48 Hour Weather Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to produce significant high wind
impacts and heavy mountain snow across the Northwest, while a strong
atmospheric river takes aim at northern California by Wednesday…

…Potent storm system over the northern Plains to produce gusty winds and
locally heavy snow throughout the region before a redeveloping area of low
pressure brings unsettled weather to the Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, and Northeast from midweek onward…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential continues throughout portions
of the central and eastern Gulf Coast today…

No shortage of active weather across the Nation this week as two separate
strong low pressure systems produce hazardous conditions in the form of
high winds, heavy rain, and snowfall. Starting with the Pacific Northwest,
a rapidly strengthening and extremely powerful low pressure system
forecast to pass roughly 300 miles west of the Olympic Peninsula tonight
is anticipated to begin impacting the region today. Damaging winds with
gusts up to 70 mph are possible across northern California, as well as
parts of Oregon and Washington, with the highest winds expected along the
coast and high terrain. These winds are likely to produce numerous power
outages and tree damage in the most impacted regions. When combined with
heavy snowfall at the higher elevations, blizzard conditions are in the
forecast throughout the Washington Cascades. As an associated frontal
boundary slides southeastward and stalls near northern California on
Wednesday, a deep and continuous plume of anomalous atmospheric moisture
content will flow into the Redwood Coast of California and northern
mountain ranges of the Golden State. Heavy rain and rising snow levels
will increase the threat of numerous floods and potential mudslides,
exacerbated by the duration of heavy rainfall through the end of the week.
In fact, WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northwest California on Thursday in order to further
highlight this flooding threat. Residents and visitors throughout the
Northwest are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings, listen to
advice from local officials, and avoid traveling through hazardous weather
conditions if possible.

In the north-central U.S. another potent low pressure system is lifting
northward and producing unsettled weather of its own across the Upper
Midwest and northern Plains today. A tight pressure gradient being
produced by the storm is forecast to create strong winds across much of
Nebraska, eastern Montana, and the Dakotas through Wednesday with maximum
wind gusts up to 65 mph possible. Strong winds may also overlap with
moderate to locally heavy snow throughout North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota as the storm system stalls tonight over south-central Canada.
Probabilities for at least 6 inches of total snowfall are high (>70%)
across northern North Dakota. Meanwhile, scattered showers are forecast to
spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually the
Mid-Atlantic ahead of an advancing cold front today. By Wednesday night, a
redeveloping low pressure system rapidly strengthening over the Great
Lakes will help produce another round of precipitation over the Great
Lakes, central Appalachians and Northeast through the end of the week. The
greatest impacts from this precipitation is expected throughout the higher
elevations of West Virginia and western Maryland, where up to a foot of
snowfall is possible through Friday.

Elsewhere, heavy rain and a risk for scattered flash floods remains a
concern across the central and eastern Gulf Coast as a cold front, weak
area of low pressure, and ample atmospheric moisture content spark
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall
rates through tonight. The greatest risk for flash flooding specifically
exists from far eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with
urban and poor drainage regions most susceptible to rapid water rises.

Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride this week as well above
average temperatures are found in the East before an advancing cold front
knocks readings down below average by Thursday. Meanwhile, cooler
temperatures over much of the West are forecast to return to near normal
as upper ridging builds into place.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 18 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024

…A potent storm system over the central U.S. today will create chances
for heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds, while moderate
snowfall is possible across the northern Plains by Tuesday…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding potential exists throughout the central
and eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days…

…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to impact the Northwest with high
winds and heavy mountain snow, while an atmospheric river takes aim at
northern California by Wednesday…

An amplified weather pattern and two separate strong storm systems are set
to impact the Nation during the first half of this week. First, a deep low
pressure system ejecting out of West Texas early this morning is
anticipated to further organize over the central U.S. today and produce
areas of heavy rain, severe weather, and gusty winds to the
southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms forming along an attached cold
front may contain damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes between
central Oklahoma and North Texas today. This region is where the Storm
Prediction Center has hoisted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms. As the system progresses northward into the Upper Midwest
on Tuesday, showers are also forecast to spread north throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, cold air working into the western
side of the storm will likely allow for precipitation to fall as snow
across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota into Wednesday.
Snowfall may also be accompanied by gusty winds, leading to lower
visibility on roadways. Current snowfall probabilities for at least 4
inches of snow are greatest (70-90%) across north-central North Dakota.

As the associated cold front pushes eastward through Tuesday, numerous
showers and thunderstorms interacting with a surge of moisture being
lifted northward from the Gulf of Mexico could contain intense rainfall
rates capable of producing flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is most likely
tonight across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with the threat
expanding east to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Scattered flash floods
are most likely throughout low-lying and urban regions. Residents and
visitors are reminded to have multiple ways to receive warnings and never
drive across flooded roadways.

