2023 Hurricane Outlook

Updated at 3:26 a.m. EDT Tuesday, May 30, 2023

We are entering Hurricane Season. So it is appropriate to discuss the recent projections issued by NOAA. NOAA has provided projections for the Atlantic, Central Pacific, and Eastern Pacific.

I also discuss the apparent correlation between hurricane frequency and intensity with the phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is particularly important this year due to the combination of a warm Atlantic and a forecast of an El Nino. These two factors tend to cancel each other out and this combination occurs rarely.  This makes the forecast this year interesting and based on a small number of occurrences of this combination. Thus the level of confidence in the Outlook for the Atlantic may be lower than usual.

The analysis of the impact of the AMO on the forecast is in Part II of the article so those who are only interested in the forecast will find that early in the article. Ocean cycles are very important when trying to understand the climate of the U.S. and other parts of the World.

It is also appropriate to remind those who are at risk from tropical cyclones to be as prepared as possible.