18Mar2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Tech Stocks Advance Driving Market Gain

March 18, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 76 points or 0.20%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.82%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.63%,
  • Gold $2163 up $1.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.85,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.332% up 0.028 points,
  • USD index $103.61 up $0.18,
  • Bitcoin $67,050 down $1,304,

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach move 40% of USA container volumes. In February 2024, imports surged 47% year-over-year whilst exports rose 14%. This suggests that the USA economy is improving and so is the international economy. However, as you can see from the graph below – the levels remain similar to those seen 10 years ago.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China’s Solar Power Dominance Threatens Western Clean Energy Dreams
  • Biden Charges Forward With Historic Auto Emission Crackdown
  • Is a Copper Crisis Coming? Prices Hit New Highs on Smelter Cuts
  • CNOOC Makes Another Major Oil Discovery Offshore China
  • Nations Divided Over Fees on Shipping Industry Emissions
  • Saudi Aramco CEO says energy transition is failing, world should abandon ‘fantasy’ of phasing out oil
  • Bitcoin slips further below $68,000, adding to weekend losses
  • Odds of a June rate cut by Fed slip below 50%, according to this gauge

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 18, 2024

March 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024 – 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024

…A few rounds of lake effect snow forecast downwind of the Great Lakes
over the next few days...

…Cold morning temperatures bring a frost/freeze risk to parts of the
Mid-South and Southeast on Tuesday…

…Record breaking warmth continues across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Great Basin…

The new workweek will start off by featuring a weather pattern consisting
of high pressure stretching southward from the northern Plains to the Gulf
Coast. As a result, continuous cold northwest flow will create lake effect
snow chances throughout the Great Lakes today before the next clipper
system swings over the region and into northern New England by early
Wednesday. Accumulating snow is expected across the typical snow-belts
downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, as well as into northern Michigan,
where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow showers could
expand into the Interior Northeast and northern New England on Wednesday
as the aforementioned clipper system swings eastward, with the potential
for accumulating snowfall particularly in the elevated terrain.

This push of cold air underneath and just east of the high pressure
settling over the Deep South on Tuesday will allow for subfreezing
temperatures to extend as far south as the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Frost/freeze conditions could damage and/or kill any
unprotected sensitive vegetation, prompting Freeze Watches and Warnings to
extend from Arkansas to the Carolinas. This cold isn’t anticipated to be
long-lived as temperatures gradually warm by midweek.

Conversely, well above average spring warmth is expected to continue
throughout the Northwest through Tuesday with highs reaching into the 70s.
These temperatures could threaten daily record highs today in Portland, OR
and Spokane, WA. One final day of summer-like warmth is also expected in
southern Florida today ahead of a cold front as highs approach 90 degrees.
This front may spark thunderstorms that could contain isolated hail and
damaging winds for parts of the Florida Peninsula. Lastly, light shower
activity is forecast to continue across southern Texas, as well as
scattered rain and mountain snow showers through the Southwest over the
next few days as an upper level low meanders over the region.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 17, 2024

March 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 17 2024 – 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024

…Locally heavy snow continues across the Southern Rockies today, while
lake effect snow impacts the Great Lakes region through early this week…

…Strong cold front ushers in frost/freeze potential throughout the
Southeast by Tuesday…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast across the Gulf Coast
States this St. Patrick’s Day…

Even as the Spring Equinox approaches this Tuesday, winter weather
continues to impact parts of the Nation with localized heavy snow. The
same closed upper low that has lingered over the Southwest over the last
few days is expected to continue producing areas of heavy mountain snow
throughout the Southern Rockies and Four Corners region today before the
system weakens and precipitation becomes widely scattered. The heaviest
remaining snow is expected over the mountainous terrain of New Mexico,
which could lead to treacherous travel at times. Meanwhile, a potent low
pressure system crossing from southern Ontario to southern Quebec, Canada
today will aid in lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes through
early this week. The cold airmass advecting from the northwest across the
relatively warm lakes will allow for numerous snow showers and localized
areas of moderate to heavy snow. Specifically, the U.P. of Michigan and
Tug Hill Plateau of western New York could see several inches of
accumulation snow. Snowfall chances also extend to upslope portions of the
central Appalachians on Monday and Tuesday.

As a cold front pushes south and clears the Southeast by Monday, much
colder temperatures and high pressure will build in its wake. Low
temperatures are forecast to dip into the 20s and 30s from the Midwest to
the Tennessee Valley on Monday, prior to this cold sinking into the
Mid-South and Southeast on Tuesday. Vegetation in these regions are
susceptible to frost/freeze damage given the relatively mild late winter
temperatures, thus any unprotected sensitive plants could be damaged or
killed. Meanwhile, warm temperatures will remain locked in place over the
Pacific Northwest, where highs into the low 70s are forecast and
anticipated to spread into the northern High Plains by Monday.

