Atmospheric Rivers

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 18 2024

…Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to
impact locations from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest for the
next couple of days…

…Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies Monday and
Tuesday…

…A heat wave will quickly spread from the Plains today, into the Great
Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, and into the Northeast on Tuesday…

…A plume of tropical moisture will bring an increasing threat of heavy
rain and flash flooding to the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday,
shifting toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday…

As a high pressure system brings fair weather and a fresh dose of cooler
than normal temperatures into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend,
a heat wave is emerging across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley ahead of a
complex low pressure system developing over the northern Plains. A
thunderstorm complex containing severe weather is in progress early this
morning in association with the intensifying low pressure complex. The
thunderstorms will quickly move northeast into southern Canada today but
additional jet stream energy moving across the northern Rockies will help
develop a new low pressure system over the central Plains later today.
This system will rapidly develop and expand the next round of showers and
thunderstorms across the northern Plains tonight, and heading into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours can be
expected to accompany this round of inclement over the upper Midwest after
the latest round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in the
same area early this morning diminishes and moves east into the upper
Great Lakes.

By Tuesday, yet another upper trough with an energetic jet stream will
move quickly into the Pacific Northwest. This system will usher a dose of
even colder air through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where
a round of late-season wet snow is expected to persist over the
higher-elevations of the northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday. A Winter
Storm Watch is in effect for these higher-elevations. In addition, Freeze
and Frost Warnings are in effect over portions of the interior Pacific
Northwest. This energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind
across the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Monday, reaching into
the central Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning. As the low
pressure center over the central High Plains intensifies and heads
northeast across the northern Plains, a renewed round of heavy rain and
severe thunderstorms will likely develop and impact the same general
region of upper Midwest across north-central Minnesota by Tuesday morning,
where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated.

In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, and even snowy weather across
the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low pressure
complex from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley.
The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high temperatures
well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and New
Hampshire.

Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the
western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas
will shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to head toward the
central Gulf Coast region late Sunday into Monday. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are expected to bring an
increasing threat of heavy rain first along the central Gulf Coast region
during the next couple of days, with a gradual westward shift in the heavy
rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a
tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
next few days. It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually
strengthen especially along the western Gulf Coast region by Tuesday
morning as pressure gradually falls in the Gulf of Mexico.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 15 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024

…Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain expected
to impact various locations in the northern and central U.S. through the
next couple of days…

…Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies beginning on
Monday…

…A plume of tropical moisture is forecast to reach the central Gulf
Coast on Monday…

…A heat wave will quickly spread from the northern Plains this weekend
into the Great Lakes on Monday…

As a series of fronts pushes the showers and storms off the East Coast
early this morning, an active and changeable weather pattern will
establish across the Pacific Northwest. The unseasonably cold and
blustery conditions across this region will be in stark contrast with the
heat that is forecast to quickly spread from the northern Plains this
weekend, reaching into the Great Lakes on Monday. Areas in between these
temperature extremes will be under an active storm track where low
pressure systems will develop and move through in quick succession. The
first round of showers and storms associated with a leading system is
forecast to spark thunderstorm activity from the central Plains early this
morning to the upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple rounds of heavy rain
associated with these storms could lead to areas of flash flooding between
eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, a trailing and
stronger low pressure system is forecast to intensify and move quickly
across the northern Plains tonight. This system will help produce strong
to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana into North and
South Dakota. Unseasonably cold and windy weather will continue into
Sunday and Monday across the Northwest as yet another cold upper trough
reaches the Pacific Northwest. This system will reinforce the
unseasonably cold and windy conditions across the region on Monday along
with wet snow moving into the northern Rockies, therefore prompting the
issuance of Winter Storm Watches. Meanwhile, an area of rain and
thunderstorms is expected to develop and expand across the northern Plains
toward the upper Midwest where a stationary front strengthens ahead of a
developing low pressure system over the central High Plains.

Across the Florida Peninsula, the threat of heavy rain continues to
diminish as the main tropical moisture plume is forecast to swing farther
west and head toward the central Gulf Coast during the next couple of
days. Nevertheless, some thunderstorms that manage to develop over
southern Florida could result in local flooding issues given the already
saturated soil. By Monday morning, heavy rain associated with the
tropical moisture plume could begin impacting the central Gulf Coast
region. In contrast, a refreshingly dry airmass behind a cold front
should lead to beautiful weather this Father’s Day weekend throughout the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley.

The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat
impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs
are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert
Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the
Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the
central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well
below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday,
an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern
U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains,
and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with
maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight
lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat
safety!

