28-Day Weather Outlook

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024

….There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday and the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday…

…Dangerous and record-breaking heat begins to build across the Central
Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast…

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes to
the Northern Plains will move to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley
and trail off into the Northern High Plains by Monday. A wave of low
pressure over the Northern Plains will move northeastward into Ontario,
Canada, by Tuesday, bringing the cold front into the Great Lakes to the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. The boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail
two inches or greater, mainly over parts of the Northern Plains.

Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and
tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the
Western Gulf Coast eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over
the Southwest and diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late
evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.

On Monday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper Midwest
will pull the front back over parts of the Great Lakes, creating showers
and severe thunderstorms in some parts of the area. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday through
Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, upper-level impulses will create showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers
and thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast.

Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great Basin/Southwest
into the Central/Southern Rockies will weaken, allowing heat to expand
over portions of the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday into Tuesday.
Confidence is increasing in extremely dangerous, potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast beginning
Monday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East Coast, and
numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate
cooling or hydration.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northern
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday…

…Dangerous and record-breaking heat will continue for much of the West
through Saturday, while sizzling temperatures will also begin to build
across the Central Plains and Southeast...

A weak front with tropical moisture will be quasi-stationary over parts of
the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary as the tropical
moisture produces heavy rain over parts of the Easter Seaboard. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, on Saturday, a front over the Northern Plains will move
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and extending
into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday. The boundary will produce showers
and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail
two inches or greater over parts of the Northern High Plains.

Moreover, upper-level energy and tropical moisture over the Western and
Central Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore,
moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of California and weak
upper-level energy will aid in producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and Southwest.

On Sunday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper Midwest
will move from Montana to North Dakota, creating showers and severe
thunderstorms in parts of the area. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains
into Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Western Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Moisture over the Southwest and diurnal heating
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.

Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great Basin/Southwest
into the Central/Southern Rockies will allow an extremely dangerous heat
wave to persist over the area. The upper-level ridging will produce a near
all-time high temperature record, and heat will continue over portions of
the Southwest through Sunday. This long-duration heat wave remains
extremely dangerous and deadly if not taken seriously. Dozens of daily
record high temperatures are forecast over much of the West through
Sunday. Hazardous heat will expand in coverage over portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Sunday and Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 12 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 12 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Friday and a Slight Risk over Southern
New England on Saturday…

…Dangerous and record-breaking heat will continue for much of the West
through Saturday, while sizzling temperatures will also begin to build
across the Central Plains and Southeast…

A weak front with tropical moisture will be quasi-stationary over parts of
the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary as the tropical
moisture produces heavy rain over parts of the Easter Seaboard. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast
through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, on Friday, weak upper-level energy and a nearby front will
help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Likewise, upper-level energy over the Western and Central
Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms.

On Saturday, the weak front will dissipate over the Southeast while
tropical moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of Southern New England. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of Southern New England from Saturday through
Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, on Saturday, a front over the Northern High Plains will move across
the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The boundary will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley from Saturday
through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of Texas on Saturday.

Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over Central/Southern
California into the Southwest and parts of the Great Basin will allow an
extremely dangerous heat wave to persist over the area. The upper-level
ridging will produce a near all-time high temperature record, and heat
will continue over portions of the Southwest through Saturday. This
long-duration heat wave remains extremely dangerous and deadly if not
taken seriously. Dozens of daily record high temperatures are forecast
over much of the West through Saturday. Hazardous heat will expand in
coverage over portions of the central and eastern U.S. late this weekend.
Moreover, moisture over the Southwest will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jul 11 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 11 2024 – 12Z Sat Jul 13 2024

…Stalled surface front to cause scattered Flash Flooding across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic through Friday…

…Dangerous heat and record high temperatures to continue for much of the
West through the end of the work week…

A cold front associated with once Beryl will stall out along the East
Coast today and be a focus for thunderstorm activity across the
Mid-Atlantic through the end of the work week. At least a few inches of
rainfall are forecast to impact areas from coastal South Carolina to
southern New Jersey, including much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic. A Slight
Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the Virginia
Tidewater down across the North Carolina coast today and then the broader
Mid-Atlantic coastal region on Friday. Not only will this frontal boundary
increase rainfall chances, but dangerous heat experienced across the East
will greatly abate for the end of the week.

