The full data sets for the 56 years from 1966 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for U.S. federal deficit spending growth and inflation changes.1 This post continues that analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 56-year timeline.
From a photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 16 2024…Severe thunderstorms possible over interior portions of the Northeast
on Sunday……Lingering locally heavy showers and moderate to heavy snow in
California Sunday……Intensifying storm system over the Plains to bring the threat of severe
weather Monday……Well above average temperatures across the central/eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains
Monday….An upper-level shortwave/surface frontal system dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley/Interior Northeast Sunday will
bring a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. Strong wind fields
overlapping a southward moving cold front from central Ohio east into
Pennsylvania will lead to some supercell structures and potentially a
developing line of more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (level 3/5) for the threat
of some damaging wind gusts with these storms, along with a few instances
of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Some locally heavy downpours
will also be possible, and wet antecedent conditions through the terrain
of the Appalachians could lead to an isolated risk of some flash flooding
across this region as well. Storm chances should quickly diminish
overnight Monday as the frontal system pushes southeastward off the East
Coast.A deep upper-level low and associated surface frontal system over the West
will continue to progress eastward during the day Sunday. A few areas of
heightened precipitation will continue under the influence of the low,
particularly for portions of southern Oregon/northern California and
southern California. Moderate to locally heavy lower elevation
coastal/valley rain showers, including some thunderstorms, are expected.
Moist onshore/upslope flow along the Transverse Ranges of southern
California may lead to a couple inches of rain on top of wet antecedent
soils from Saturday’s rainfall, with an isolated threat for flooding.
Higher elevation mountain snow will also continue in California, with a
few more inches of accumulations forecast for the Sierra Nevada.
Precipiation chances will spread further inland with the system with some
lower elevation valley rain and higher elevation snow possible for the
northern Rockies and central Great Basin Sunday evening, continuing into
Monday for the Great Basin and spreading into the central Rockies. Some
moderate snow accumulations will be possible for the higher mountain
elevations here as well.As the system spreads into the Plains, lee cyclogenesis will help to
deepen the surface low pressure system, with intensifying moist southerly
flow from the Gulf leading to widespread shower and thunderstorm
development by Monday evening. This will be most likely for upslope
portions of the northern/central High Plains northwest of the low, along
the arcing cold front south across the central/southern Plains, and
eastward along a warm front into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Strong
buoyancy and strengthening low to upper-level flow will lead to the threat
of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a broad
Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) across the central/Southern
Plains for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been included over western
Oklahoma/northwest Texas where a locally higher risk for very large hail
exists. While storms will tend to be rather progressive, especially with
southern extent along the cold front, the influx of higher moisture may be
enough for some locally heavier downpours and an attendant isolated risk
for flash flooding. The storms will continue to progress eastward into the
Midwest and Mississippi Valley overnight Monday and into the day Tuesday,
just beyond the current forecast period.A broad area of well above average temperatures will continue across the
central/eastern U.S. Sunday and Monday as ridging leads the approaching
system over the West. Highs from the central/southern Plains through the
Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast will be into the
80s. Some 90s will even be possible Sunday over the central/southern High
Plains. Unfortunately, strengthening winds with the intensifying system
over the Plains on top of dry conditions behind a surface dryline through
the central/southern Plains has prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather
(level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the
central/southern High Plains Monday. Conditions will also be warm along
the northern tier as well, with 60s and 70s from the Northern Plains to
the Great Lakes. Cooler temperatures will prevail over most of the West
under the influence of the upper-low and following cold frontal passage,
with 50s and 60s over California Sunday spreading further into the Great
Basin Monday. Highs in the Desert Southwest will generally be in the 70s.
Warmer temperatures will arc northwest into the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies Sunday, with highs in the 60s and 70s, though cooler temperatures
will also follow here Monday.
Once a month USDA issues two reports on World Agriculture: One on Supply and Demand and one on Production. USDA does not make it easy to find these reports. It is probably because they are produced by two different parts of USDA and the arrangement may change a bit from time to time.
I do not publish this article every month since it is difficult to prepare but this is a time of the year when the information is very relevant and important in terms of:
A. How production may have been impacted by El Nino which is wet for the U.S. but dry for many parts of the World.
B. How Supply and Demand might be impacted by Global Warming and
C. The impact from and on the World GeoPolitical situation.
In this article, I am presenting the summary of the World Supply and Demand Estimates. In a few days, I will publish an article on production which is a component of Supply. Supply takes into account changes in inventory. It is like the difference between a P&L and a balance sheet or as economists express it flows and stocks. People who rely on these reports understand the nuances. In this article, I am simply providing the summary of the WASDE report for April of this year.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Apr 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024…Heavy lower elevation rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds forecast for
California……Shower and thunderstorm chances from the Great Lakes into the Northeast
this weekend, with a threat for some severe weather in the Upper Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians Sunday……Well above average temperatures across the Interior West/central U.S.