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley on Thursday and a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England plus the Central/Southern High Plains on Friday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern tip of Florida on Thursday and a slight Risk over the southern
tip of Florida on Friday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern
California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains on
Thursday…

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley, and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the
Northeast Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and westward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will trigger showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of severe thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the
Central Plains to Western Ohio Valley. Further, there will be an added
threat of large hail, two inches or greater, from the Central Plains to
the Western Ohio Valley.

On Friday, the boundary moves eastward to the Northeast, producing showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England from
Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of tornadoes/ hail.

In addition, along the western end of the front, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Friday through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an added threat of severe
thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the Central High
Plains. On Friday, there will also be showers and thunderstorms from parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Appalachians.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, a stationary front with waves will extend across
northern Florida and parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and the combination of
tropical moisture over southern Florida will produce showers and
thunderstorms with very heavy rain over parts of southern Florida.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.

On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over
the southern tip of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over southern Florida from Friday into
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, on Friday, a front will develop over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and move inland to the Northern Plains, the Great Basin, and
Southern California. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Friday
evening into Saturday. Moreover, onshore flow behind the front will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday to Saturday.

Moreover, upper-level ridging will develop over parts of the Southwest
eastward to the Southern, leading to Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and
Heat Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and
Southern High Plains. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor
activities must stay informed and take immediate and necessary precautions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jun 12 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 – 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Middle
Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Florida through Friday morning…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over northern/central
California, Southwest, and western Texas on Wednesday…

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Northern Rockies and
Great will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley then
westward to the Central Rockies by Friday. The boundary will trigger
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, there will be an added threat of large hail, two inches or
greater over Minnesota to northwestern Iowa.

Furthermore, a stationary front with waves will extend across northern
Florida and across the Gulf Coast, and the combination of tropical
moisture over Florida will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall through Thursday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop along parts
of the Western Gulf Coast and Central/Southern High Plains. Furthermore, a
cold pool of air over New England will trigger daytime showers with
embedded thunderstorms.

On Thursday, the Midwest front will move over parts of the Ohio Valley,
creating showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains from
Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. The system will also produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast on Thursday evening into Friday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains.

In addition, the tropical moisture will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from
Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, onshore flow will contribute to the development of rain over
parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast on Friday morning. Meanwhile,
upper-level ridging will strengthen over California and the Southwest on
Wednesday, and a subtropical high will form over North-Central Mexico,
leading to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
Northern/Central California and Southwest and Excessive Heat Watches in
western Texas. It is crucial for residents and individuals involved in
outdoor activities to stay informed and take immediate and necessary
precautions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jun 11 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 – 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Florida through Wednesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
Northern/Central California, Southwest, and western Texas on Tuesday…

A front extending from the Southeast across the Gulf Coast into the
Southern Plains will make the eastern portion quasi-stationary over the
Southeast. At the same time, the western half dissipates on Wednesday. The
half of the west of the boundary will aid in creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of south-central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the eastern
portion of the front. The combination of tropical moisture and upper-level
impulses will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop along parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

In addition, the tropical moisture will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Northeast will help develop rain
with daytime-embedded thunderstorms over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Elsewhere, another front over the Upper Mississippi Valley extending
southwestward to the Central Rockies/Great Basin will move eastward to the
Great Lakes and dissipate by Wednesday evening. On Tuesday, the front will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central Plains and Central Rockies.

On Wednesday, moisture pooling along the boundary will create showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an added threat of hail, two inches or
greater, over the region. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop
from the Gulf Coast to the Southern High Plains on Wednesday.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging will build over California and the
Southwest on Tuesday, and a subtropical high will develop over
North-Central Mexico, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories
over Northern/Central California and Southwest and Excessive Heat Watches
in western Texas. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor activities
must stay informed and take necessary precautions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 10 2024 – 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains and Southeast on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Florida on Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
Northern/Central California and Southwest on Tuesday…

A front over the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin will move eastward to
the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. As
moisture streams northward into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains, the
boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
western South Dakota, northwestern Nebraska, eastern Wyoming, and extreme
eastern Montana. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Further, a front extending from the Southeast to the Southern Plains will
trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of southeastern
Georgia and southern South Carolina. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop
over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies and Southern Plains on Monday.
In addition, upper-level energy over the Great Lakes/Northeast will help
produce rain and showers/thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes, Northeast, Central Appalachians, and northern Mid-Atlantic through
Monday night.

