Atmospheric Rivers

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 14 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 14 2024 – 12Z Thu May 16 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the
Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Tuesday…

…Above-average temperatures expected for South Florida and the West…

Wet and unsettled weather is in store for the Gulf Coast and Southeast
today thanks to a slow-moving frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms
across this region have the potential to turn severe and will be capable
of producing heavy rain. SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather,
indicating the potential exists for multiple corridors of damaging winds,
very large hail, and a one or two tornadoes covering central/northern
Florida and southern Georgia. Additionally, WPC has a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall and local flash flooding highlighted for much of the
same area as the severe weather threat while a broader Marginal Risk spans
northward to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. As the system
advances eastward the threats for severe storms and heavy rainfall will
reduce for Wednesday to a Marginal Risk.

Showers and storms over the lower Missouri an Mid-Mississippi valleys to
the Ohio Valley will spread east through the Mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast today. A brief window of drier weather over the Mississippi
Valley into early Wednesday will be followed by the next round of showers
and storms that will begin to spread into the region by late Wednesday.
Before impacting the central U.S. on Wednesday, this previously noted
system will spread showers and storms followed by much cooler temperatures
from the Northern Rockies into Central Rockies and High Plains on Tuesday.

South Florida will continue to have well above-normal, with near to record
high temperatures through Wednesday. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will
spread across the western states reaching well-above normal highs across
the region by midweek.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 13 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 13 2024 – 12Z Wed May 15 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the
Gulf Coast today and the Southeast Tuesday…

…Above average temperatures expected for the West…

A strong upper low will push east across the central U.S. today
accompanied by a strengthening surface low pressure system that will sweep
across the southern tier. A warm front will lift north across the Gulf
Coast ahead of the system and prime the environment for showers and
thunderstorms today. Severe thunderstorms are expected from central and
east Texas across portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida
Panhandle, and the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook highlights
this area with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms with an
embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. Potential storm hazards will
include significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Additionally, anomalous moisture and high instability over the Gulf Coast
region will support waves of very heavy rainfall that will likely lead to
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. There is Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect from east Texas across
southern portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle and a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) in effect from the toe of the Louisiana boot to
the western Florida Panhandle. Heavy rainfall will also be possible
further north in parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest
along a slow moving frontal boundary draped over the top of the southern
low pressure system.

The low pressure system will continue to move east through mid-week, and
the warm front will lift north across the Southeast while the trailing
cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the
eastern U.S. on Tuesday, and although the severe thunderstorm threat will
be lower than it was on Monday, isolated severe storms with heavy rainfall
will be possible in the Southeast. By Tuesday night, showers and storms
will expand into the northeast as well, then the southern low pressure
system will push into the Atlantic on Wednesday.

Unsettled weather is also expected to develop in the Intermountain West
and the northern and central Plains as a frontal system moves south across
the region over the next few days. Low pressure will consolidate and
strengthen over the northern/central Plains on Tuesday and move towards
the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and this system will create chances
for showers and thunderstorms and high elevation snow.

Temperature-wise, highs will be generally above average for much of the
western third of the U.S. through mid-week, but cooler air will move into
the northern and central Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday in the wake of a
frontal system. Above average temperatures are also forecast for the
northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley today, but temperatures will
return to near average or dip slightly below average Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly below to near average for the
rest of the central and eastern U.S. with the exception of parts of
southern Texas and central and south Florida where temperatures will
remain above average. High temperatures in these areas will be in the 90s
and lower 100s, and some daily high temperature records may be tied or
broken.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 12 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 12 2024 – 12Z Tue May 14 2024

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few
days…

…Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West and
north-central United States…

Active weather is in the forecast for the southern U.S. over the next few
days as a low pressure system sweeps across the South into the Southeast.
A potent upper low will move over the Plains today, and low pressure will
deepen in the lee of the Rockies. The stalled frontal boundary across West
Texas and New Mexico will lift northeast as a warm front, and warm, moist
Gulf air will surge into the central/southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, and conditions
will be favorable for scattered strong to severe storms from eastern Texas
through central Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight
Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for this area. Potential storm
hazards include large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. In
addition to severe storm hazards, heavy rain falling on top of saturated
soils will likely lead to flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect from eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 3/4) area for
particularly sensitive areas in east Texas and western Louisiana. The low
pressure system will push eastwards this week, and the threat of severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall/flash flooding will shift across the
northern Gulf Coast to the Southeast.

