Atmospheric Rivers

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024

...Debby is forecast to spread excessive rainfall, strong winds and
thunderstorms up through much of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and
Northeast through Saturday morning...

...Excessive Heat concerns continue across the Deep South while cooler air
settles over the Central U.S. through the end of the week...

...Monsoonal storms persist over parts of the Southwest, Four Corners and
High Plains...

Tropical Storm Debby is likely to weaken as it moves from the South
Carolina coast and into the Carolina Piedmont tonight before weakening
into a Tropical Depression sometime on Friday while it moves up into the
Central Appalachians of Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Debby is
expected to produce an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to
maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. There's a High Risk (at
least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding from coastal
North Carolina, into the Piedmont and up through the Blue
Ridge/Appalachians of Virginia. Considerable flooding is expected across
portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7
inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This
rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with river flooding possible. From portions of Maryland north
through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to
6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.
There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over portions
of north-central Virginia up through central Pennsylvania/New York for
Friday as Debby moves up the spine of the Appalachians. Things rain, wind
and thunderstorms should come to an end on Saturday when Debby gets swept
up into a powerful upper low propagating across southern Canada.

Elsewhere, a strong cold front associated with the potent upper low in
Canada will drag an anomalously cool airmass down into the mid-section of
the country. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley will represent
a 15-25 degree negative anomaly for those areas, where some records may be
tied or broken. Strong southerly flow beneath a building mid-level ridge
will support the continuation of a heat wave from Texas into the central
Gulf Coast. Heat Advisories and isolated Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for those areas. Conditions should improve a bit this weekend
before worsening again next week.

Monsoonal storms will continue over much of the Southwest, Four Corners
and High Plains over the next few days. Diurnal convection along a stalled
out surface front will promote intense afternoon/evening storms capable of
producing heavy rainfall. A pair of Slight Risks (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall (one today and one on Friday) are in effect across
portions of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Wildfires in the Northwest
will contribute to poor air quality over much of Oregon and western
Washington State. Heat Advisories are also in effect for western
Washington.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Thu Aug 08 2024 – 00Z Sat Aug 10 2024

…Debby to move slowly inland through northeast South Carolina into
western North Carolina Wednesday night-Thursday, then more rapidly
northeastward Friday-Saturday from the Central Appalachians into Northern
New England…

…Heavy rains, flash and river flooding likely along and to the north and
northeast of Debby, while isolated tornadoes possible to the east of the
track…

…Much above average temperatures to persist next two days across much of
the West into the Southern Plains and South, while below average
temperatures spread across the Northern and Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley…

…Record heat coming to and end from the Southwest into the South by the
end of the week…

…Fire weather threat and poor air quality continue from the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin…

Debby will make its second U.S. landfall Wednesday evening along the South
Carolina coast and push slowly northwestward through northeast South
Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday, across western North Carolina
during Thursday and then accelerate to the northeast from the Central
Appalachians into Northern New England Friday into Saturday. Sustained
winds with Debby will be lessening as the storm pushes inland and weakens,
with heavy rains, flash flooding and river flooding being the primary
threat as the system pushes northwestward and then more to the north and
northeast over the next few days. The continued slow motions of Debby
through Thursday will produce rainfall totals in the 4-8 inch range, with
locally heavier amounts, across northeast South Carolina, southeast to
central North Carolina into western Virginia, eastern West Virginia and
far western Maryland. Flood watches are currently in effect across these
areas, affecting approximately 19 million people. As the storm begins to
accelerate to the northeast on Friday through the northern Mid-Atlantic,
northern NY State and northern New England, expected precipitation amounts
will likely be less than when the storm is slower moving. Still, rainfall
totals of 2-4″ likely across central to eastern Pennsylvania, central to
northern NY State into northern New England, continuing the threat of
flash and river flooding across these areas.

No let up to the much above average temperatures over the next two days
across much of the West into the Southern Plains and South, with record
high potential Thursday across portions of Texas and the northeast Gulf
Coast from southeast Louisiana into North Florida and again on Friday from
southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. While temperatures are
still above average from the West into the South over the next few days,
it does appear that record high potential will be coming to an end by the
weekend, Heat advisories are currently in effect across the Southern
Plains into the South, affecting nearly 44 million people.

In contrast to the much above average temperatures and record heat across
the South, much cooler air will continue to sink southward in the wake of
a strong front currently stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley into
the Northern Plains. This strong front will push much below average
temperatures southward into the Central Plains and Upper to Mid
Mississippi Valley over the next two days. There is even potential for a
few record cold maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday from southeast
Wyoming into southwest to southern Nebraska and across northern Minnesota.

