Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 21, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 21 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 21 2024 – 12Z Thu May 23 2024

…An increasing threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall as well
as high winds expected to overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest
today through tonight and into Wednesday morning…

…Severe weather and heavy rain threat will emerge across the southern
Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…Cool conditions with periods of shower and high elevation snow chances
from the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest…

…Well above average temperatures across the central Plains will be
replaced by cooler conditions but summer-like weather expected to continue
across the southern Plains to the Northeast…

A persistent weather pattern will continue to send energetic and
fast-moving weather systems onshore from the Pacific Ocean into the
Northwest through the short-range forecast period. These systems will
tend to intensify as they reach into the mid-section of the country. One
such system is developing and tracking toward the northeast across the
central Plains this morning. The threat of severe weather and heavy rain
will be expanding toward the upper Midwest by tonight along with
increasingly windy conditions when the low pressure system is forecast to
become quite deep and intense. Thunderstorms that erupt ahead of a potent
cold front may contain damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few
tornadoes, from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, and especially over
Iowa, where the Storm prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of
severe thunderstorms for later today. Heavy rain may also lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding through tonight across the upper
Midwest. The center of the system will begin to move into southern Canada
by Wednesday morning with the heavy rain threat quickly decreasing across
the Great Lakes but the winds will take extra time to subside there.

As the low pressure system begins to move away into southern Canada on
Wednesday, the trailing cold front will become nearly stationary across
the southern Plains where the next phase of severe weather and excessive
rainfall is forecast to emerge. It appears that these threats will expand
toward the mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday night where thunderstorms will
tend to become slow-moving.

Meanwhile, cool and unsettled weather underneath a broad upper trough is
anticipated to remain locked-in over the Northwest and Rockies through at
least midweek. Snow is possible into the higher elevations of Wyoming and
Colorado today. Another upper trough will then bring the next round of
mountain snows and low-elevation rain into the Northwest on Wednesday
before overspreading the northern Rockies by early on Thursday where snow
levels could drop to around 7000 feet. High temperatures in these regions
are also expected to remain on the cooler side and 10 to 25 degrees below
average.

For areas south and east of the main storm system impacting the central
U.S. this week, highs are expected to soar above average and into
potentially record-breaking territory for certain spots. Widespread highs
into the 80s and low 90s are forecast from the Midwest and Deep South to
the Northeast through Wednesday, with mid-to-upper 90s and triple digits
in parts of South Texas and the southern High Plains. This heat could be
particularly dangerous for people dealing with a loss of power in parts of
Texas. Warm overnight temperatures will offer little relief and high
humidity could also lead to heat index readings over 110 degrees.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 20, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 20 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 20 2024 – 12Z Wed May 22 2024

…Continued severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
central U.S. into mid-week…

…Cool conditions with periods of shower and storm chances from the
Rockies to the Pacific Northwest…

…Well above average, Summer-like temperatures to start the week across
much of the central/eastern U.S….

An energetic upper-level pattern featuring multiple shortwaves emitting
from a broader long-wave trough over the western U.S. will continue a
period of active weather over the central U.S. this week. An initial
shortwave/accompanying surface frontal system will bring showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region by early
Monday. A few more robust thunderstorms will be possible immediately ahead
of the wave over northeastern Illinois and adjacent Wisconsin/Indiana,
where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5) for the threat of some damaging winds and large hail.
Some locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will also be
possible. Further west, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High
Plains as the long-wave trough further amplifies, helping to reinforce a
frontal boundary draped across the region. Moist upslope flow north of
this boundary is expected to lead to thunderstorms by Monday afternoon,
with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) over northeastern
Colorado and southwestern Nebraska as some of the more robust storms may
produce very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
A broader Slight Risk extends northeastward along the front through the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Increasing storm coverage Monday
evening with the potential for some locally heavy downpours will also
bring the threat for some isolated flash flooding from northeastern
Colorado northeast into northwestern Iowa. Moisture spreading
northwestward into portions of the northern High Plains/Rockies will bring
moderate precipitation chances here as well, with some locally heavy
snowfall totals possible for higher mountain elevations.