For much of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern Rockies, a
cold front pushing across the region today and enhanced onshore flow will
allow for unsettled weather to continue ahead of a powerful storm system
forecast to develop off the coast of the Northwest on Tuesday. This
appetizer of precipitation to start the workweek will mainly include the
potential for moderate to heavy snowfall across the Cascades and northern
Rockies. However, by Tuesday night the rapidly strengthening Pacific low
pressure system will aid in producing high winds across the Pacific
Northwest and increasing precipitation intensity. Wind gusts up to 70 mph
are possible across parts of northern California and Oregon, with strong
winds also expected over parts of western Washington. These winds will
have the potential to knock down trees and produce power outages. Heavy
snowfall with amounts potentially exceeding two feet are possible over the
northern California ranges and Cascades. By Wednesday, an associated
atmospheric rive event is expected to take shape and direct continuous
Pacific moisture towards northern California and southwest Oregon.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected through
Wednesday across this region, which could produce areas of river flooding
and increase the risk of mudslides. Heavy rain and the associated weather
hazards from this atmospheric river event are also expected to continue
beyond midweek.

Below average temperatures are forecast to remain over much of the western
U.S. over the next few days while gradually spreading eastward into the
Great Plains. Meanwhile, high pressure over the East will continue to
create mild and dry conditions through Tuesday as rainfall chances enter
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 12 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024

…An Atmospheric River will bring heavy, low elevation rain and high
elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern California
beginning Tuesday evening…

…Showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding concerns to the Lower Ohio, Tennessee, and
Mississippi Valleys Wednesday…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, cold
fronts bring more seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West
today…

A frontal system moving through the West bringing light to moderate lower
elevation wintry mix and higher elevation snow to the northern Rockies and
Great Basin this morning will continue eastward today, with precipitation
chances spreading into the central Rockies by Tuesday evening. At the same
time, another Pacific frontal system and accompanying Atmospheric River
will approach the West, bringing a wave of Pacific moisture and triggering
increasingly heavier lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation
mountain snow. The system will move inland bringing an expanding area of
lower elevation/coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow to northern
California and a wintry mix into the northern Rockies and Great Basin
through Wednesday. Favorable upslope regions along the coastal ranges and
Cascades will see locally heavy rainfall and the threat of some isolated
flooding today, expanding southward into coastal northern California on
Wednesday.

Some lingering light rain/snow showers may continue through Tuesday
morning across the Interior Northeast and Maine as a low pressure system
departs the region. Some heavier showers and thunderstorms are also
expected along the central Gulf Coast as moist flow from the Gulf
continues along a wavy frontal boundary. More widespread precipitation
chances will begin to pick up Tuesday evening as the first frontal system
over the West begins to move eastward out over the Plains. Initially
isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight as
the system moves eastward towards the Mississippi Valley and Gulf moisture
return intensifies into Wednesday morning. More widespread storms with
locally heavy rainfall are expected across the Lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Mid-South, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday, with
some isolated flash flooding possible especially given wet antecedent
conditions from recent rainfalls. More light to moderate rainfall is
likely over the Great Lakes with lower instability and available moisture.
The system will push eastward towards the Appalachians by Thursday
morning.

Much of the central and eastern U.S. will continue to see above average
high temperatures of 5-15 degrees over the next couple of days. Forecast
highs range from the 40s in the Great Lakes, 50s in the northern Plains,
60s for the central Plains, 70s for Texas and the Southeast, and 80s along
the Gulf Coast. Highs will be more seasonable for the Northeast and
Midwest Tuesday following a cold front passage as highs mainly remain in
the 40s and 50s. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures will also come to
the Carolinas and Southeast Wednesday, with highs dropping into the upper
50s to mid-60s. The multiple frontal systems will keep temperatures cooler
across most of the West as well, with highs Tuesday mostly in the 40s and
50s for the Pacific Northwest and interior locations, 60s for coastal
California, and 60s and 70s for the Desert Southwest. Conditions will
moderate by around 5-10 degrees on Wednesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 11 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 11 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024

…An Atmospheric River will bring a couple rounds of heavy, lower
elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest
and northern California…

…Lingering precipitation chances for the Northeast and Carolinas Monday
with some locally heavier rainfall along the central Gulf Coast…

…Above average temperatures continue for much of the country, more
seasonable temperatures for the Northeast and the West on Tuesday…

