid-Month Outlook – March 1, 2024

March 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is March of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for March and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for March for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for March. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (MAM) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the March Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the amount of water in the snowpack waiting to be released in the Spring. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting CLIMAS Discussion.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for March is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for March and the Mid-Month Outlook for March. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for March and the three-month outlook for MAM 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for March 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for March.

There have been some significant changes especially related to temperature. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for March.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for March and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.
The three-month map was issued on February 15, 2024.  One expects some changes  14 days later. But the change to the precipitation map is not very dramatic.  This then gives us no reason to question the three-month MAM precipitation Outlook.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.