28-Day Weather Outlook Archives - Page 6 of 66

NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Forecast for October 2024 on September 30, 2024 and this article was posted on October 1, 2024

By Sig Silber October 1, 2024weatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (OND) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and the previously issued three-month outlook for OND 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on September 19, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for October. One expects some changes 11 days later. However, the changes to the updated October Outlook are fairly significant. This then gives us some reason to question the (September 19, 2024) three-month OND temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes August the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that November and December will be very different than October. You can subtract October from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined November/December Outlook.

However given the major change in the new Outlook outlook from what was issued on September 19, 2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on September 19, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change is consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article. Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2024

By Sig Silber October 1, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 01 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off the
Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and upper-level
energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Florida
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On Tuesday, the front
will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and by Tuesday
afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee Valley. Light rain moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians by Wednesday and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
evening. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida from Tuesday into Thursday.

Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated with down-sloping
air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of the North High Plains on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will produce scattered
showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest.
Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People
spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an
increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat
and check local media and government websites for cooling center
information.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 30, 2024

By Sig Silber September 30, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 30 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Monday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Monday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians will slowly
weaken and move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday, with the energy
moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday evening. A rich pool of
moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then
the Mid-Atlantic will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy
rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall ends. Rain
and showers will continue over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
night.

Meanwhile, a dry front extending from the Northern Plains to the Central
High Plains/Central Rockies will move to the Lower Upper Great Lakes
southwestward to the Southern Plains by Wednesday. On Tuesday, the front
will intersect moisture over the Upper Midwest, producing light rain over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes. By Tuesday afternoon, rain will expand
along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Light
rain will move into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by
Wednesday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of Florida from Monday into Wednesday.

Ahead of the front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to
the Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level
ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over the North/Central Plains on Monday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 29, 2024

By Sig Silber September 29, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Sunday and Monday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest…

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley will slowly weaken and move
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday. A rich pool of moisture extends
from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then the Mid-Atlantic
will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy rain over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues, however, over a
slightly smaller area. Once again, the moisture and upper-level energy
will aid in producing heavy rain over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a dry front will move from the Northern Rockies to the Upper
Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Ahead of the
front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to the
Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level
ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over the North/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday.
The front will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southeastern California and the Southwest that will
range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The
temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of
Southeastern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 28, 2024

By Sig Silber September 28, 2024UncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 28 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024

…HELENE is forecast to continue to weaken and dissipate by Monday…

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday and over the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Sunday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest…

HELENE is forecast to continue to weaken and dissipate by Monday. The
system will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain.

On Sunday, the area of moderate to heavy rain will move eastward to the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Sunday through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition,
there will be a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Florida Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday.

Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will move
northeastward into West-Central Canada by Sunday while the trailing front
moves into the Northern Plains. The system is expected to produce little
precipitation along the boundary.

Moreover, an upper-level high will remain over the Four Corners Region
through Monday. High temperatures over Southeastern California and the
Southwest will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat
overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over
parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 27, 2024

By Sig Silber September 27, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 27 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024

...HELENE is forecast to continue to move inland to the northwestward to
the Ohio Valley by Saturday while slowly weakening...

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Appalachians on Friday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley on
Saturday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest...

HELENE is forecast to move inland, heading northwestward to the Ohio
Valley, and slowly weaken by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level
4/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday
morning.  Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. In addition,
areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Lives and
property are in great danger.

Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through
Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and hail. Also, rain will develop over parts of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday.

On Saturday, the excessive rainfall threat from HELENE lessens. However,
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Saturday. Yet showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula. Additionally,
rain will continue over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland
to the Northern Plains. The system will produce rain over parts of the
Northwest ending by late Friday afternoon.

In addition, an upper-level high will remain over the Southwest through
Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will provide little relief from the
heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings
over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest.

alid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 ...HELENE is forecast to continue to move inland to the northwestward to the Ohio Valley by Saturday while slowly weakening... ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Appalachians on Friday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley on Saturday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday... �There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest� HELENE is forecast to move inland, heading northwestward to the Ohio Valley, and slowly weaken by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday morning. Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. In addition, areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Lives and property are in great danger. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts and hail. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday. On Saturday, the excessive rainfall threat from HELENE lessens. However, heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Saturday. Yet showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, rain will continue over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Plains. The system will produce rain over parts of the Northwest ending by late Friday afternoon. In addition, an upper-level high will remain over the Southwest through Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will provide little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 26, 2024

By Sig Silber September 26, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 26 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 26 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 28 2024

…Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane in the
Gulf today and bring life-threatening impacts to Florida and the Southeast
through Friday…

…Rare High Risks of excessive rainfall are in place for parts of the
Florida Panhandle where Helene will make landfall, and for the southern
Appalachians where catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
expected...