A pair of Pacific storm systems will help to usher in waves of moisture
into the Pacific Northwest and northern California in an active
Atmospheric River pattern over the next couple of days. Moderate to heavy
coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow is already ongoing over the
Pacific Northwest this morning and will continue to spread inland as well
as into northern California throughout the day Monday. A moderate lower
elevation rain/wintry mix and higher elevation snow will also spread into
portions of the northern Rockies and Great Basin by Monday evening. Some
locally heavier snowfall totals of 8-12″+ will be possible for the
Cascades with more moderate totals elsewhere. Precipitation will linger
into Tuesday for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin as
well as spread into the central Rockies as this system continues inland.
Then, on Tuesday evening, a second system will approach the Pacific
Northwest bringing the next wave of moisture inland. Showers and even some
thunderstorms along the coast and upslope portions of the Coastal Ranges
will lead to some heavier rainfall totals late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, with an isolated threat for flooding. Additional heavy snowfall
is also expected for the Cascades.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger in the Carolinas and along the
central Gulf Coast ahead of a cold front pushing off the East Coast
through the day Monday. Higher moisture along the Gulf could lead to some
locally heavier downpours. A secondary cold front to the northwest will
also bring some additional light to moderate showers to the interior
Northeast, which may include a wintry mix by Monday evening. Elsewhere,
some isolated showers and storms will be possible across the
central/northern Plains and Mississippi Valley late Tuesday/early
Wednesday morning as the first storm system over the West reaches the
region.

Forecast high temperatures Monday continue to remain above average by
around 5-15 degrees for much of the country. Some of the most unseasonably
warm highs will be throughout New England, with highs in the 50s and 60s,
and the Mid-Atlantic, with highs into the 60s and 70s. Otherwise,
temperatures range from the 40s and 50s in the northern Plains/Midwest;
the 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin,
and California; the 50s for the central Plains and Ohio Valley; and the
70s and 80s for the Desert Southwest, Texas, and the Southeast. A cold
front passing through the Northeast will bring much cooler, more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday, as highs fall into the 40s and 50s. The
Pacific system passing through the West will also bring some more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday, with highs falling into the 40s for the
Great Basin/northern Rockies and the 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024

…Wet Sunday for much of the eastern U.S., including beneficial rainfall
for the Northeast…

…An Atmospheric River will bring heavy coastal rain and high elevation
snowfall to portions of the Pacific Northwest beginning Sunday night…

…Above average temperatures will continue into next week for most of the
country…

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a low pressure
system/arcing frontal boundary through the Midwest south into the
Mississippi Valley early Sunday morning will continue eastward through the
day, bringing an expanding area of moderate to heavy rainfall over the
eastern U.S. The front will push eastward through the Ohio Valley/interior
Northeast and into New England and the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening,
bringing beneficial rainfall following many weeks of little to no
precipitation. Further south, the front will make slower progress and keep
additional storm chances focused over the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valleys following heavy rain Saturday. Moisture streaming northward from
the Gulf, influenced in part by Tropical Storm Rafael, will lead to some
locally heavy downpours, with isolated flash flooding possible. A
localized Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place over
central Louisiana where continued rainfall early Sunday over very
saturated grounds/ongoing flooding may lead to a few more scattered
instances of flash flooding. An additional area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected for portions of the coastal Carolinas/Georgia
and into Florida in vicinity of a wavy frontal boundary. Most of the
rainfall should come to an end by early Monday as the front begins to
clear the coast over the Northeast and moisture return decreases to the
south, though some lingering showers will remain possible for the interior
Northeast as a secondary cold front passes through.

Some light to moderate lower elevation rain showers and higher elevation
snows will continue over portions of the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies through Sunday afternoon as a wavy frontal boundary lingers in the
region. Then, a stronger Pacific storm system/Atmospheric River will
approach the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening bringing moderate to heavy
coastal rains by Sunday night. This system will continue inland into the
day Monday with an expanding area of precipitation across the Pacific
Northwest, northern Great Basin/Rockies, and northern/central California.
Favorable upslope areas along the coastal mountain ranges may see 2-3″ of
rain, with some potentially moderate to heavy accumulating snows for
higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rockies.
Another system just beyond the current forecast period looks to bring
another round of heavy rain and mountain snows mid-week.

Most areas of the country will continue to see temperatures 5-15 degrees
above average over the next couple of days. Forecast highs Sunday range
from the 50s for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, northern
Rockies/Plains, Great Lakes, and New England; the 60s in California,
central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic; and the 70s and 80s for the
Desert Southwest, Texas, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast.
Much of the East Coast will see even warmer highs on Monday as rain clears
out, with highs rising into the 60s for coastal New England and the 70s
for the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Georgia. One region that will remain
colder will be portions of the central/southern Rockies and High Plains
where grounds remain snow covered following this past Friday’s historic
storm, with highs mainly in the 40s to low 50s.