November 4, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.
Part II was updated at 6:05 p.m. EST on November 6 2022 to reflect the updated Sunday and Monday forecast. We will do another update later and then publish a new 48-hour report tonight.
Cold plus moisture means snow for the Northwest
NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast maps.
Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.
The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.
The key dynamic is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. Combined with the ongoing atmospheric river we end up with a wet and snowy Northwest. The intensity and extent of this pattern vary through the month as does the level of confidence in the strength of the pattern. Drought intensifies in other parts of the U.S.
We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.
It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.