No let up to the fire weather risk and poor air quality from ongoing fires
for the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.
These regions will continue to see dry conditions with low relative
humidities and gusty winds, supporting the threat for additional wildfires
and exacerbating efforts to control ongoing fires. Red Flag warnings and
air quality alerts are in effect across portions of Washington State,
Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and Arizona.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 06 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024 – 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024

…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic
Flash and Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds
across portions of north Florida and the Southeast…

…There’s potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms
across portions of the Northern High Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern
California and the Southwest; Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley…

Tropical Storm Debby is expected to track up along the Southeast Coast
over the next couple of days. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across
southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely
result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in considerable flooding impacts from northern North Carolina
through portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through
Sunday morning. Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10-20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches. A High Risk (at
least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for parts of southeastern Georgia through eastern South Carolina and into
far southeastern North Carolina today. On Wednesday, another High Risk
will encircle portions of South Carolinas central coast up into
southeastern North Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov.

A cold front will stall out over the Northeast and act as a focus for
thunderstorm activity from the Ohio Valley through the northern
Mid-Atlantic and into parts of the Tri-State area today. Tropical moisture
from Debby will interact with the stationary front in the Northeast and
likely generate heavy rainfall over parts of eastern Pennsylvania,
northern Maryland, New Jersey, and the NYC metro area. A Moderate Risk (at
least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for the aforementioned areas. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of northern Ohio,
Pennsylvania and western/northern New Jersey, where damaging wind gusts
and hail are possible. A Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall
is also in effect for parts of southern New Jersey, northeastern Maryland
and northern Delaware, where lingering showers may produce isolated flash
flooding Wednesday morning before the stationary front turns cold and
moves offshore.

Elsewhere, mid-level energy propagating over the Northern High Plains will
support thunderstorm activity today. The Storm Prediction Center issued a
Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
strong to severe wind outflow gusts with this activity. Isolated instances
of Flash Flooding are also possible from these storms. Surface high
pressure will penetrate the Northern/Central Plains over the coming days,
and usher in a cooler airmass with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s,
representing a 15-25 degree departure from normal. Warm air will remain
locked in over much of the southern tier states with a heat wave
developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.

Monsoonal storms are forecast to continue across parts of the Southwest
and Four Corners this week. Shortwave energy will promote excessive
rainfall across southern Arizona today. A Slight Risk of Flash Flooding is
in effect for far southern Arizona as a result. Upper-level ridging across
much of the Southwestern United States will continue to generate Excessive
Heat, particularly across portions of central and southern California,
into the Desert Southwest and the Intermountain West where Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 05 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 05 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 07 2024

..Hurricane Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic Flash and
Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across
portions of Florida and the Southeast…

…There’s potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms
across portions of the Upper Midwest, Lower Great Lakes and Northeast
through Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern
California and the Southwest and Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley…

Hurricane Debby will make landfall this morning over Florida’s Big Bend
region, where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Life-threatening storm
surge is possible along portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast, where Storm
Surge Warnings are in effect. Widespread thunderstorms are likely to
continue across Florida and spread into Georgia and the Southeast Coast
today. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for portions of northern Florida through
southern/coastal Georgia and into South Carolina’s central coast, where
the chance for tornadoes is greatest. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm conditions
are are expected along Florida’s west coast including the Tampa Bay area
today.

Potentially historic heavy rainfall, associated with Hurricane Debby,
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central
and northern Florida through the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas through
Friday. There are High Risks (at least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall
stretching from Florida’s Big Bend region up through coastal Georgia and
into South Carolina’s southern coast today followed by another on Tuesday
along the Georgia–South Carolina Coastline. Anywhere between 7-15 inches
of rain, with locally higher amounts, are possible from north-central
Florida to South Carolina’s northern coast over the next 48 hours. For
more information go to hurricanes.gov.

A slow moving cold front extending from the Northern High Plains to the
Northeast will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the northern tier states down to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic over the
next couple of days. Today, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop and potentially produce severe thunderstorms and Excessive
Rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast. Slight
Risks of Flash Flooding (at least 15%) and Severe Storms are in effect
over the aforementioned areas today. The threat for heavy rainfall shifts
into the New York Tri-State area on Tuesday where another Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect due to the potential involvement of
tropical moisture from Debby. A low pressure system is expected to develop
over the Northern High Plains of Montana on Tuesday and contribute to
supercell/severe thunderstorm activity that evening. Severe wind
gusts/hail will be the primary threats from these storms.