Extreme and record-breaking heat will continue throughout much of the
West, with the focus beginning to shift out of the Pacific Northwest and
towards the High Plains, while remaining in the Southwest. Highs are
forecast to soar into the upper 90s and triple digits for these locations,
with 110s and 120s possible in the typically hot desert/interior valley
locations of California, Arizona, and Nevada. Dozens of daily high
temperature records are forecast today and Friday from the West Coast to
the High Plains. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in
effect for much of the western United States in order to further highlight
the dangerously hot temperatures. This level of heat for many people will
create an extreme risk of heat-related illnesses when access to adequate
cooling or hydration is not available. Be sure to follow proper heat
safety, which includes staying hydrated, wear light clothing, avoid
outdoor activity, and using air conditioning.

Elsewhere, the combination of power outages from Hurricane Beryl and heat
indices up to 106 degrees prompted Heat Advisories to be issued across
parts of southeast Texas. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) for Severe Thunderstorms over portions of southeast
Arizona/the greater Tucson area today between 3-8pm MST. The main concern
will be severe wind gusts from thunderstorms that form in the north near
the Mogollon Rim and work their way south throughout the afternoon. A
series of dry microbursts and MCSs are possible. For the southern Rockies,
locally heavy rain overlapping with sensitive burn scars could create
chances for additional rounds of flash flooding today. Flood Watches are
in effect.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 10 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 12 2024

…Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl to bring Severe Thunderstorms, heavy rain
and flooding to parts of the Midwest, eastern Great Lakes, and Northeast
today…

…Dangerous heat and record high temperatures to continue for much of the
West through the end of the work week…

…Major to Extreme HeatRisk over portions of the East Coast today…

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue northeastward through Ohio and
into Ontario and rainfall will increase over northern areas of New York
into New England. Thunderstorms could be severe in some parts of the Lower
Great Lakes/interior Northeast, with some tornado potential. The Storm
Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for these areas as a
result. The flash flooding threat will be greater over parts of
northeastern New York into northern Vermont/New Hampshire, where a
Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect.
Elsewhere, showers and some thunderstorms are possible over parts of New
Mexico, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. A
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect over
portions of south-central New Mexico where heavy rainfall over the
Sacramento Mountains and adjacent burn scars could trigger Flash Flooding.
Things settle down considerably over the Northeast by Thursday.

In the West, the intense heat will continue for at least a few more days,
with temperatures well above normal and reaching or exceeding daily record
highs over many locations from Mexico to Canada west of the Rockies.
Excessive heat warnings or heat advisories are in effect for much of the
area outside the high mountains, even including the foothills.
Temperatures well into the 100s/110s will be commonplace, resulting in a
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. In addition to the record high daily
temperatures, the early morning lows are also expected to set records
across large portions of the West over the coming few mornings. The
multi-day length and record warm overnight temperatures will continue to
cause heat stress to anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

Temperatures will be cooler than average along the path of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl thanks to overcast skies and rain. Ahead of its path, the
East Coast will see another day of warm/hot temperatures well into the 90s
from the Mid-Atlantic southward through the Carolinas. The high humidity
values will result in heat index values over 100F for many of these areas.
This will also promote many record high minimum temperatures that only dip
into the mid/upper 70s at night (and near 80 in some urban centers such as
Baltimore and Washington, D.C.). Heat advisories are in effect for much of
the I-95 corridor between the Appalachians and the coast, while Excessive
Heat Warnings are in effect for Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.
By Thursday, temperatures may cool by a couple degrees as the cold front
associated with Beryl reaches the East Coast but may stall across the
region. This could finally bring some much needed rain to the
Mid-Atlantic, with isolated flash flooding possible over parts of the
Virginia/Carolina Tidewater.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jul 09 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 – 12Z Thu Jul 11 2024

…Beryl to bring heavy rain and flooding from the Lower Arkansas River
Valley, northeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes…

…Record high temperatures to continue into mid week across large
portions of the west coast, while record high minimum temperatures stretch
from the Gulf coast, northeast along the East coast…