…Above average temperatures and summer-like warmth forecast to stretch
from the Southwest to northern Plains…

Hurricane Helene is moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico this
morning and is forecast to become a major hurricane before making
landfall. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big
Bend region this evening. Because Helene is becoming a large system and
will initially move inland quickly, damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland
over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and
Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts
are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the
Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians. Additionally, catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely
along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach
as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Prepare now and heed instructions
from local officials about evacuations in these areas. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on the track and timing
of Helene.

Helene will also cause significant rainfall and flooding threats. Even
ahead of Helene itself, tropical moisture continues to be pulled north
into the Southeast to southern Appalachians ahead of a slow-moving upper
trough/low and surface front, currently causing rainfall and flooding that
will last through the day. Heavy to extreme rainfall from yesterday has
also led to wet antecedent conditions in places where Helene will track. A
rare High Risk (level 4/4) remains in place in WPC’s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) across portions of Georgia into the southern Appalachians
where upslope flow should increase rain totals and varying terrain is
likely to lead to landslides. Additionally, a separate area of extreme
rainfall is also likely near the core of the storm as it passes over the
Florida Panhandle, where a separate High Risk is in effect in the Day 1
ERO. A broad Slight Risk (level 2/4) with an embedded Moderate Risk (level
3/4) over the Appalachians is in place for Friday for continued rainfall.
Overall, Helene is forecast to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12
inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches, over portions of the
Southeast into southern Appalachians. Catastrophic and life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is
expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday.
Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely
for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river flooding
are likely. Another weather hazard associated with Helene to monitor is
the tornado threat, especially on the eastern side of the track. The Storm
Prediction Center is indicating a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe
weather, primarily for tornadoes, today into tonight for parts of Florida
into Georgia and South Carolina/southeastern North Carolina.

Elsewhere, showers and storms are also possible farther north in the
eastern U.S. along the northern part of the frontal system over the next
couple of days. A couple of fronts passing through the Northwest should
lead to some precipitation there and gusty winds. Meanwhile the rest of
the western U.S. stretching into the north-central U.S. can expect dry
conditions with warmer than average temperatures. The Desert Southwest
will see highs well into the 100s and low 110s, which has prompted
Excessive Heat Warnings from south-central Arizona into the high deserts
of southern California. High into the 90s are likely in the northern High
Plains today, with 80s stretching into the Upper Midwest through the end
of the week. Record warm temperatures are possible for both morning lows
and afternoon highs.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 25, 2024

By Sig Silber September 25, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 25 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 25 2024 – 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024

…Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane in the
Gulf and bring life-threatening impacts to Florida and the Southeast late
today through Friday…

…A rare High Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the southern
Appalachians Thursday-Thursday night where considerable flash/urban/river
flooding and landslides are possible…

Current Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to quickly become a hurricane
today and become a major hurricane before making landfall on Thursday. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect over the Florida Big Bend for damaging
hurricane-force winds. Helene will grow in size as it strengthens,
spreading its impacts to much of Florida and the Southeast. There is a
danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are
expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Prepare now and heed
instructions from local officials about evacuations in these areas. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on the track
and timing of Helene.

Helene will also cause significant rainfall and flooding threats. Even
ahead of Helene itself, tropical moisture will be pulled north into the
Southeast to southern Appalachians today and tonight ahead of a
slow-moving upper trough/low. This moisture will pool along and ahead of a
stalling front at the surface and lead to excessive rainfall. A Moderate
Risk is in place in WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) across portions
of Georgia into the southern Appalachians today into tonight within a
broader Slight Risk, in addition to Slight Risks of flash flooding in
parts of the Florida Peninsula and West Coast as Helene approaches.
Today’s rainfall is forecast to create wet antecedent conditions that
should likely overlap heavy rain along Helene’s track Thursday-Friday.
Thus a High Risk of excessive rainfall is delineated across the southern
Appalachians where upslope flow should increase rain totals and varying
terrain could lead to landslides. Overall, 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated totals around 15 inches is forecast over the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the
southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. Additionally, there
is a tornado threat with Helene, especially on the eastern side of the
track. The Storm Prediction center is indicating a Slight to Enhanced Risk
of severe weather, primarily for tornadoes, on Thursday into Thursday
night for parts of Florida into Georgia and South Carolina.