High temperatures will likely remain well below average across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next several days, while
Excessive Heat Risk grows across the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across the Desert Southwest
and portions of California’s southern/central Valley. Monsoonal storms are
likely to continue across the Southwest and Four Corners region this week
with a Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall over far south-central Arizona on
Tuesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 04 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 04 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024

…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause considerable Flash and Urban
Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions
of Florida and the Southeast Coast beginning today…

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Upper
Midwest across the Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast on Monday
and Tuesday…

Tropical Storm Debby is currently forecast to strengthen while it tracks
along Florida’s Gulf Coast today. Debby may intensify into a Hurricane
Monday morning before making landfall near Florida’s Big Bend region,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm-surge
inundation is possible along portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Aripeka
to Indian Pass. Strong winds will likely cause significant damage to
unprotected infrastructure along the storm’s path. There’s a potential for
isolated tornadoes across western and northern portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Monday, which is consistent with the Storm Prediction
Center’s convective outlooks, which depict Slight Risks (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms for those days. There is a Moderate Risk (at least
40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding across portions of
northwestern Florida today where the bulk of Debby’s precip shield will
cause impacts. Debbie is forecast to slow and cause considerable to
historic Flash, Urban and river Flooding across portions of northern
Florida through southeastern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina on
Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of coastal
Georgia and South Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov

Elsewhere, a low pressure system, emerging from the Northern High Plains,
will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northern
Plains tonight before spreading storms into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes
and interior Northeast on Monday. There’s a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall as well as a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday.
Downstream of this, the attendant stationary front draped across the
interior Northeast will be the focus for more severe storms from Lake Erie
to New England where another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in
effect.

High temperatures will be below average across the northern tier states
this week in response to unsettled weather associated with the
aforementioned storms in the Northern Plains. Temperatures in the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will be above
average as southerly flow persists out ahead of the descending cold front
to the north. Numerous warm overnight lows may tie or break existing
records in the Desert Southwest over the next couple of nights. Monsoonal
rain continues over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region this
week with isolated Flash Flooding possible over vulnerable surfaces
including burn scars and slot canyons.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 03 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 03 2024 - 12Z Mon Aug 05 2024

...A dangerous heat wave shifts from the Paciifc Northwest to the Great
Plains...

...Stormy conditions and flash flood potential across portions of the
Eastern U.S. this weekend...

...Potential Tropical Cylone Four will bring hazardous rainfall, strong
winds and life threatening storm surge inundation to portions of Florida
this weekend...

Upper-level ridging over the West will promote above average temperatures
across the region this weekend. Upper troughing over the East Pacific will
work in combination with the Western ridge to produce high temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s across much of the Northwest into the
Northern/Central Plains today. Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to low
70s will represent 20-30 degree anomalies for much of the Northern Great
Basin/Rockies/High Plains tonight. The lack of overnight relief from the
heat will affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. A small bit of mid-level energy will contribute to a severe
thunderstorm threat over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this
afternoon/evening. Damaging winds, isolated Flash Flooding and hail will
be the primary threats there. Shortwave energy spinning across the
northern periphery of a mid-level closed high pressure bubble will bring
some scattered showers, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to the
northern tier of the country beginning on Sunday. Meanwhile, warm air
shifts into the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through early
next week.

Elsewhere, upper troughing over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley will promote
scattered thunderstorms up and down the East Coast today. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms are in effect from the
Tri-State area down to the Florida Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts and
Flash Flooding will be the primary concerns from these storms. Some
lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday with only an
isolated threat of severe storms and Flash Flooding across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

Tropical Depression Four is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm
as it tracks west of the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Heavy rainfall,
strong winds and life threatening storm surge inundation are all possible
along the western coast of the state beginning today. Heavy rainfall,
strong winds and storm surge are also possible over northern Florida and
the Southeast U.S. Coast Sunday evening into early next week. Tropical
Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Watches are in effect along Florida's Gulf
Coast while Tropical Storm Watches extend farther out across the other
Gulf Coast states. For more information go to hurricanes.gov.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 02 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 02 2024 – 12Z Sun Aug 04 2024

…A dangerous heat wave will impact much of the East Coast, Southeast and
Northwest through tonight…

…Excessive Rainfall concerns across portions of the Eastern U.S. this
weekend…

…Monsoonal storms continue across the Southwest/Four Corners through the
weekend…

