10May2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Posts Its 8th Winning Day In A Row

May 10, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 125 points or 0.32%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.03%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.16%,
  • Gold $2,369 up $29.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.91,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.500% up 0.051 points,
  • USD index $105.30 up $0.07,
  • Bitcoin $60,663 down $2400,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 603

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters responding to the Second Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in 2024 and 1.9 percent in 2025. These annual projections are 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous estimates of three months ago. The projections for the unemployment rate are nearly unchanged from those of the previous survey. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 3.9 percent in 2024 to 4.1 percent in 2027. On the employment front, the forecasters see job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 200,000 per month. The employment projections for the current quarter and the following three quarters show upward revisions from those of the previous survey.

University of Michigan Consumer sentiment retreated about 13% this May following three consecutive months of very little change. This 10 index-point decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months. This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, income, and education groups. Consumers in western states exhibited a particularly steep drop. While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions. They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Unveils Ambitious Plans to Boost Domestic Lithium Production
  • Biden Admin Set to Announce Tariffs on Chinese EVs and Solar Panels
  • Biggest Solar Storm in 19 Years Could Disrupt Electric Grids
  • Europe Is Once Again Worried About Russian Spies
  • Stronger Chinese Oil Imports May Send WTI Above $80
  • McDonald’s is working to introduce a $5 value meal
  • Russia Launches Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv, Aims To Extend Border 10km Deep Into Ukraine
  • FBI Officials Told To ‘Stand Down’ The Day Before Jan. 6: Report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on May 9, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory/La Nina Watch Continues. – La Nina Onset a Bit Slower than Prior Estimate – Published May 10, 2024

May 10, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory La Nino Watch”

The exact timing of the transition is not very clear which will impact the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday. It does look like the onset may be slightly slower than thought last month. This may turn out to be a trend i.e. recognizing that the onset will be less rapid than previously thought. I am just guessing. It is difficult to predict how the phases of ENSO will unfold.

We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.

>

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

 

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume favors an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral, with La Niña developing during July-September 2024 and then persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which suggests La Niña could form as early as June-August 2024, with higher confidence of La Niña during the following seasons. La Niña generally tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024.  The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year.  La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña.  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).”

We now provide additional details.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. MAM stands for March/April/May.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.  This kind of bar chart is not very good at showing uncertainty.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are not very different.
Click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 10, 2024

May 10, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 10 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 10 2024 – 12Z Sun May 12 2024

…Severe thunderstorms possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today…

…Above average temperatures will spread across the West and
north-central U.S. this weekend…

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue today across the
Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast as a slow-moving cold front gradually
pushes towards the East Coast. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from
the eastern Carolinas where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an
area with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) and in
southern Georgia and north Florida where there is another Slight Risk
(level 2/5) area with an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. The main
thunderstorm threat will be damaging winds, but hail and locally heavy
rainfall/isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible.
Precipitation will come to an end for most areas in these regions tonight
as the front moves into the Atlantic, but isolated showers and storms will
remain possible in south Florida through the weekend as the frontal
boundary slows/stalls.

By this afternoon, a frontal system will develop over the Upper Midwest
then push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. This system will
cause precipitation chances to return to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England on Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms
expected. This system is forecast to be weaker than the system that
impacted the region on Thursday and Friday, and severe thunderstorms are
not expected. Another front will drop south into the northern Plains and
upper Midwest on Sunday, but the frontal passage is expected to be mostly
dry with only some scattered showers and storms.

Meanwhile, an upper level low and a stationary surface front will be
positioned over the southwestern U.S., which will support low elevation
showers and thunderstorms over the central and southern High Plains and
the Four Corners region and high elevation wintry precipitation through
Saturday. Most lower elevation areas will see light to moderate rainfall,
though some heavier showers/storms will be possible heading into Saturday
evening for portions of west Texas, with some isolated flash flooding
possible. The upper low will gradually push east Saturday night into
Sunday, and precipitation chances will expand into the central and
southern Plains as a low pressure system develops. This system will push
east early next week, and warm, moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico will
likely support heavy rainfall in the warm sector that could potentially
lead to flash flooding in parts of the South.

The Pacific Northwest and much of California will remain dry through this
weekend as surface high pressure and upper level ridging remain anchored
over the region. This will result in above average temperatures with highs
in the 80s and even lower 90s (15-25 degrees above average) in some areas.
The upper level ridge and above average temperatures will expand east
across the north-central U.S. over the weekend where highs will range from
the mid-70s to the lower 80s. Elsewhere, forecast precipitation and cloud
cover will result in temperatures below or near average.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

09 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Records The Seventh Straight Session Of Gains As Weekly Jobs Report Jumps

May 9, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 331 points or 0.85%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.27%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.51%,
  • Gold $2,348 up $25.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.57,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.457% down 0.026 points,
  • USD index $105.22 down $0.330,
  • Bitcoin $62,401 up $177 (0.28%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 215,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 210,000 to 210,250.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 9, 2024

May 9, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 09 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 09 2024 – 12Z Sat May 11 2024

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians,
and Southeast on Thursday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Central Rockies on
Thursday…

On Thursday, a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Ohio
Valley and then southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move
eastward off most of the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday evening, lingering
over Florida on Saturday.