To the north, a front moving south across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region will produce showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, and
precipitation will push into the Northeast Tuesday. Precipitation chances
will also expand across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday ahead of the southern
low pressure system. In the northern Rockies and northern Plains, a
separate frontal system will be moving south across the region Monday into
Tuesday, and low elevation showers and storms and high elevation snow are
expected. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday for
the West Coast and Southwest.

Summer-like temperatures will continue today across much of the West and
north-central U.S. with well-above average highs in the 70s and 80s, and
potentially the lower 90s for some. Below average temperatures are
forecast today for the rest of the central U.S. and much of the East
Coast. Temperatures will remain above average in the West through Tuesday,
but will begin to return to near normal Monday and Tuesday for the central
and eastern United States.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat May 11 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 11 2024 - 12Z Mon May 13 2024

...Wet weekend in store for the Central/Southern Plains and adjacent
Rockies...

...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible for parts of the South and
Southeast Sunday through Tuesday...

...Above average temperatures forecast for the West and north-central U.S.
this weekend...

Precipitation chances will continue today for portions of the
central/southern Plains and adjacent Rockies, and coverage is expected to
increase with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast to impact the
Plains today. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms
will be possible east of a stalled frontal boundary draped up against the
Rockies. Potential storm hazards will include hail, strong wind gusts, and
isolated flash flooding. In the higher elevations west of the frontal
boundary, wintry precipitation is expected, and some of the higher peaks
in Colorado and northern New Mexico could receive a few additional inches
of snow.

The surface front is expected to remain in place through tonight, then the
front will begin to lift north as a warm front across Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Sunday while low pressure deepens over the Plains.
Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop on
Sunday, and the threat of heavy rainfall will increase as warm Gulf air
moves into the region. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) from central Texas east to the Mississippi River. Scattered instances
of flash flooding will be possible, especially where soils are still moist
after recent heavy rains. The developing low pressure system is forecast
to push east across the Lower Mississippi Valley towards the Southeast on
Monday and Tuesday, and the heavy rainfall/flash flood threat will shift
east across the northern Gulf Coast states.

To the east, precipitation chances will return to the Mid-Atlantic and
Great Lakes regions today as an occluded frontal system pushes towards the
East Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday morning
before the system moves offshore Sunday afternoon. Another frontal system
will drop south into the north-central U.S. over the weekend, which may
renew precipitation chances near the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Other
areas of the country should remain mostly dry through Monday.

Upper-level ridging over the West Coast and north-central U.S. will lead
to well-above average temperatures in these regions through the weekend.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the 80s to lower 90s in
California and the Pacific Northwest and from the 70s to lower 80s in the
northern Plains. The focus for warmer temperatures will shift more into
the Interior West/Great Basin and Upper Midwest on Sunday. Below average
temperatures are forecast elsewhere across the eastern and central U.S.
through the weekend, but temperature will trend back towards normal early
in the work week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 10 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 10 2024 – 12Z Sun May 12 2024

…Severe thunderstorms possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today…

…Above average temperatures will spread across the West and
north-central U.S. this weekend…

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue today across the
Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast as a slow-moving cold front gradually
pushes towards the East Coast. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from
the eastern Carolinas where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an
area with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) and in
southern Georgia and north Florida where there is another Slight Risk
(level 2/5) area with an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. The main
thunderstorm threat will be damaging winds, but hail and locally heavy
rainfall/isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible.
Precipitation will come to an end for most areas in these regions tonight
as the front moves into the Atlantic, but isolated showers and storms will
remain possible in south Florida through the weekend as the frontal
boundary slows/stalls.