Another shortwave ejecting from the longwave western trough will bring a
broader, greater chance for severe weather and flash flooding to portions
of the Midwest Tuesday. The accompanying surface low pressure/frontal
system will deepen and lift northeastward from the Plains into the Upper
Midwest, with an expansive warm sector from the Southern Plains
northeastward through the Lower Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
Both supercells and more organized convective systems are expected amidst
strengthening low and upper-level wind fields and strong instability. An
Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place for the threat of tornadoes,
some strong, significant damaging winds, and large hail. In addition, a
deep influx of moisture as well as the strong forcing associated with the
deep surface low will help to promote heavy downpours. With more numerous
storms expected in vicinity of the surface low, a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued for portions of central/southern
Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin for the risk of some scattered
instances of flash flooding. Lingering shower and thunderstorm chances
will also extend back west through the central Plains into the
central/northern Rockies.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms will remain possible over the Florida
Peninsula through at least Tuesday. An upper-low/frontal system dropping
southward from northwestern Canada will spread showers and storms into the
Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin Tuesday, with some locally heavy
rainfall possible along the coastal ranges and Cascades. A broad area of
well above average temperatures is expected over much of the
central/eastern U.S. with ridging in place ahead of the trough over the
West. Highs in the 80s and even low 90s will be common, even in more
northerly locations from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Sweltering
heat continues over portions of southern Texas into the southern High
Plains as highs soar into the 90s and 100s. In contrast, much cooler,
below average temperatures are expected to the north and west of the
system over the Plains under the influence of the western trough. Highs
from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin, northern/central Rockies,
and northern/central Plains will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs will be
closer to average in the Southwest with 80s and 90s forecast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 19, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 19 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 19 2024 – 12Z Tue May 21 2024

…Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
Central U.S. into early next week…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas while
expanding into the southern High Plains…

An energetic upper-level pattern will bring a couple rounds of storms to
the central U.S. for Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, moist return flow
following a warm front moving northward through the Plains and ahead of a
dryline over the High Plains will provide more than enough instability to
trigger robust thunderstorm development over the Central Plains.
Increasing upper-level winds will promote supercells with the threat of
large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms are also expected to grow upscale
into one or more organized convective systems, bringing a heightened
threat for potentially widespread, significant damaging winds later Sunday
evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk
of severe weather (level 4/5). Storm chances will shift northeastward into
the Upper Midwest overnight Sunday and into the Great Lakes by Monday
following an initial upper-wave/accompanying surface frontal system. An
amplifying long-wave trough over the West will help to enhance lee
cyclogenesis over the High Plains bringing another chance of storms to the
Central Plains/Missouri Valley by Monday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center has included a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some more
damaging winds and large hail, and possibly a tornado. Some locally heavy
downpours will also be possible, particularly from the Central Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday and the Central Plains once again
Monday, with an isolated chance of flash flooding.

The active upper-level pattern will also bring some precipitation chances
to the Northern/Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin over the next
couple of days. Rainfall should generally remain light to moderate, though
some locally heavier storms will be possible especially over Wyoming on
Monday. Some snow is expected for higher mountain elevations. To the east,
an area of low pressure lingering just off the Atlantic coast of the
Southeast with a trailing frontal boundary moving through Florida will
bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday. Storm chances
will decrease overnight Sunday and into the day Monday from north to south
as the front pushes southward, expected to clear the coast by Tuesday
morning.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
from southern Texas into the southern High Plains the next couple of days.
Highs in the 90s with high humidity values for areas closer to the coast
will bring heat indices into the 105-110 degree range, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for South Florida Sunday. While not as humid,
temperatures will soar into the 100s further inland into west Texas/the
southern High Plains. Some record-tying/breaking temperatures are
possible. While not as hot, conditions will still be well above average
more broadly across the central/eastern U.S. Highs in 80s will be common,
even into more northerly locations like the Great Lakes and the interior
Northeast. One exception will be where onshore flow keeps things a bit
cooler along the East Coast, with highs in the 60s and 70s expected from
coastal New England south into the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Carolinas.
Highs over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will remain cool Sunday
behind a cold front, with highs in the 50s and 60s. These cooler
temperatures will spread southward into the Great Basin Monday. Highs in
the 80s and 90s are forecast south of the front over the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 18, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat May 18 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 18 2024 – 12Z Mon May 20 2024

…Unsettled weather with chances for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms continues across the Southeast Saturday…

…Severe weather potential returns to the Central Plains on Sunday…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas,
building into the southern High Plains this weekend…

A wet Saturday is in store for the Southeast as an upper-level wave and
associated surface frontal system focused along the Gulf Coast lead to a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Rich moisture along and south of
this boundary may lead to some locally heavy downpours, with a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place for portions of southern
Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. An expected
round of widespread, organized thunderstorms over wet soils from storms
already occurring overnight Friday will lead to the threat of some
scattered instances of flash flooding. Some storms will also carry the
threat for damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two, with a Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) extending eastward further into
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will be possible elsewhere to the north of the boundary, with a few
additional isolated instances of flash flooding possible. Additional
showers will expand northward into the Mid-Atlantic, and onshore flow
ahead of a system over the Atlantic will bring showers to New England as
well, but these should remain lighter than those over the Southeast. Storm
chances will taper off from west to east for much of the Southeast
overnight Saturday and into early Sunday as the northern part of the
frontal system pushes eastward into the Atlantic. A trailing cold front
will keep storms in the forecast for Florida Sunday.