Beryl is expected to move steadily northeastward from central Arkansas
today into the Lower Ohio Valley tonight and into the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday. While the wind speeds associated with Beryl will continue to
weaken as it moves farther from the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will
continue to be a prolific heavy rain producer as it pushes northeastward.
Widespread heavy rains and thunderstorms are likely along and to the
northeast of the path of Beryl over the next two days with rainfall totals
of 2-5″ from central Arkansas, across southeast Missouri, central to
southern Illinois, Indiana into the southern portions of the L.P. of
Michigan and then over portions of upstate New York and Vermont/New
Hampshire. These amounts are following the 5 to 10+ inches of rain that
fell along the path of Beryl as it pushed inland earlier Monday along the
central Texas Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes will be possible over portions of the lower Ohio Valley today
followed by the interior Northeast on Wednesday. A higher end Slight Risk
(at least 25%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in
effect for portions of upstate New York into Vermont on Wednesday. Flood
watches are currently in effect along the path of Beryl from northern
Arkansas, northeastward into the southeastern L.P. Michigan, affecting
over 21 million people.

No let up expected to the string of record high temperatures being set
across large portions of the West. The mid to upper-level high that has
been anchoring the record record heat in the West is not expected to
change much over the next several days, as it remains locked in place,
stretching from Southern California/Desert Southwest, northward through
the Great Basin and across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Heat Advisories are currently in
effect for nearly all of Washington State, Oregon, California, Idaho,
Nevada and western Arizona. Numerous record high temperatures are
expected across these areas over the next few days where high temperatures
will be anywhere from 10 to as high as 30 degrees above average. In
addition to the record high daily temperatures, the early morning lows are
also expected to set records across large portions of the West over the
coming two mornings. The multi-day length and record warm overnight
temperatures will continue to cause heat stress to anyone without adequate
cooling and hydration.

Elsewhere, much above average temperatures also likely to remain in place
along much of the east over the next few days. While there is not
forecast to be many record high temperatures across the East over the next
few days, numerous record high minimum temperatures are likely from the
eastern Gulf coast, through the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and into southern
New England. Heat advisories are currently in effect across large portions
of the South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England with this
likely to continue over the next few days. An Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect across portions of southwestern West Virginia for this afternoon
due to the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity create a
dangerous situation in which heat related illnesses are likely.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 08 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024

…Hurricane Beryl to bring very heavy rain, damaging hurricane-force
winds and life-threatening storm surge to the Texas coast today…

…Extreme heat re-focuses over the Desert Southwest and interior Pacific
Northwest; more heat and humidity for the Mid-Atlantic as well…

Hurricane Beryl is expected to track up into the ArkLaTex today.
Life-threatening storm surge and rip currents are likely along much of the
Texas Coast, but especially from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass. Residents in
those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow
evacuation orders. Damaging hurricane-force winds are also expected for
portions of the Texas Coast around the time of Beryl’s landfall this
morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis
Pass. Severe thunderstorms are likely to occur from the eastern
Texas/western Louisiana coast up through the ArkLaTex today, where a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) and embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) are in
effect. Considerable flash and urban flooding are expected through tonight
across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern
Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. A Moderate
Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in
effect for eastern Texas up into the ArkLaTex for today. Please refer to
the National Hurricane Center for more information on Beryl.

A deep and well entrenched upper-level ridge stationed over the West will
support the continuation of an extreme heat wave across the region early
this week. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 110s will represent
15-30 degree anomalies. Widespread high and low temperature records will
likely be tied or broken over the next couple of days as a result of this
unusual heat. The multi-day length and record warm overnight temperatures
will continue to cause heat stress in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. The heat wave is forecast to shift from California and Oregon
north to Washington and east over the Great Basin and Arizona through
mid-week.

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms spread into the Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday as Beryl transitions into a Post-Tropical Cyclone. There’s a
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern
Arkansas through southeastern Missouri, far western Kentucky,
southern/central Illinois and far western Indiana. The cold front attached
to Beryl will become quasi-stationary over portions of the central Gulf
Coast and support training rainfall on Tuesday. Thus, a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of Louisiana’s central
coastline. Heat and humidity begin to build over the Mid-Atlantic today as
the upper trough that will eventually pick up Beryl directs moisture and
warm air northward across the East Coast. Strong southerly flow and clouds
will contribute to warm overnight temperatures in the 70s. These
temperatures will likely tie or break existing records across much of the
Appalachians and East Coast through midweek.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024 – 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024

…Beryl to bring significant impacts to the Texas coast beginning today
before making landfall as a Hurricane tonight…

…Extremely dangerous heat wave continues in the West….

…Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected to shift
south into Oklahoma today…

…Critical Fire Weather over portions of southern Utah…

The upper pattern across the CONUS will consist of a dome of high pressure
in the West, a digging trough in the Central U.S. and more ridging in the
Southeast heading into the beginning of the work week.

Beryl, which is currently a Tropical Storm, is forecast to strengthen to a
Hurricane before making landfall early Monday morning. Tropical Storm
force winds could develop as early as this evening for the upper Texas
coast. Heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, as well as strong rip
currents and coastal inundation from storm surge are the most likely
impacts from Beryl. There’s a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for portions of the central Texas Coast
from Aransas up to Galveston County today. There’s a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms along the middle to upper Texas coast with severe wind
gusts, isolated to large hail and a few tornadoes possible. Excessive
Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm threats spread farther inland through the
ArkLaTex on Monday. Another Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect from the central/northern Texas coast up into northeast Texas near
the ArkLaTex. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in
effect for portions of the Texas Coast from South Padre Island up through
the Houston metro area. For more information please refer to the National
Hurricane Center.

The extremely dangerous heat wave in the West is forecast to continue and
expand across the Northwest and into the Northern High Plains over the
next few days. Dozens of daily record temperatures are forecast to be tied
or broken into the work week. Highs in the 100s to 110s and lows in the
70s will represent 15-30 degree positive temperature anomalies. The
multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will
cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. In addition to the heat, dry and windy conditions over parts of
southern Utah will contribute to a Critical Fire Weather Risk today.

The digging upper trough over the Central U.S. will push a surface cold
front south through the Central Plains today. An MCS is expected to
develop between the cold front and a warm front lifting up from the
Southern High Plains. This area of convergence will be ripe for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall this afternoon. There are Slight Risks of
Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern
Texas, central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where the MCS is forecast to
produce severe wind gusts and isolated flash flooding. A quasi-stationary
surface front draped across the Southeast will focus scattered to isolated
thunderstorm activity across the region over the next couple days. An
isolated instance of flash flooding cannot be ruled out as a result.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024

…Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West, with heat persisting in
the Eastern U.S….

…Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall possible for portions of
the Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today, then the
Central/Southern Plains on Sunday…

…Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
today and threaten the western Gulf Coast of the U.S. beginning on
Sunday…

…Critical Fire Weather possible over portions of the Upper Great Basin
and Four Corners Regions this weekend…

An amplified upper-level pattern over the CONUS will support record
breaking heat in the West, severe weather and heavy to excessive rainfall
over the Central U.S., and some more heat risk in the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast this weekend. A staunch upper ridge continues to
promote an intense, widespread and long duration heat wave across the
West. Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or broken
this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to 110s likely up and down the
West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. These conditions will be
extremely dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. The
multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will
cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Heat Advisories are in
effect for much of the West. Hazardous heat will continue in the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat index values will approach or
exceed 110 degrees at times. Heat Advisories stretch from upstate New York
down the East Coast to the Alabama coast. The intense heat paired with dry
windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over portions of
southern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday.

Elsewhere, an upper-level trough stationed over the Central U.S. will
amplify and dig into the Southern Plains this weekend. At the surface, a
pair of slow moving low pressure systems will focus areas of showers and
thunderstorms across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms
across parts of the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected from the Southern High Plains into
the Upper Midwest. Mid-level energy propagating atop a moist, unstable
environment and quasi-stationary front at the surface will support
convection and locally heavy rainfall from central Texas through the
Central Gulf Coast today. There’s a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (at
least 15%) over much of Louisiana. Another round of heavy rainfall could
produce heavy to excessive rainfall for parts of central Oklahoma northern
Texas and southern Kansas on Sunday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for the aforementioned areas. Some more scattered to isolated
storms will occur over portions of the Northeast today with potential for
isolated Flash Flooding.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify as it moves through the
western Gulf of Mexico today. Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a
Hurricane on Sunday night before making landfall somewhere along the Texas
Coast. The exact location of Beryl’s landfall is uncertain at this point
but what’s most important is that heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm
surge are expected for much of the state’s coastline and portions of the
central Gulf Coast beginning tonight into Sunday. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for the latest Beryl forecast track and
intensity.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024