By this afternoon, a frontal system will develop over the Upper Midwest
then push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. This system will
cause precipitation chances to return to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England on Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms
expected. This system is forecast to be weaker than the system that
impacted the region on Thursday and Friday, and severe thunderstorms are
not expected. Another front will drop south into the northern Plains and
upper Midwest on Sunday, but the frontal passage is expected to be mostly
dry with only some scattered showers and storms.

Meanwhile, an upper level low and a stationary surface front will be
positioned over the southwestern U.S., which will support low elevation
showers and thunderstorms over the central and southern High Plains and
the Four Corners region and high elevation wintry precipitation through
Saturday. Most lower elevation areas will see light to moderate rainfall,
though some heavier showers/storms will be possible heading into Saturday
evening for portions of west Texas, with some isolated flash flooding
possible. The upper low will gradually push east Saturday night into
Sunday, and precipitation chances will expand into the central and
southern Plains as a low pressure system develops. This system will push
east early next week, and warm, moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico will
likely support heavy rainfall in the warm sector that could potentially
lead to flash flooding in parts of the South.

The Pacific Northwest and much of California will remain dry through this
weekend as surface high pressure and upper level ridging remain anchored
over the region. This will result in above average temperatures with highs
in the 80s and even lower 90s (15-25 degrees above average) in some areas.
The upper level ridge and above average temperatures will expand east
across the north-central U.S. over the weekend where highs will range from
the mid-70s to the lower 80s. Elsewhere, forecast precipitation and cloud
cover will result in temperatures below or near average.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 09 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 09 2024 – 12Z Sat May 11 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians,
and Southeast on Thursday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Central Rockies on
Thursday…

On Thursday, a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Ohio
Valley and then southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move
eastward off most of the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday evening, lingering
over Florida on Saturday.

As the southern half of the boundary moves across the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast on Friday, it will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana, central Mississippi,
Southern Alabama, and southern Georgia. The SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley/Southeast through
Friday morning. The potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There will be the added threat of severe thunderstorm wind
gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Southern Plains to the
Southeast. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of hail two inches
or greater over parts of the Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, central
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, far eastern Tennessee, western North
Carolina, and western South Carolina. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians,
and Southeast through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally,
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. In
addition, moderate to heavy rain will also develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Middle Mississippi Valley.

On Friday, the remainder of the front will move off most of the Atlantic
Coast, while parts of the boundary will linger over Florida on Saturday.
The system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
southern Georgia, extreme southeastern South Carolina, and northeastern
Florida. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast from Friday into Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to
heavy rain over parts of southern Georgia, extreme southeastern South
Carolina, and northern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf
Coast/Southeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Southwest to the Middle Mississippi
Valley will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies from Thursday to Saturday morning. On Thursday,
the system will produce heavy snow over parts of the Central Rockies.

Moreover, overnight Thursday, a weak front moving out of Central Canada
will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday morning and then
advance eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Saturday. The system
will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley Friday afternoon into evening. Overnight Friday, the showers and
thunderstorms move into parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on overnight
Friday. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 08 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 08 2024 – 12Z Fri May 10 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on
Wednesday…

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast overnight Wednesday. In addition, a wave
of low pressure over parts of the Central/Southern Plains will move
eastward to the Ohio Valley by Thursday, and then the northern half of the
boundary will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday morning.
Furthermore, a part of the boundary lingers over parts of the Southeast
and Central Gulf Coast also on Friday.

As the wave advances to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, it
will bring showers and severe thunderstorms, mainly over parts of southern
Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee.
The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle Mississippi Valley
through Thursday morning. The potential hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of EF2 to EF5
tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
and Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
north-central Tennessee and northwestern Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast,
Northern Plains, and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and westward to the Southern Plains. The
threat of severe thunderstorms will be the highest over parts of eastern
Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Thursday
through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of two inches of
hail over eastern Texas.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and central Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Moreover, moderate to heavy rain will also
develop over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, with a
secondary max over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will produce rain
and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies from
Wednesday to Friday. On Wednesday, the system will produce heavy snow over
parts of the Northern Rockies.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 07 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 07 2024 – 12Z Thu May 09 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies…

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and then to the Southern Plain on Tuesday will develop a wave of
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday. The boundary will
move off the Northeast Coast by Thursday as a second wave of low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains and moves to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday.