Elsewhere, showers and storms are also possible farther north in the
eastern U.S. along the northern part of the frontal system over the next
couple of days. A couple of fronts passing through the Northwest should
lead to some precipitation there. Meanwhile the rest of the western U.S.
stretching into the north-central U.S. can expect dry conditions with
warmer than average temperatures. The Desert Southwest will see highs well
into the 100s, and 90s are possible in the northern High Plains. Some
record temperatures are possible for lows and highs.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 24, 2024

By Sig Silber September 24, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 24 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 24 2024 – 12Z Thu Sep 26 2024

…Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to pass not too far from
the Florida Keys Wednesday night as a hurricane before skirting up the
West Coast of Florida by Thursday morning…

…Much needed rainfall from the Ohio Valley into the central to southern
Appalachians, Upper Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic…

…Much above average temperatures continue across the West into the
Northern Plains and across the Gulf Coast into the Southeast…

A relatively benign mid- to upper-level trough that will likely bring
beneficial rainfall for the eastern U.S. is forecast to deepen when
another upper-level trough over the northern Plains drops southeast and
merges with the lead trough. The resulting trough amplification will be
instrumental in pulling the tropical moisture as well as Potential Cyclone
Nine (PTC9) northward into the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of the short-range forecast period on Thursday morning.

The initial impacts from the lead trough will be in the form of an
expanding area of moderate to heavy rainfall potential from the Midwest
into the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, upper Tennessee Valley, central
to southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic near and ahead of a low
pressure wave. Much of these areas are currently experiencing severe to
exceptional drought conditions, with the expected 1 to 1.5 inch plus
rainfall amount over the next two days bringing some relief to these
drought conditions. With the dry conditions across these areas, river
flooding will be unlikely. However, there is still at least a marginal
risk of isolated flash flooding with the expected heavy rainfall amounts,
especially if they occur over urbanized regions.

As the above-mentioned amplifying pattern develops over the northern
Plains and dips toward the Deep South, PTC9 is forecast to track more
toward the north and intensify rapidly as it moves across the Yucatan
Channel on Wednesday and then pass not too far from the Florida Keys
Wednesday night. The Florida Keys can expect strengthening winds with
more frequent passages of squally downpours Wednesday night as PTC9 is
forecast to pass to the west as a hurricane. Computer models indicate
that the circulation of PTC9 will expand as it interacts with the
deepening upper trough in the Deep South. Given a more robust convective
structure concentrated more on the east side of the storm, the West Coast
of Florida could begin to see more frequent and intense squalls with winds
further strengthening by Thursday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this system.

The amplifying upper ridge across the interior West will be supporting
widespread much above average temperatures over the next few days across
nearly all of the West and into the Northern Plains. High temperatures
across these regions are forecast to be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above
average. Above average temperatures also likely across the Gulf Coast and
into the Southeast. While temperatures are forecast to be much above
across these areas over the next few days, there are not expected to be
many record highs. However, more numerous record high morning
temperatures are possible both today and Wednesday morning along the West
coast and from portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast
and Florida. Across the Pacific Northwest, the cold front associated
with a Pacific cyclone centered over the Gulf of Alaska will only bring
some rainfall into the region by Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 23, 2024

By Sig Silber September 23, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 23 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 23 2024 – 12Z Wed Sep 25 2024

…Threat of heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms will
slowly shift from the southern Plains this morning to the Ohio Valley,
central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes on Tuesday into early
Wednesday…

…Watching the western Caribbean Sea for tropical cyclone formation that
could bring strengthening winds and passing squally downpours into the
Florida Keys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning…

A low pressure consolidating over the southern Plains along a slow-moving
front is forecast to move northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley
by tonight, then across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Heavy
showers and some severe thunderstorms this morning across the southern
Plains are expected to taper off as today progresses but the threat of
heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms will increase from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest in the mean time. By Tuesday,
the center of the low will pass through the Midwest toward the lower Great
Lakes, the threat of heavy rain and embedded strong thunderstorms will
then develop well ahead of the low across the Ohio Valley, mainly from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. By early Wednesday, many areas
across the lower Great Lakes and the interior East Coast will be
enshrouded by showers and embedded thunderstorms. These showers and
storms will extend farther southwest near/along the trailing front across
the interior Gulf Coast states. Showers and periods of rain will also
move across the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians and
upstate New York in association with another wave of low pressure near the
front.

The upper-level low behind the slow-moving front will slide across the
central Plains, allowing much of the western U.S. to remain dry along with
a warming trend for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, colder air will
remain entrenched across the Plains behind the front but 90s will be
common in the afternoon across the South and into the interior Southeast
today and Tuesday ahead of the front. The outer edge of a Pacific cyclone
centered over the Gulf of Alaska will only bring some light rain into
northwestern Washington State this morning.

Farther south into the tropics, the National Hurricane Center continues to
watch the western Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone formation.
Computer models now appear to be in good agreement for the system to move
northwestward and reach the Yucatan Channel by the time the short-range
forecast period ends Wednesday morning. This means that the Florida Keys
could experience strengthening winds along with passing squally downpours
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this system.