Some light showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of another system
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
region Saturday, though these should generally remain light. Then, on
Sunday, additional upper-level energies approaching from the West will
bring a renewed chance of storms more broadly across the Northern/Central
Plains and into the Midwest on Sunday. Moist southerly return flow
following a warm front lifting into the Northern Plains/Midwest and ahead
of a dryline over the High Plains will lead to sufficient instability for
some robust thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center has
introduced an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for portions of
the Central Plains for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible,
particularly from the Central Plains northeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Some storms are also expected in the Northern Rockies
as these upper-level energies pass overhead, with some snow possible into
higher mountain elevations.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
southern Texas this weekend, and expand in coverage into portions of the
southern High Plains. Forecast highs will be in the 90s for Florida with
mid-90s to mid-100s in Texas, potentially record-tying/breaking levels.
When combined with the humidity, heat indices will soar to near 110 in
South Florida, with Heat Advisories in place for Saturday. While not quite
as hot, temperatures will still be well above average more broadly across
much of the country this weekend, particularly from the Central Plains
into the Midwest where highs in the 80s to near 90 will be common. Highs
will also be above average for portions of the West, with 70s and 80s in
the Great Basin/interior California and 90s to low 100s in the Desert
Southeast. More temperate, below average conditions are expected along
much of the East Coast, with 50s and 60s in New England and 60s and 70s
into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies
will also be cooler, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected here as well.
Variable temperatures are forecast for the Southeast due to ongoing
storms, with mainly 80s expected.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 17, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 17 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 17 2024 – 12Z Sun May 19 2024

…Potentially significant heavy rainfall threat spreads into portions of
southern Mississippi and western Alabama Friday…

…Wet start to the weekend for much of the eastern U.S. as well as the
Northern Rockies/Plains…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas into
this weekend…

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected Friday across much
of the eastern U.S., with the chance for moderate to heavy rainfall likely
to focus from the Lower Great Lakes south through the Appalachians into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and to the Gulf Coast. Starting along the Gulf
Coast, another day of potentially significant flash flooding is forecast
along and to the south of a warm front lifting slowly northward across the
region. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) has been issued
for portions of southern Mississippi and Alabama where a complex of
organized, heavy downpour-producing storms is forecast over already
saturated soils from storms Thursday night. The location of these
additional storms will likely be influenced by the storms ongoing
overnight, bringing higher uncertainty and highlighting the importance of
remaining aware of the most current forecast. To the north, an active
series of shortwaves will help encourage a couple additional areas of
locally heavier rainfall focused over portions of the central Appalachians
as well as the Lower Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in place for both locations for the
threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding. Storm chances will
shift southeastward on Saturday, bringing the focus for moderate to heavy
rainfall to the southern Mid-Atlantic south along the coastal Carolinas
into Georgia and lingering along the central Gulf Coast. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been included here for portions of the central Gulf
Coast where higher available moisture is most likely to lead to locally
heavier downpours on top of already saturated conditions from the previous
days’ rainfall. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding remain
possible.

Another frontal system will bring shower and storm chances to the Northern
Rockies/High Plains early Friday and the Northern Plains/Upper-Midwest by
Friday evening. Generally light to moderate rainfall is expected, with the
more moderate rain most likely near the Red River Valley. Cooler
conditions may lead to some snow mixing in through the Northern Rockies,
though no accumulations are expected. Precipitation chances will taper off
into Saturday as the bulk of the system lifts northeastward into Canada.
However, to the southwest, some showers and storms will be possible late
Saturday into early Sunday along a trailing frontal boundary stretching
into the Central Plains.