Saturday expand to the East Coast Sunday…A deep upper-level closed low and associated surface frontal system
approaching the California coast this morning will be the dominant driver
of hazardous weather for the country for at least the next several days.
Pacific moisture flowing inland will bring moderate to locally heavy lower
elevation coastal/valley rain showers and thunderstorms to portions of the
Pacific Northwest and California Saturday. The heaviest rain totals are
expected where the moist flow intersects favorable upslope regions along
the central Coastal Ranges into the Transverse Ranges and northern/central
Sierra, and some isolated instances of flooding could occur. Rainfall
amounts overall should come down into the day Sunday as the system moves
further inland and the influx of moisture from the ocean decreases.
However, some locally heavy amounts are once again possible, particularly
for the Transverse Ranges where wet antecedent conditions from the prior
days rainfall will bring another risk of some isolated flooding. In
addition to rainfall, higher elevations in the northern Coastal Ranges,
Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada will see some moderate snowfall
accumulations, with Winter Weather Advisories in place. Much cooler air
settling in following the passage of the cold front and with the deep
upper-low overhead will even lead to some snow for higher elevations in
the mountains around greater Los Angeles. Some light to moderate lower
elevation rain showers and higher elevation snow will also spread into the
Great Basin Saturday and northern Great Basin/Rockies Sunday. Otherwise,
conditions in vicinity of the system will be rather dry as it pushes
through the Rockies and into the Plains by Monday morning, with a renewed
threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, including some
severe weather, later Monday just beyond the current forecast period.
Winds will also be rather gusty as the system passes through the West.Some lingering areas of light to moderate showers continue this morning
across portions of the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast, rotating around a
deep cyclone located in southeastern Canada. Some higher elevations of the
Appalachians may see some snow mix in. Gusty winds will remain in place as
well. Shower chances should taper off into the day as the cyclone moves
away from the U.S. However, a clipper-like system dropping southeast from
Canada will bring a renewed chance of moderate showers and thunderstorms
Sunday to the Interior Northeast, Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley,
and central/northern Appalachians. A strengthening upper-level wind field
will overlap enough surface moisture/buoyancy to lead to the threat of
some severe thunderstorms, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm
Prediction Center from eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Damaging
winds will be the main threat, though some large hail and a tornado or two
will be possible as well.A broad area of high temperatures 10-20 degrees above average will expand
from the Interior West/Plains into the eastern U.S. this weekend as an
upper-level trough departs the East Coast. Some of the greatest anomalies
will be over portions of the northern/central Plains on Saturday, where
highs into the 80s are upwards of 20-30 degrees above average. A few near
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible Sunday across parts of the
central/southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley as highs reach
into the mid-80s to low 90s. The combination of warmer temperatures as
well as dry antecedent conditions and gusty winds have prompted an
Elevated Risk of Fire Weather (level 1/3) from the Storm Prediction Center
for portions of the central/southern High Plains Saturday and Sunday. In
contrast, highs will be cool and well below average in California
Saturday, spreading into portions of the central Great Basin and Desert
Southwest Sunday, as the Pacific system pushes inland.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
I continue to suggest that inflationary pressures are not abating despite the spin from pundits who want the Fed to cut the federal funds rate. I study forces which cause inflation, and part of my reasoning in contained in my economic forecasts. Today, export and import price indices were released – and the disinflation in import prices has disappeared with growth now 0.4% year-over-year. The disinflation in import prices began over one year ago. 15% GDP in the US are imported goods and services – and 49% of all goods sold in the US are imported. One can now expect not only downward pressure on GDP (as imports are subtracted from GDP), but upward pressure from imports on inflation
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment moved sideways for the fourth straight month, as consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy. Since January, sentiment has remained remarkably steady within a very narrow 2.5 index point range, well under the 5 points necessary for a statistically significant difference in readings. Consumers perceived little change in the state of the economy since the start of the new year. Expectations over personal finances, business conditions, and labor markets have all been stable over the last four months. However, a slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled. Overall, consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory La Nino Watch”
The exact timing of the transition is not very clear which will impact the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday.
We have included an ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker that includes two very interesting animations. .
| The second paragraph is what is important:
“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).” Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. “The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 . While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).” |
Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. MAM stands for March/April/May.