As the southern half of the boundary moves across the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast on Friday, it will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana, central Mississippi,
Southern Alabama, and southern Georgia. The SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley/Southeast through
Friday morning. The potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There will be the added threat of severe thunderstorm wind
gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Southern Plains to the
Southeast. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of hail two inches
or greater over parts of the Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, central
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, far eastern Tennessee, western North
Carolina, and western South Carolina. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians,
and Southeast through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally,
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. In
addition, moderate to heavy rain will also develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Middle Mississippi Valley.

On Friday, the remainder of the front will move off most of the Atlantic
Coast, while parts of the boundary will linger over Florida on Saturday.
The system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
southern Georgia, extreme southeastern South Carolina, and northeastern
Florida. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast from Friday into Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to
heavy rain over parts of southern Georgia, extreme southeastern South
Carolina, and northern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf
Coast/Southeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Southwest to the Middle Mississippi
Valley will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies from Thursday to Saturday morning. On Thursday,
the system will produce heavy snow over parts of the Central Rockies.

Moreover, overnight Thursday, a weak front moving out of Central Canada
will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday morning and then
advance eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Saturday. The system
will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley Friday afternoon into evening. Overnight Friday, the showers and
thunderstorms move into parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on overnight
Friday. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

08 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Sixth Up Session For The Dow, Tech Stocks Stumble On Poor Earnings, Markets Close Mixed

May 8, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 172 points or 0.44%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
  • S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
  • Gold $2,317 down $7.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.80,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.494% up 0.033 points,
  • USD index $105.55 up $0.130,
  • Bitcoin $62,171 down $914 (1.45%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

March 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 1.4 percent year-over-year from the revised March 2023 level – down 3.6% year-over-year inflation adjusted. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 2.3% from the revised March 2023 level. The March inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.35. The March 2023 ratio was 1.40. The inventory to sales ratio is healthy – and this sector has employment growth of 1.0% which suggests wholesale trade is healthier than the monetary sales figures suggest.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

 

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 8, 2024

May 8, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 08 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 08 2024 – 12Z Fri May 10 2024

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday…

…Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on
Wednesday…

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast overnight Wednesday. In addition, a wave
of low pressure over parts of the Central/Southern Plains will move
eastward to the Ohio Valley by Thursday, and then the northern half of the
boundary will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday morning.
Furthermore, a part of the boundary lingers over parts of the Southeast
and Central Gulf Coast also on Friday.

As the wave advances to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, it
will bring showers and severe thunderstorms, mainly over parts of southern
Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee.
The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle Mississippi Valley
through Thursday morning. The potential hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of EF2 to EF5
tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
and Southern Plains.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
north-central Tennessee and northwestern Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast,
Northern Plains, and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and westward to the Southern Plains. The
threat of severe thunderstorms will be the highest over parts of eastern
Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Thursday
through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of two inches of
hail over eastern Texas.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and central Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Moreover, moderate to heavy rain will also
develop over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, with a
secondary max over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will produce rain
and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies from
Wednesday to Friday. On Wednesday, the system will produce heavy snow over
parts of the Northern Rockies.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

07 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Fourth Session Opening In The Green, Then Trended Higher, But Closed Mixed

May 7, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 32 points or 0.08%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.13%,
  • Gold $2,323 down $8.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.02,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.455% down 0.034 points,
  • USD index $105.37 up $0.032,
  • Bitcoin $63,073 up $26 (0.04%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.3% in March 2024 compared with March 2023. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.8% from March 2024 to April 2024 and increase by 3.7% on a year-over-year basis from March 2024 to March 2025.

Consumer credit increased 2.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – but only up 0.0% inflation-adjusted. Revolving credit portion (like credit cards) was up 8.3% year-over-year whilst non-revolving credit (like car loans or student loans) was up 0.5% year-over-year. The use of credit is definitely trending down – and credit has been a major driver of the economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Colorado Basin and Great Basin and New Mexico Water Supply Forecast Discussion – Posted on May 7, 2024

May 7, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). You can access their website HERE.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on March 19, 2024.  The situation has improved but there is a lot of variability. It is not the usual north (dry) to south (wet) pattern that one expects with El Nino but more of a north (dry) center (wet) south (dry) pattern related to the storm track where it is wetter than north or south of the storm track.  It shows up in terms of the Upper versus Lower Colorado Basin. Due to a wet winter last year, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape.

 

I have also included information on the current BOR reservoir storage levels including some that are outside of the Colorado River Basin. I also provide information on New Mexico which is partly in the Colorado Basin and mostly outside of the Colorado Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.