As the front advances eastward on Tuesday, it will bring with it showers
and severe thunderstorms, particularly over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Middle Mississippi Valley. In light of this, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of Indiana,
western Ohio, and north-central Kentucky through Wednesday morning. The
potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
There is also a heightened threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail two
inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, and north-central Kentucky.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Southern Plains, Central Gulf Coast,
and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, as the second wave of low pressure moves out of the Southern
Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the storm will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma, a small part of
Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southern
Indiana, Tennessee, and a small portion of Mississippi. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southern Plains from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an
additional threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern
Plains.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the region from Wednesday into Thursday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northeast to Southeast on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the northwestern sector of the country
will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest through late Tuesday night. The system will produce rain over
parts of the Northern High Plains and heavy snow over parts of the
Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 06 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 06 2024 – 12Z Wed May 08 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Monday and a Slight Risk across the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Northern High
Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations from the Pacific Northwest to the
Northern/Central Rockies…

A front extending from the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains to the
Southern Rockies will advance eastward to the Lower Great Lakes and
southwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The deep
upper-level trough associated with the system will help produce heavy snow
over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and the Uinta Mountains on
Monday.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Pains on Monday and Tuesday. The system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska, western Iowa/Missouri, and northeastern
Oklahoma as the front moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, the moisture over the Northern High Plains will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern
Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High
Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, as the cold front moves across the Ohio Valley, the boundary
will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Ohio, Indiana,
Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, extreme
northeastern Arkansas, and a small portion of northern Tennessee.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater over parts of the Ohio Valley.

Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Central Gulf Coast on
Monday and over parts of the Northeast and Southeast on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, another front onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern Intermountain Region and into Central California
by late Monday afternoon. The northern half of the boundary will dissipate
by Tuesday morning, while the southern half moves southeastward to the
Southern Plains/Southern Rockies, linking up with the front and extending
westward over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon.

On Monday, rain and higher-elevation snow will develop over the Pacific
Northwest as the system moves onshore over the Northwest. The snow will be
heavy over the Southern Cascades. Snow will also develop over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region Monday night.

On Tuesday, onshore flow will keep rain and higher-elevation snow over
parts of the Northwest. Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern
Rockies will aid in producing heavy snow over parts of the region.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 05 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 – 12Z Tue May 07 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Northern High Plains
and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday…

…Heavy snow over the southern Cascades, Northern Rockies, and Uinta
Mountains on Sunday and Monday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Monday…

A front extending from the Northern Intermountain Region to Southern
California on Sunday will advance eastward to the Northern/Middle
Mississippi Valley and then to the Southern Plains. At the same time, the
associated surface low deepens significantly by Tuesday.

The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Great Basin, with
heavy snow developing over parts of the Southern Cascades. Scattered rain
and higher-elevation snow will also develop over parts of California.
Overnight Sunday, the snow will expand into the Northern/Central Rockies
as light rain develops over the Northern High Plains.

On Monday, the snow will continue over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Northern/Central Rockies, with heavy snow developing over parts
of the Northern Rockies and Uinta Mountains.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Pains Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. The moisture will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern
Montana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High Plains from Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska and western Iowa/Missouri as the front
moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

More significantly, the system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Meanwhile, another front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains will slowly move eastward off the Northeast Coast on Sunday. At the
same time, the western portion returns northward as a warm front over the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys by Tuesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf
of Mexico will stream northward over eastern Texas, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over eastern Texas through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, showers
and thunderstorms will extend from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to
the Southeast on Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue along
and near the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and
southward from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Monday into
Tuesday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.