One more day of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today along
the Gulf Coast as a lingering frontal boundary focuses rainfall chances.
Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns from southeast Texas to
southern Louisiana due to saturated soils from recent rainfall. A Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. A few isolated
severe thunderstorms could also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region as
well this St. Patrick’s Day.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Looking Back at February 2024 Weather for the U.S. and the World – Posted on March 16, 2024

March 16, 2024Posted inweather2 Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide two links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

I start with the trends of February Temperature looking at first CONUS, then all of North America and then the World both land and water.

This is the temperature trend for CONUS. There was a decrease for February in 2024 as compared to February in 2023. I show all the data for February starting with 1895.

This is the temperature trend for North America. It covers a larger geographical area but I find it easier to read.

The temperature for the world, land and water hit a new record.

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 16, 2024

March 16, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 16 2024 – 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024

…Heavy mountain snow impacts the Four Corners and Southern Rockies this
weekend…

…Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible across southern Texas and
along the Gulf Coast…

…Mild weather continues across the Pacific Northwest and East Coast…

The lingering closed upper low located over the Desert Southwest is
forecast to remain mostly stationary this weekend and produce the
continued threat of heavy mountain snow from the Four Corners region to
the Southern Rockies. In particular, the high terrain of central/southern
Utah as well as the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Colorado
and New Mexico can expect treacherous conditions due to heavy snow.
Additional snowfall accumulations over a foot are expected for parts of
the Southern Rockies through Monday, with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories remaining in effect.

Meanwhile, a stalling cold front extending from the Southeast to southern
Texas will lead to at least a few more days of storminess for the Lone
Star State and remaining Gulf Coast region. The greatest severe weather
threat exists today across south-central Texas and the Middle Texas Coast,
where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes are possible within the strongest storms. Intense rainfall rates
falling over saturated ground may also lead to flash flooding and standing
water in urban areas throughout similar portions of Texas and stretching
into far southwest Louisiana. By Sunday, shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected to stretch along most of the Gulf Coast, with isolated to
scattered chances for severe weather and flash flooding. Given recent
rainfall, parts of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas have been
designated as having a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.

The other notable system to impact the CONUS through early next week is
forecast to clip the Great Lakes and northern New England, producing
mostly light rain and snow showers as well as gusty winds and cooler
temperatures. Locally heavy snow is possible downwind of the Great Lakes
on Sunday and Monday. Before the chilly and below average airmass
progresses into the eastern third of the Nation on Monday, mild afternoon
temperatures into the 60s and 70s can be expected this weekend in the
East. More importantly, the cold airmass on the way will contain a morning
frost/freeze threat on Monday throughout the Midwest and Ohio Valley as
lows dip into the 20s and 30s.

Upper riding anchored over the Northwest will continue the warm and dry
pattern throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin,
expanding into the northern High Plains on Monday. Highs into the 60s and
70s are forecast, which could break a few daily high temperature records.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

15 Mar 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Lower, Continued The Downward Trend Line From Thursday’s Session, Finally Closing Moderately Lower

March 15, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.49%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.65%,
  • Gold $2,160 down $7.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.25,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.308% up 0.010 points,
  • USD index $103.44 up $0.080,
  • Bitcoin $68,630 down $1,080 (1.68%), – Historic high 73,798.25
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +7 to 629 Canada -18 to 207

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production remained down 0.2% year-over-year in February 2024. Manufacturing subindex continued in negative territory at -0.4% year-over-year. Utilities subindex increased to 0.8% gain year-over-year, and the mining subindex declined but was still up 1.4% year-over-year. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March 2024 showed the headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

Michigan Consumer sentiment moved little this month with a 0.4 index point decrease that is well within the margin of error, and thus sentiment has been steady and essentially unchanged since January 2024. Sentiment remained almost 25% above November 2023 and is currently halfway between the historic low reached during the peak of inflation in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings. Small improvements in personal finances were offset by modest declines in expectations for business conditions. After strong gains between November 2023 and January 2024, consumer views have stabilized into a holding pattern; consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating. Indeed, many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long term, pending the results of this November’s election.