…Heat is expected to intensify and spread farther up the West Coast this
weekend…

…Oppressive heat and humidity will shift east into the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast today and Saturday…

…Excessive Rainfall possible over portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic
down through the Carolinas on Saturday…

…Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Saturday and threaten southern Texas…

Dangerous heat is likely to become more widespread in the West today and
Saturday. Today, temperatures will soar into the 100s and 110s over much
of California and southern Oregon. Temperatures will be 15-30 degrees
above average for much of the West Coast today. Widespread temperature
records are expected to be tied or broken. Saturday will likely shape up
to be the hottest day in this heatwave when high temperatures into the
110s will be common across California outside of the cooling effects of
the Pacific Ocean near the coast and the naturally cooler higher
elevations. Numerous record-breaking temperatures can be expected through
the next few days. Locally higher temperatures into the 120s are possible
in the typical hot spots of the Desert Southwest. The triple-digit heat
will expand northward into the Pacific Northwest and parts of the central
Great Basin, with widespread highs rising into the 90s and low 100s. The
duration of this heat is also concerning as scorching above average
temperatures are forecast to linger into next week. Heat impacts can
compound over time, therefore it is important to remain weather aware and
follow the advice of local officials. Heat Watches and Warnings are in
effect for much of the West. This level of heat throughout parts of the
Mojave Desert and Sacramento/San Joaquin valleys of California could pose
a risk to anyone if proper heat safety is not followed. It is imperative
to stay hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in buildings with sufficient
air-conditioning when possible. It is also equally as important to check
on the safety of vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.

Meanwhile, oppressive heat and humidity will begin to shift eastward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast for the end of the week. High temperatures
rising into the upper 90s and low 100s are expected, with heat indices
soaring into the 110s across the lower Mississippi Valley. Warm overnight
conditions in the upper 70s and low 80s will offer little relief, leading
to a dangerous situation for those without access to adequate cooling. A
cold front entering the southern Plains is anticipated to offer cooler and
below average temperatures to Oklahoma, much of northern/western Texas,
and the Mid-South today. Above average temperatures are then anticipated
to remain confined to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the start of the
weekend, with afternoon highs into the mid-to-upper 90s.

An active and stormy weather pattern over the central U.S. is expected to
bring heightened chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall,
which could impact holiday gatherings through early this weekend. A
developing area of low pressure over the Northern Plains is forecast to
team up with a lingering frontal boundary stretching from the lower Great
Lakes to the southern Plains to trigger some meteorological fireworks.
Thunderstorm chances span from the Southern Plains/Rockies to the
Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley and also eastward to the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding will remain a concern throughout the upper
Midwest as well due to yet another round of thunderstorms overlapping
areas dealing with ongoing river flooding and saturated soils, with
scattered flash flooding also possible between the Ohio Valley and
southern Plains. Today, thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward
with the frontal boundary into much of the eastern third of the country.
Isolated strong to severe storms and flash flooding are possible. The
greatest threat for damaging wind gusts associated with these storms will
be across the upper Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorm chances
associated with daytime heating are possible along the Gulf Coast and
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible throughout
the north-central U.S. this weekend as upper troughing remains over the
region. There’s a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding along a stalled out frontal boundary over portions of
southeastern Virginia down through coastal Carolina on Saturday. Residents
and visitors located within areas expecting severe weather and/or heavy
rainfall are advised to remain weather aware, have multiple ways to
receive warnings, and never drive across flooded roadways.

As we head into the weekend, interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
should pay attention to the future progress of Hurricane Beryl, currently
located in the western Caribbean Sea. Beryl is forecast to weaken into a
tropical storm as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday before
emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Beryl has an
opportunity to re-intensify over the Gulf and turn more northwest toward
the southern tip of Texas by the end of this forecast period Saturday
evening.