A familiar upper-level pattern over the lower 48, with ridging in the West
and troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valley, will support
heat waves and excessive rainfall concerns this weekend. High temperatures
in the 100s will represent a 10-15 degree positive anomaly across the
Northwest today. Some of these temperatures will tie or break records.
Overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s will tie or break
widespread temperature records across the West tonight as well. The
combination of very hot daytime conditions and a lack of overnight relief
could harm those without adequate shelter or hydration. Cloudy conditions
will support near record breaking warmth over portions of the coastal
Northeast and Florida peninsula tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front moving through
the Midwest today and spread eastward toward the East Coast. Slight Risks
of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding are in effect for portions
of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast today due to the
higher rates within some of the storms that move through those areas.
Orographic lift over portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians will
promote additional Flash Flooding concerns, hence another Slight Risk area
for parts of eastern Tennessee, southeastern Kentucky, southwestern
Virginia, western North Carolina and northern Alabama/Georgia. The cold
front slows down across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Saturday and becomes
the focus for additional Excessive Rainfall concerns, due in part to a
significant moisture plume from the Tropics. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect for portions of southeastern Virginia down into the
Carolina/Georgia Piedmont.

A tropical disturbance is forecast to impact the Florida Peninsula
beginning late tonight when heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are supposed
to spread across southern Florida and eventually work their way up the
peninsula on Saturday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
for portions of southern Florida on Saturday as a result. Monsoonal
moisture is expected to continue flowing into the Southwest/Four Corners
region this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may lead to
isolated Flash Flooding across portions of the aforementioned areas,
particularly burn scars and slot canyons.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 01 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 01 2024 – 12Z Sat Aug 03 2024

…Dangerous heat engulfs much of the country as one heatwave continues
from the Southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and another begins
in the West…

…Severe weather and flash flooding expected for portions of the Midwest
Thursday…

… Locally heavy monsoonal shower and thunderstorm chances continue for
the Southwest…

Widespread, dangerous heat will unfortunately be the main weather story
for much of the country this week as one heatwave continues for the
Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, and
another heatwave begins over portions of the West. A strong upper-level
ridge will remain in place over the southern-tier of the U.S. the next
couple days, allowing for high temperatures to reach into the low 100s
over portions of the Southern Plains/High Plains, the upper 90s to low
100s for the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the upper 90s for the Southeast
into the southern Mid-Atlantic. High humidity values for areas east of the
High Plains will bring heat indices into the 105 to 110 degree range,
potentially as high as 115 for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, with
many areas under heat-related advisories or warnings. The combination of
hot temperatures/high heat indices, as well as very warm morning lows only
dropping into the mid- to upper 70s, will be dangerous to anyone without
access to adequate air conditioning. Temperatures warming into the upper
80s/low 90s with periods of higher humidity will lead to some muggy,
potentially dangerous conditions for portions of New England as well,
particularly on Friday. An approaching cold front will bring relief to
northern portions of the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on
Friday, with the expectation the heat wave will begin to wane for most
locations through the weekend.

In the West, an upper-level ridge will also begin to build northward,
sending high temperatures across much of the northern tier of the West
10-20 degrees above mid-Summer averages. Forecast highs Thursday are into
the upper 90s/low 100s for the inland Pacific Northwest/northern Great
Basin and mid- to upper 90s for the northern Rockies/High Plains.
Temperatures will get even hotter on Friday, with highs into the low to
mid-100s for most locations. Many near record-tying/breaking highs are
possible. Similar to areas further east, many heat-related advisories and
warnings have been issued as this heat will also reach dangerous levels
for the general public. Smoke from area wildfires will also continue to
plague parts of the region, resulting in hazy conditions and poor air
quality, and the risk for more wildfires will increase as the hot, dry
conditions settle in.

An upper-level low/accompanying surface frontal system traversing the
northern side of the ridge over the southern tier of the U.S. will bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Midwest Thursday. High
surface moisture leading to very strong instability will support intense
thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front, with lingering outflow boundaries from
overnight convection helping to trigger individual and clusters of storms.
Sufficient shear with the passing upper-level wave will lead to the threat
of severe weather, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm
Prediction Center covering Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and southwestern
Ohio, mainly for the threat of some damaging winds. The threat for some
intense downpours given the high moisture/strong storms, and potential for
some more widespread, organized clusters of storms, will lead to some
heavier rainfall totals and the risk for flash flooding. Many of these
locations have seen recent heavy rainfall given repeated rounds of
organized storms passing through, leading to wetter antecedent conditions
more sensitive to any additional rainfall. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) covers much of same region from northeastern Illinois
southeast through Indiana/western Ohio and into eastern Kentucky. Some
slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall under the passing upper-low
may also lead to some flash flooding, with the Slight Risk extending
northwest into southern Wisconsin. Some more isolated storms will be
possible further east into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
Additional storms will be possible across the region Friday as the system
shifts eastward, with a greater chance of storms spreading into the
Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Some isolated severe storms and
instances of flash flooding will be possible. A lingering upper-level
weakness will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over Florida and
portions of the Southeast Thursday, with moderate to locally heavy
rainfall possible, especially over the Florida Peninsula. More widely
scattered storms will remain possible Friday.