Conditions will continue to remain unseasonably hot and very much
Summer-like for portions of South Florida and southern Texas into the
weekend. Forecast highs Friday and Saturday range from the low to mid-90s
in South Florida and the mid 90s to mid-100s in southern Texas,
potentially record-tying/breaking temperatures. High humidity will bring
heat indices into the mid- to upper-100s for many locations.
Unfortunately, this pattern looks to continue not only into next week but
into the following week as well. While not quite as hot, temperatures will
also be well-above average and Summer-like across portions of the Northern
and Central Plains Friday, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s forecast.
These temperatures will shift eastward into the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. Variable highs are expected for the rest of the central/eastern
U.S., with above average conditions into the 70s for most of the Northeast
Friday and Saturday, though portions of the Mid-Atlantic will see a cool
down into the 60s Saturday. Slightly below average conditions following a
frontal passage over the Southern Plains and Southeast will continue
Friday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s, though a quick warm-up
into the mid-80s to 90s will come Saturday for the Southern Plains. In the
West, conditions will be below average in the Pacific Northwest and along
coastal California, with highs mainly in the 60s. However, above average
conditions are expected into the interior, with highs in the 70s to low
80s in the Great Basin, 80s for the central California valleys, and 90s to
low 100s for the Desert Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 16, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 16 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 16 2024 – 12Z Sat May 18 2024

…Severe thunderstorms along with significant flash flooding possible
across portions of East Texas into the Gulf States through Saturday
morning…

…Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S today…

…Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week

Rain will spread across the Southern Plains and Gulf states as a hot,
moist airmass settles in across the South. This airmass will also
attribute to stint of unusually hot temperatures for South Florida and
Texas with heat indices rising above 100 degrees. Owing to the combination
of oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight temperatures
in these areas, major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of
hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk
guidance. The abundant moisture streaming northward as a warm front will
pool over Texas and the western/central Gulf Coast which will further
enhance rainfall efficiency and intensity as the cold front over the
Southern Plains advances eastward. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected to fall over areas that are already
sensitive from recent heavy rain and flooding. WPC has High Risk in effect
for portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana today, which is a
level 4 out of 4 for significant impacts. There will likely be numerous
areas that will experience excessive rainfall and flooding. In additional
to the rainfall threat, there will also be strong to severe thunderstorms.
SPC has an Enhanced Risk in place for today with the primary threats are
large hail and damaging winds followed by a Slight Risk for Friday for the
central Gulf states. WPC had another Moderate Risk depicted over southern
Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued
thunderstorm development on Friday.

Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the southern
DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances over Eastern Long
Island and Coastal New England through the morning hours, with 2-3″ of
rain and isolated flash flooding possible as the storm wraps up offshore.
Much of this activity in the Northeast will remain steady stratiform
rainfall, with the bulk of robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Across the West, most locations will have
dry and calm weather.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 15, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 15 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 15 2024 – 12Z Fri May 17 2024

…Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southeast today…

…Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week

…Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas and
Louisiana on Thursday…

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the eastern U.S.
ahead of an advancing low pressure system lifting through the Tennessee
Valley/Mid-Atlantic region and a slow moving cold front through the
Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will also be ushered into the Plains
along and ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms may have the
potential to become severe and possibly produce areas of excessive
rainfall through Thursday morning. SPC has an Enhanced Risk for sever
weather for the Texas Panhandle and portions of Oklahoma and southern
Kansas with Slight Risks for the Carolinas and central Florida. Across
South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching
mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm weather, with heat
indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Localized Major heat-related
impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week
according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. Hazardous heat also will
build into South Texas today and Thursday as a warm front returns
northward from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in a very warm and moist
airmass into the region.

With the return of the heat there will also be an environment that will be
very conducive for widespread heavy rainfall for the Gulf Coast, Southern
Plains and Lower/Mid-Mississippi Valley which could be a potentially
significant heavy rain event. SPC has a Slight Risk in place across the
South and WPC has a Moderate (Level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for
eastern Texas and Louisiana. Areal averages of 2 to 4 inches is forecast
for the western Gulf states and locally higher amounts will be possible.
Over the past 2 weeks there has been a near continuous stream of heavy
rainfall which has made much of this part of the region sensitive to any
additional rain.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 14, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 14 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 14 2024 – 12Z Thu May 16 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the
Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Tuesday…

…Above-average temperatures expected for South Florida and the West…

Wet and unsettled weather is in store for the Gulf Coast and Southeast
today thanks to a slow-moving frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms
across this region have the potential to turn severe and will be capable
of producing heavy rain. SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather,
indicating the potential exists for multiple corridors of damaging winds,
very large hail, and a one or two tornadoes covering central/northern
Florida and southern Georgia. Additionally, WPC has a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall and local flash flooding highlighted for much of the
same area as the severe weather threat while a broader Marginal Risk spans
northward to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. As the system
advances eastward the threats for severe storms and heavy rainfall will
reduce for Wednesday to a Marginal Risk.

