Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 10, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 10 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 10 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 12 2024

…Strong storm affects New England on Wednesday, followed by improving
conditions…

…Unsettled weather conditions continue for the Western U.S. with much
colder temperatures arriving for the Northern Plains…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

09 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Sharply Down In The Red, Continued To Trend Upwards, But Closed Mixed With The Nasdaq Closed Fractionally In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 158 points or 0.42%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.15%,
  • Gold $2,036 up $2.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.39,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4,015% up 0.013 points,
  • USD index $102.54 up $0.33,
  • Bitcoin $46,716 down $50 (0.03%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.3 points in December to 91.9, marking the 24th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up one point from last month, and replacing labor quality as the top concern. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Small business owners remain very pessimistic about economic prospects this year. Inflation and labor quality have consistently been a tough complication for small business owners, and they are not convinced that it will get better in 2024.

U.S. Retailers added 119,700 jobs in December, marking a slight increase from the 102,400 jobs added in the same month of the previous year. This brings the total for the season to 564,200, an 11% rise from the 509,300 jobs announced in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to an analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Despite this growth, the figures are among the lowest since the 495,800 jobs were added in Q4 2009. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:
This conservative hiring pattern could be attributed to the cost of labor and an anticipation of slower economic growth as we head into 2024. However, the holiday shopping season ended strong, and Retailers expanded their ranks to meet demand.

November exports were up 5.6% year-over-year. November imports were up 1.5% year-over-year. November therefore saw a decrease in the goods and services deficit.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Scientists Present New Solid-State Lithium Battery That Lasts 6000 Cycles
  • Big Three Automakers Rebound After Turbulent 2023
  • China Sanctions 5 U.S. Defense Firms Ahead of Taiwan Election
  • Azerbaijan Doubles Down on Its Domestic Oil Potential
  • France Moves Away from Renewable Targets in Favor of Nuclear Power
  • S&P 500 closes slightly lower as stocks’ early 2024 struggles linger: Live updates
  • Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin treated for prostate cancer, severe infection: Pentagon
  • Global economy set for its worst half-decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says
  • Bitcoin hovers at 21-month high ahead of imminent spot ETF decision by SEC: CNBC Crypto World
  • tocks making the biggest moves midday: Unity Software, JetBlue, Juniper Networks and more
  • Mortgages: Barclays and Santander cut rates as competition intensifies
  • Dow snaps three-day winning streak as market awaits inflation data, earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 9, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 9 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 9 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 11 2024

…Major storm system will hammer the Eastern U.S. with widespread heavy
rain, strong winds, and severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into early
Wednesday…

…Unsettled weather conditions continue for the Western U.S. with much
colder temperatures arriving for the Northern Plains…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

08 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Mixed, But Trended Higher During Today’s Session, Nasdaq And The S&P 500 Closed Above 2% And 1% Respectively

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 217 points or 0.58%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.20%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.41%,
  • Gold $2,033 down $16.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $2.75,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4,006% down 0.036 points,
  • USD index $102.25 down $0.16,
  • Bitcoin $46,813 up $2,655 (6.01%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to the Federal Reserve, in November 2023 total consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7% with revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 17.7% and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.5%. Using my preferred year-over-year analysis – total consumer credit increased by 2.8% (blue line on the graph below and 1.4% inflation-adjusted red line on the graph below). This credit expansion is low for times of economic growth. Non-revolving credit is mostly student and personal loans – and is barely growing year-over-year whilst revolving credit (say credit cards) is growing 9.6% year-over-year (but slowly moderating).