On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, Central/Southern
Rockies, and Central/Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the combination of tropical moisture and upper-level impulses
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of southern Florida. This weather pattern has led the WPC to issue a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest and advance eastward to the Northern Plains to the Great
Basin by Wednesday. The system will produce rain over parts of the
Northwest and scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern High Plains on Wednesday. Furthermore, upper-level ridging will
build over California and the Southwest on Tuesday prompting Excessive
Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over Northern/Central California
and Southwest. It’s crucial for residents and individuals involved in
outdoor activities to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 09 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains on Monday…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of western Texas…

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Tennessee
Valley and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to off
most of the Eastern Seaboard by Monday evening. Moisture pooling along the
boundary will aid in creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over southern Missouri. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.

Moreover, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along
the front from the Southeast to the Northern Intermountain Region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, lower
Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, Central Rockies, and the Northern
Intermountain Region through Monday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move inland to the
Pacific Northwest/Central California by early Sunday afternoon. On Sunday,
the boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region. The front will
continue to move eastward to the Northern Plains by Monday. The front will
trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of western South
Dakota, northwestern Nebraska, and extreme eastern Montana/Wyoming.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains from Monday
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will also cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley from
Monday through Tuesday morning. In addition, the associated heavy rain
will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, along the front over the Southern High Plains, showers and
thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of the region.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains from Monday through
Tuesday morning. In addition, the associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Elsewhere, tropical moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern
Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of southern Florida from Monday through
Tuesday morning. In addition, the associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, upper-level energy over the Great Lakes/Northeast will help
produce rain over parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast through
Monday night. Furthermore, upper-level ridging over Texas helps spawn Heat
Advisories over parts of western Texas.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 08 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 08 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 10 2024

….There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains on Saturday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Saturday and the Central/Southern High Plains on
Sunday…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of western Texas…

A front over the Central Plains into the Central Rockies will move
eastward to off most of the Eastern Seaboard by Monday. The boundary will
aid in triggering showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains through
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, there is an added threat of severe thunderstorm
wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas. Furthermore, there is also an added threat of hail, two
inches or greater, over parts of eastern Colorado.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of southern Missouri and the Central High Plain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Sunday, upper-level energy moving from the Southwest to the Southern
High Plains will create showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

The showers and thunderstorms will also cause heavy rain to develop over
parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Furthermore, an upper-level low over the Great Lakes/Northeast will help
produce rain over parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast through
Monday. Another area of upper-level energy and a weakening front will help
create showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Monday.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging over Texas helps spawn Heat Advisories
over parts of western Texas.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Valid 00Z Sat Jun 08 2024 – 00Z Mon Jun 10 2024

…Threats for severe weather and flash flooding for portions of the
Central Plains into the middle/lower Missouri River Valley through
Saturday…

…Excessive heat over the West and Southwest through Saturday but some
relief coming on Sunday…

Most of the active weather across the lower 48 will focus across the
central portion of the nation through the weekend in the form of severe
thunderstorms and potential for flash flooding. Anomalous moisture will
pool in the vicinity of a pair of frontal boundaries located over the
Central Plains this evening. Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage through this evening near a stationary front currently in
place across Nebraska, with threats for large hail and damaging straight
line winds in addition to tornadoes. An organized thunderstorm complex is
likely to form tonight and translate toward the southeast toward the lower
Missouri Valley, carrying a risk for flash flooding with high rainfall
rates and possibly 4-5 inches of rain by Saturday morning.

Severe weather (mainly hail and wind) and flash flood potential will focus
a little farther south on Saturday as a cold front moves through the
central Plains. The threat region will extend from the central High
Plains, through southern KS into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. Spotty rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches will be possible in
addition to the severe thunderstorms.

Out West, an upper level ridge in place over the western U.S. will
maintain the hot weather on Saturday that has been impacting the region
over the past couple of days. However, the upper level ridge will be
displaced and weakened with the approach of an upstream trough axis and
associated surface cold front. The cold front is forecast to arrive early
on Sunday and advance south and east during the day which will lower the
magnitude of hot weather. Temperatures however, are still likely to remain
up to roughly 10 degrees above average on Sunday.

Across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, temperatures will run 5
to 15 degrees below average beneath the influence of upper level troughing
this weekend. The region will remain unsettled however, with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms beneath the upper trough and with a
surface low/cold front tracking eastward through Sunday. East of the
Appalachians, from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast, high pressure will keep
temperatures near to slightly above average for the weekend but with
little to no chances for precipitation. The one exception will be across
the Florida Peninsula where high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s
may challenge a few daily maximum temperature records on Saturday and
Sunday. In addition, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected each day
but with a focus across southern Florida where access to better moisture
will reside.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.