U.S. import prices declined 0.8% year-over-year in February 2024. Prices for U.S. exports declined 1.8% year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Bloomberg Survey: Brent To Exceed $80 By Year’s End
  • U.S. Oil, Gas Activity Picks Up But Slow Start to the Year
  • Bitcoin’s Success May Be Its Downfall
  • Court Halts New Mining Permits in Argentina’s Key Lithium Region
  • EU Warns of Heightened Somali Piracy Threat to Shipping
  • S&P 500 closes lower on inflation worries, notches second straight weekly loss: Live updates
  • Bitcoin falls below $70,000 in overnight sell-off: CNBC Crypto World
  • Alaska’s ice road oil truckers are in a boom, and causing a backlash
  • Fisker Shares Surge On Talks With Large Automaker Following Bankruptcy Fears
  • McDonald’s blames global outage on third party
  • 10-year Treasury yield sees biggest weekly advance since October after hot U.S. data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on March 14, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory/La Nina Watch Continues. Not Much Change on the Timing – Published March 15, 2024

March 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory La Nino Watch”

The exact timing of the transition is not very clear which will impact the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.

We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.

 

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

 

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 .  While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year.  Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024.  Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.  The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña.  Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).”

We now provide additional details.  The level of uncertainty with respect to how this El Nino will play out has not changed very much.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. FMA stands for February/March/April.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.  This kind of bar chart is not very good at showing uncertainty.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are not very different.
Click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 15, 2024

March 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Mar 15 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 15 2024 – 12Z Sun Mar 17 2024

…Heavy mountain snow continues throughout the Four Corners region into
this weekend…

…Severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall chances shift south into the
Southeast and Gulf Coast States…

…Mild weather continues across the Pacific Northwest and East Coast…

A meandering closed upper low spinning over the Desert Southwest will
continue to funnel moisture northward into the Four Corners region and
create additional chances for heavy mountain snow through the weekend.
Snow chances will diminish today across the central/southern High Plains
as upslope flow weakens, but mountainous terrain of the central and
southern Rockies can expect an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow through
Sunday. The higher elevations of southern Utah and Arizona can also expect
snowfall accumulations over a foot, which will create hazardous driving
conditions. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect for these regions.

Farther east, waves of low pressure and an associated cold front are
forecast to slide south and east today while stretching from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains. Heavy rain and scattered
thunderstorms will accompany this system, with the greatest chances for
severe weather and/or flash flooding located across parts of the Mid-South
and south-central Texas. For these areas, thunderstorms could be strong
enough to contain damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Meanwhile,
the primary risk across south-central Texas is expected to be associated
with large hail and scattered flash flooding. By this weekend, the
aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to stall along the Gulf Coast
and southern Texas, resulting in additional chances for heavy rain that
could lead to scattered flooding concerns from south-central Texas to
southern Mississippi.

The other notable weather system to impact the Lower 48 will be a potent
low pressure system passing to the north of the Great Lakes on Saturday
and nearing Maine on Sunday. The greatest impacts are anticipated to be
associated with gusty winds across the Great Lakes and decreasing
temperatures throughout the Upper Midwest by Sunday. Additionally, periods
of lake effect snow could be locally heavy across the U.P. of Michigan
downwind of Lake Superior. Otherwise, strong southerly flow on the eastern
side of this system will keep much of the East Coast mild with high
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. The other warm spots over the next
few days include the Pacific Northwest and Southeast, where a few daily
record highs are possible. Parts of western Washington and Oregon may see
highs into the mid-70s, while mid-to-upper 80s are found throughout the
Sunshine State.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

14 Mar 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Higher, Trended Down, Ending Session Moderately Down In The Red

March 14, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 138 points or 0.35%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.29%,
  • Gold $2,167 down $13.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $1.40,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.292% up 0.100 points,
  • USD index $103.31 up $0.520,
  • Bitcoin $69,710 down $3,4841 (4.75%), New Historic high 73,798.25

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were up 1.5% above February 2023 according to the US Census tables. However, using the St Louis Fed’s FRED database, retail sales are up 5.5% year-over-year in February 2024. Take your pick 🙂

In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 3,750 from 212,250 to 208,500.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI) advanced 1.6% for the 12 months ended in February 2024, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023. The rise in the PPI can be traced to oil prices.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Brent Soars Past $85 As IEA Recalculates Supply, Demand
  • Gold Prices Soar Past $2,150 After Bullish Rally
  • Fourth Russian Lukoil Exec Found Dead by Apparent Suicide
  • U.S. Drivers Warned to Brace For Jump in Gasoline Prices
  • The U.S. Is Betting Big on Small Nuclear Reactors
  • Dow closes more than 100 points lower, snaps 3-day win streak after hot inflation report: Live updates
  • This week provided a reminder that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon
  • Bitcoin and ether fall as investors press pause on rally: CNBC Crypto World
  • ‘Bad News’ Is Bad News For Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, & Gold
  • How Overpaid Are State And Local Government Workers Compared To Private
  • Long-term Treasury yields jump by most in a month after hot producer-price report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.