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • 3 Catalysts That Could Push Gold Prices Even Higher
  • Equinor Sells Off Azerbaijan Oil Assets
  • Iran’s Dark Fleet: The High Cost of Clandestine Oil Exports
  • Affordability Crisis Weigh on Automobile Sector
  • Traders Most Bearish on Oil Since March 2023
  • Oil Prices Slump by 4% As Demand Concerns Trump Supply Risks
  • United Airlines inspections find loose bolts on several Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft after grounding
  • Nasdaq Composite closes 2% higher Monday as tech stocks’ revival lifts major averages: Live updates
  • Mortgage rate decline pulls buyers back into the housing market
  • Bitcoin touches highest level in nearly two years as deadline for spot ETFs looms: CNBC Crypto World
  • Consumer Credit Shocker: November Debt Soars After Second Biggest Surge In Credit Card Debt On Record
  • Dow ends higher with third day of gains, as bond yields pull back

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 8, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 08 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 08 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 10 2024

…A Major Storm will produce widespread, significant impacts over much of
the U.S. this week…

…A Major Winter Storm will bring several feet of snow to the Washington
and Oregon Cascades through Tuesday…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 7, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 07 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 09 2024

…Major winter storm will produce additional heavy snow for Northeast and
Central Appalachians today…

…Rapidly strengthening storm will lead to widespread, significant
impacts over much of the central U.S. beginning Monday…

…Major winter storm will dump several feet of snow over the Washington
and Oregon Cascades

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 8: Complex Systems (First Pass)

NOTE:  This preliminary draft has been revised and expanded.  The finished article can be seen here.

The preceding post, Part 7, introduced some concepts applicable to complex system analysis. These included representations of reality and a property called ergodicity.  This article delves more deeply into the challenges that arise from these sources in modeling complex systems.

Agriculture Prices January 6, 2024: 2003 Has Not Been a Good Year in Most Cases

Updated at 1:20 a.m. January 7, 2024 to do some light editing and add the discussion of price parity.

In theory, if the prices received decline by 15% and your prices paid decline by 0.3% you should be in trouble.   Let’s take a closer look. Some readers will have to click on “Read More to access the full article.  I have included most of the report but the full report can be accessed HERE. In most cases, we are looking at Nov 2023 as compared to either the prior month i.e. October 2023 or the same month last year which would be November 2022. So in many cases, it is a November to November comparison but if you look closely it is pretty much a comparison of 2023 to 2022. The section I left out is called Price Parity. I left it out mostly because I do not understand it.  I think it is less important now than in the past but you be the judge by reading HERE.

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 6, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 06 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 08 2024

…East Coast winter storm to bring freezing rain to the southern and
central Appalachians and heavy snow to the Northeast today…

…Areas of heavy rain with possible flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms for the Gulf Coast and Florida today…

…Pacific storm system to bring heavy mountain snow, strong winds and
coastal rain to the West this weekend…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

05 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Traded higher After The Opening Bell, Then Trended Downward To Finally Closing Fractionally up In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.18%,
  • Gold $2052 up $1.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $1.68,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.044% up 0.053 points,
  • USD index $102.47 up $0.05,
  • Bitcoin $43,747 down $707 (1.50%),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 621 Canada +39 to 125

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December 2023, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. The headline numbers are stronger than expected and show decent growth. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. Interestingly, the household survey showed a decline in the employed of 683,000 whilst the headline establishment survey increased 216,000 – this is a huge difference casting doubt on the validity of the headline numbers. In all events, the rate of growth year-over-year of employment continues to decline.

In December 2023, the ISM Services PMI registered 50.6 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than November’s reading of 52.7 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting – the bottom line is that this index is saying the economy is barely growing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Europe’s Natural Gas and Power Prices Jump as Cold Snap Begins
  • U.S. Drilling Continues to Slow
  • India Slashes Financial Support for State Oil Refiners’ Green Goals
  • Retaliation Looms After Iran Bombings
  • Eli Lilly’s direct drug sales alone may not upend the industry, but others could follow suit
  • Apple shares slip on report U.S. government preparing antitrust lawsuit
  • S&P 500 closes slightly higher Friday, but major averages end 9-week win streak: Live updates
  • Wall Street heads into the week ahead on edge as inflation and earnings data loom
  • Bitcoin dips 1.5% ahead of next week’s expected decision on spot ETF: CNBC Crypto World
  • U.S. payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, much better than expected
  • US Bankruptcies Jump 18% In 2023 Amid High Interest Rates
  • The S&P 500’s first five trading days may indicate full-year performance. That doesn’t bode well for stocks in 2024.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.