Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, 10 Days for the U.S. with some maps for the World posted late January 6, 2023 Plus the 28-Day Outlook

January 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 11 a.m. Monday, January 9, 2023.  Our weekend article is updated all weekend into Monday and usually Tuesday also.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours from Monday Morning’s NWS forecast. This article also includes World weather forecasts. We have more images displayed rather than simply providing the links to make it easier for readers to look ahead 28 days. We are also going to discuss the latest Western Water Forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Jan 09 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 09 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 11 2023

...Two major episodes of heavy precipitation expected to impact California
today and Tuesday...

...Periods of mountain snow spread across the Intermountain West and into
the northern and central Rockies...

...Well above average temperatures build into the southern Plains...

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, 10 Days for the U.S. with some maps for the World posted late December 30, 2022 Plus the 28 Day Outlook

December 31, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 7:40 p.m. EST Monday, January 2, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours from Monday afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article. We have also incorporated much of what we normally issue on Friday Night which is basically the same report but with more images displayed rather than simply providing the links to make it easier for readers to look ahead 28 days. Saturday NOAA issued their End of Month Report which includes the updated outlook for January 2023. We want to feature that over the weekend so we have provided a link in the NOAA End of Month Article back to this article so those readers can visit this article to get the short-term weather forecasts.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Jan 02 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 03 2023 - 00Z Thu Jan 05 2023

...A low pressure system is bringing heavy snow and ice across the
northern Plains to the upper Midwest as well as heavy rain and severe
weather across the South through the next couple of days...

...Unsettled weather continues along the West Coast with the next round of
heavy precipitation reaching northern California later on Wednesday...

Weekend Report Plus Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 23, 2022

December 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:49 p.m EST Tuesday, December 27, 2022  (regular Nightly Report will start tonight) (End of Month Report will be published Saturday Night)

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3  and   Days 1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Over the weekend and into Monday there will be frequent updates of the short-term forecast.

Looking out 28 days, what we see is:

  • For Temperature: Generally warm but the area that is warmer than normal declines in the second half of the 28 days.
  • For Precipitation: Starts out wet but in the second half of the 28 days it reverts to a typical La Nina pattern of wetter to the north and drier to the south.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 9, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

December 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:55 p.m. Monday December 12, 2022

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday

Over the weekend and into Monday there will be frequent updates of the short-term forecast.

Looking out 28 days, what we see is

  • For Temperature: Very cold air entering the Northwest and over the course of 28 days moving east to the Northern Great Plains while moderating to some extent.
  • For Precipitation: An unusually wet pattern that gradually becomes more spotty. We will learn more on Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. But it looks like it will evolve into a few months of Southern Tier drought for the first part of 2023.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 2, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

December 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:40 p.m. EST on December 5, 2022

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday

We see the expected movement of cold air from west to east of the pattern described in our prior Friday article and perhaps the area impacted shrinking in Weeks 3 and 4. It is quite similar to the overall Outlook predicted when the December Outlook was updated on Wednesday. Precipitation is expansive at first but the southern tier drought pattern gets started in Weeks 3 and 4. We had concerns about the 28-Day Outlook last week and did an experiment where we added the daily updates of the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts each day through Monday. We did not learn too much but I think we are seeing that the forecast last week may have been just a little bit early with its forecast as the flow seems smoother this week. But it may be that they actually nailed it last week. The maps are easy to read. But the maps reflect compromises by the forecasters. They are dealing with conflicting results from their various tools. But they can only produce one map (or that is all they issue). There is a discussion for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day maps but I do not include them to keep the size of the article reasonable. The links provided would take you to those discussions except on weekends as they are not issued on weekends. I could update those maps on Mondays (like I did last week) but it is a lot of work for me and most readers would not come back on Monday to see the comparison and I am not always available to do an update when NOAA issues their Monday version of the maps with their discussions until later in the day. But the links are there for the curious.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from November 25, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

November 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 9:30 p.m. EST November 28, 2027.  Our Monday – Tuesday 48-Hour forecast will be published soon.  And there will be an updated Outlook for the Month of December issued by NOAA CPC Wednesday and we will report on that Wednesday evening/Thursday morning.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Saturday through Monday I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts.

Because like last week there is a major change in the forecast shown mid-month (and last week the 6 to 14 Day part of the outlook was dramatically changed on the Monday following Friday), I have included excerpts from the discussions at the beginning of the article as you will see. This will allow us to track how that part of the Outlook might change over the weekend.

The comments within the article discuss what we observed.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from November 18, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

November 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:32 pm EST November 21, 2022: There has been a shocking major change in the 6 – 14 Day Outlook. I will review the NOAA discussions to better understand why. There are no discussions issued with the Saturday and Sunday 6- 10 and 8 – 14 day Outlooks but perhaps I should have looked at the maps coming off the printer/plotter. I usually pay more attention to the discussion released on Fridays with the Week 3 – 4  Outlook as I think they do a better job.

During the week, we provide 48-Hour reports which focus on the shorter-term predictions but also have links to all the partial-month outlooks.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Tomorrow and Monday I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts.

From the Week 3 -4 Discussion:

Over the equatorial Pacific, La Niña conditions persist, with below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and reduced tropical convection in all Niño regions. In contrast, convection currently exists over the Maritime Continent associated with the emergence of the MJO into RMM phase 5. Both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts depict the propagation of the MJO through phases 5, 6 and 7 (Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific) over the next two weeks. After this time, the ensemble spread indicates a great deal of uncertainty as to either the continued propagation or the decay of the MJO. Regardless, the tropical convection associated with this active MJO during the two weeks leading up to Week 3-4 will produce upper-level divergence that resides in a favorable location to interact with the subtropical jet exiting southeast Asia. This interaction will produce a source for Rossby waves capable of propagating downstream and impacting surface conditions over CONUS/AK during the Week 3-4 period. Statistically, this sort of propagation is associated with troughing over AK and ridging over CONUS at short leads. However, at Week 3-4 leads the pattern typically reverses with ridging over AK and trouging over CONUS, reminiscent of a negative PNA pattern. Further downstream, a negative NAO is typically observed. Thus, a pattern shift that projects onto the negative phases of both the PNA and NAO is favored to occur near the end of Week 2 or beginning of Week 3. Whether this shift actually occurs and its exact timing are uncertain, which leads to overall low confidence probabilities throughout this Week 3-4 forecast.

I have chosen not to try to explain all the factors that go into this forecast. If anyone is interested post a comment and I will reply to it.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from November 12, 2022

November 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 12:42 a.m. EST November 15, 2022

Taste of Early Winter but it only lasts for a couple of weeks

We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The key dynamic for CONUS is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. We end up with cool and dry over most of CONUS which first moderates and later becomes a mostly warm and dry pattern as a new atmospheric-driven storm moves into the West Coast.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include a 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast.

November 4, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

November 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Part II was updated at 6:05 p.m. EST on November 6 2022 to reflect the updated Sunday and Monday forecast. We will do another update later and then publish a new 48-hour report tonight.

Cold plus moisture means snow for the Northwest

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

The key dynamic is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. Combined with the ongoing atmospheric river we end up with a wet and snowy Northwest. The intensity and extent of this pattern vary through the month as does the level of confidence in the strength of the pattern. Drought intensifies in other parts of the U.S.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

October 28, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.