Persistent Monsoonal conditions over the Southwest will continue to bring
daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Sufficient moisture across the
region will lead to the threat for some locally heavy downpours and an
isolated flash flooding, particularly over terrain sensitive areas such as
burn scars. A lingering frontal boundary will lead to some storms over
portions of the southern High Plains as well on Thursday, and a subtle
upper-level wave along the edge of the upper-ridging will bring storm
chances northwestward into portions of California Friday, particularly in
vicinity of the Sierra Nevada. Similar to areas further north, forecast
high temperatures more broadly in the region will be trending hotter and
above average, with 90s and low 100s for most locations outside of the
California Coast, and mid-100s to low 110s for the Desert Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Jul 31 2024 – 00Z Fri Aug 02 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday evening and
Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday evening and
Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England and Southwest on Wednesday and over parts of the Ohio Valley on
Thursday…

…There are Excessive Heat Watches over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and Excessive Heat Warnings/Advisories over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the
Southeast.

A front with a wave of low pressure over the Northern High Plains will
move slowly eastward to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes by Thursday. The
associated boundary will aid in triggering showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley,
and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains
and Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, there is a
threat of severe thunderstorm wind gust of 65 knots, or greater over parts
of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley and hail two inches, or
greater over parts of the Central Plains.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over parts of the
Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

As the wave of low-pressure moves eastward overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, the system will create showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorms wind gust of 65 knots or greater
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley. Additionally, there is a threat of hail two inches or greater over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Northern Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of these areas from Wednesday through Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, upper-level energy and a plume of moisture moving over New
England will produce areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Similarly, upper-level energy and a plume of moisture will create areas of
heavy rain over parts of the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest
from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Thursday, the wave of low pressure continues to move eastward,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley.
Therefore, on Thursday, the SPC issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Pacific Northwest,
spawning Excessive Heat Watches over parts of the region. The upper-level
ridging will aid in creating intense and widespread heat across portions
of the West late this week. High temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal
are expected across the Northwest and Northern High Plains later this
week, where several daily record high temperatures are forecast.

Moreover, the upper-level high will develop over the central portion of
the country, which will foster Excessive Heat Warnings/ Heat Advisories
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast. The associated
dangerous heat, with high temperatures exceeding 100F and heat indices
near 110F, persists over the South-Central Plains and Mid-South through
Thursday. Multiple days of Major to Extreme HeatRisk are forecast for
portions of the southern Plains to the Southeast. These levels of heat
mean health impacts become more likely in general, and may occur in ANYONE
without adequate hydration or cooling

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 30 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 30 2024 – 12Z Thu Aug 01 2024

…Daily scattered flash flooding and severe weather from the Mid-Atlantic
into the Northern Plains/Midwest…

…Dangerous mid-summer heat wave to expand across the Central U.S. and
Southeast; more hot weather across the West…

An active, unsettled pattern will continue across the eastern half of the
Lower 48 as an elongated frontal system with access to abundant moisture
and instability leads to repeat bouts of thunderstorms through midweek.
This will maintain a daily threat of scattered (level 2/5) flash flooding
and severe weather from the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Midwest,
and Northern Plains through Thursday. Daily isolated flash flooding
chances should also continue across the Southwest tied to the monsoon.

Thunderstorms aside, heat will become the big story over the Central and
Southeast U.S. this week as an upper-level high strengthens. Forecast high
temperatures Monday and Tuesday are expected to soar into the triple
digits over the Central Plains, with upper-90s to low 100s to the west
over much of the High Plains, and mid-to upper 90s for the Middle and
Lower Mississippi Valley. High humidity values over the Mississippi Valley
and eastern portions of the plains will lead to heat indices in the
105-110 degree range, potentially as high as 115 for some locations, with
widespread Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories in place. Warm morning
lows only dropping into the mid- to upper 70s will provide little relief
from the heat overnight. This combination of hotter temperatures to the
west, higher heat indices to the east, and the multi-day duration of this
heat wave will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but
also the general public, particularly those without adequate air
conditioning.

West of the Continental Divide, a troughing pattern and associated cool
weather over the West will give way to widespread warm weather by Thursday
as a stationary Pacific front washes away beneath widespread height rises
across the region. By Friday, we can expect high temperatures in the 90’s
and triple digits across much of the West which could challenge numerous
records across the region. Unfortunately, smoke from area wildfires will
also continue to plague parts of the West, particularly over portions of
the northern Great Basin, resulting in poor air quality and areas of
reduced visibility.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.