Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 11, 2024
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jun 11 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 – 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Florida through Wednesday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
Northern/Central California, Southwest, and western Texas on Tuesday…A front extending from the Southeast across the Gulf Coast into the
Southern Plains will make the eastern portion quasi-stationary over the
Southeast. At the same time, the western half dissipates on Wednesday. The
half of the west of the boundary will aid in creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of south-central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the eastern
portion of the front. The combination of tropical moisture and upper-level
impulses will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop along parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.In addition, the tropical moisture will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Northeast will help develop rain
with daytime-embedded thunderstorms over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.Elsewhere, another front over the Upper Mississippi Valley extending
southwestward to the Central Rockies/Great Basin will move eastward to the
Great Lakes and dissipate by Wednesday evening. On Tuesday, the front will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central Plains and Central Rockies.On Wednesday, moisture pooling along the boundary will create showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an added threat of hail, two inches or
greater, over the region. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop
from the Gulf Coast to the Southern High Plains on Wednesday.Furthermore, upper-level ridging will build over California and the
Southwest on Tuesday, and a subtropical high will develop over
North-Central Mexico, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories
over Northern/Central California and Southwest and Excessive Heat Watches
in western Texas. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor activities
must stay informed and take necessary precautions.