Showers and storms over the lower Missouri an Mid-Mississippi valleys to
the Ohio Valley will spread east through the Mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast today. A brief window of drier weather over the Mississippi
Valley into early Wednesday will be followed by the next round of showers
and storms that will begin to spread into the region by late Wednesday.
Before impacting the central U.S. on Wednesday, this previously noted
system will spread showers and storms followed by much cooler temperatures
from the Northern Rockies into Central Rockies and High Plains on Tuesday.

South Florida will continue to have well above-normal, with near to record
high temperatures through Wednesday. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will
spread across the western states reaching well-above normal highs across
the region by midweek.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 13, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 13 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 13 2024 – 12Z Wed May 15 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the
Gulf Coast today and the Southeast Tuesday…

…Above average temperatures expected for the West…

A strong upper low will push east across the central U.S. today
accompanied by a strengthening surface low pressure system that will sweep
across the southern tier. A warm front will lift north across the Gulf
Coast ahead of the system and prime the environment for showers and
thunderstorms today. Severe thunderstorms are expected from central and
east Texas across portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida
Panhandle, and the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook highlights
this area with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms with an
embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. Potential storm hazards will
include significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Additionally, anomalous moisture and high instability over the Gulf Coast
region will support waves of very heavy rainfall that will likely lead to
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. There is Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect from east Texas across
southern portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle and a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) in effect from the toe of the Louisiana boot to
the western Florida Panhandle. Heavy rainfall will also be possible
further north in parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest
along a slow moving frontal boundary draped over the top of the southern
low pressure system.

The low pressure system will continue to move east through mid-week, and
the warm front will lift north across the Southeast while the trailing
cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the
eastern U.S. on Tuesday, and although the severe thunderstorm threat will
be lower than it was on Monday, isolated severe storms with heavy rainfall
will be possible in the Southeast. By Tuesday night, showers and storms
will expand into the northeast as well, then the southern low pressure
system will push into the Atlantic on Wednesday.

Unsettled weather is also expected to develop in the Intermountain West
and the northern and central Plains as a frontal system moves south across
the region over the next few days. Low pressure will consolidate and
strengthen over the northern/central Plains on Tuesday and move towards
the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and this system will create chances
for showers and thunderstorms and high elevation snow.

Temperature-wise, highs will be generally above average for much of the
western third of the U.S. through mid-week, but cooler air will move into
the northern and central Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday in the wake of a
frontal system. Above average temperatures are also forecast for the
northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley today, but temperatures will
return to near average or dip slightly below average Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly below to near average for the
rest of the central and eastern U.S. with the exception of parts of
southern Texas and central and south Florida where temperatures will
remain above average. High temperatures in these areas will be in the 90s
and lower 100s, and some daily high temperature records may be tied or
broken.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 12, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 12 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 12 2024 – 12Z Tue May 14 2024

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few
days…

…Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West and
north-central United States…

Active weather is in the forecast for the southern U.S. over the next few
days as a low pressure system sweeps across the South into the Southeast.
A potent upper low will move over the Plains today, and low pressure will
deepen in the lee of the Rockies. The stalled frontal boundary across West
Texas and New Mexico will lift northeast as a warm front, and warm, moist
Gulf air will surge into the central/southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, and conditions
will be favorable for scattered strong to severe storms from eastern Texas
through central Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight
Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for this area. Potential storm
hazards include large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. In
addition to severe storm hazards, heavy rain falling on top of saturated
soils will likely lead to flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect from eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 3/4) area for
particularly sensitive areas in east Texas and western Louisiana. The low
pressure system will push eastwards this week, and the threat of severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall/flash flooding will shift across the
northern Gulf Coast to the Southeast.

To the north, a front moving south across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region will produce showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, and
precipitation will push into the Northeast Tuesday. Precipitation chances
will also expand across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday ahead of the southern
low pressure system. In the northern Rockies and northern Plains, a
separate frontal system will be moving south across the region Monday into
Tuesday, and low elevation showers and storms and high elevation snow are
expected. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday for
the West Coast and Southwest.

Summer-like temperatures will continue today across much of the West and
north-central U.S. with well-above average highs in the 70s and 80s, and
potentially the lower 90s for some. Below average temperatures are
forecast today for the rest of the central U.S. and much of the East
Coast. Temperatures will remain above average in the West through Tuesday,
but will begin to return to near normal Monday and Tuesday for the central
and eastern United States.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.