Here is the current release of the probabilities:
| This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina. This kind of bar chart is not very good at showing uncertainty. |
| The analysis this month and last month are not very different. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024Valid 12Z Fri Apr 12 2024 – 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024
…Powerful low pressure system to produce gusty winds and heavy rain
across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through
Friday……Lower elevation rain and mountain snow to enter California on
Saturday……Well above average temperatures forecast to surge into the
northern/central Plains this weekend…A broad area of showers and thunderstorms across the Midwest and into the
Northeast will continue Friday as a deep cyclone over the Great Lakes
slowly shifts into Canada. Showers should taper off from west to east
across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley as the low departs, with more moderate
to heavy rainfall most likely along the Appalachians into the Lower Great
Lakes. The heaviest rainfall is expected ahead of a trailing cold front
through New England where an influx of moist southeasterly flow off the
Atlantic along upslope portions of the northern Appalachians contributes
to some more potent storms and rain totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued for portions of New Hampshire and
Maine along and ahead of the White Mountains where the combination of
heavy rain and snowmelt could lead to some instances of flooding. Some
lighter lingering showers will last into Saturday, particularly for
interior portions of the Northeast. Conditions will also remain breezy
across the region with Wind Advisories in place for portions of the Great
Lakes, Appalachians, and New England.In the West, some light lower elevation rain showers and higher
elevation/mountain snow showers will be possible along a frontal system
pushing southward through portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest Friday. An approaching Pacific system will bring higher
precipitation chances spreading southward into California later Friday and
into the day Saturday. Some moderate to locally heavy showers will be
possible along the coast, with accumulating snowfall expected for the
Northern Coastal Ranges, Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for southern portions of the Sierra where
6-12 inches of snow is forecast. Gusty winds are expected here as well,
especially along the area mountain ranges.Cooler, below average temperatures will spread eastward from the Lower
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley Friday into the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Saturday following recent cold front passage. Highs
will tend to be at or just below average further south into the Southeast
and Florida. A broad area of much above average temperatures across the
West/Plains Friday will expand into the Mississippi Valley Saturday as
upper-level ridging shifts eastward over the central U.S. The greatest
anomalies will reside over the northern and central Plains Saturday, where
highs into the 80s are upwards of 20-25 degrees above normal. Much cooler
temperatures will arrive in California Saturday as the Pacific system
begins to move inland.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 2.1% for the 12 months ended in March 2024 – significantly up from last month’s 1.6%. This was a significant increase, and futher undermines those that believe the Fed will cut its federal funds rate this year. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8%.
In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. From this data, you cannot see the economy slowing and continues to reinforce the strength of the labor market.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 11 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024…Powerful storm system to foster high wind potential over much of the
eastern U.S. today with severe weather, heavy rain and flash flood threats
for parts of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley and into the northern
Mid-Atlantic……High wind threat continues across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and into
the Appalachians on Friday into early Saturday as flash flood threat will
be confined to northern New England…An intensifying low pressure system centered over the Mid-South early this
morning is forecast to track northeast toward the Great Lakes through
tonight. This system will progressively engulf the entire eastern U.S.
today with widespread moderate rainfall and a couple axes of heavy rain.
The heaviest rains will be associated with clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the Southeast ahead of a potent cold front where a
few inches of rain can be expected. Another area of heavy rain will be
near and along the track of the intense low pressure system center, from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley toward the lower Great
Lakes where 2 inches of rain can be expected. The intensity and size of
the system will bring the threat of high winds into much of the eastern
U.S. including the Great Lakes, Midwest and the Ohio Valley through the
next couple of days. The southern portion of the potent cold front is
forecast to move off the Southeast U.S. this evening, bringing the heavy
rain and thunderstorms out into the Atlantic. The front will take extra
time to pass through Florida, where a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is forecast to pass through the peninsula today into tonight.
Meanwhile, warm and moist air from the Atlantic will surge up the Eastern
Seaboard tonight with widespread moderate to locally heavy rain under very
strong and gusty south-southeasterly winds.Friday will likely see the moderate to heavy rain and high winds impacting
the Great Lakes and the entire Northeast as the Mid-Atlantic clears out
from the rain. The center of the low pressure system should begin exiting
the Great Lakes into southern Canada early on Friday. However, the size
and intensity of the storm will keep the high winds and heavy rain threat
into Saturday morning from the lower Great Lakes to the Northeast with
flash flooding threat to be confined across northern New England.Outside of the big storm in the eastern U.S., the weather will be
relatively quiet across the Southwest and through the mid-section of the
country under the influence of a high pressure system. The West Coast
will see somewhat more active weather dropping in from north to south
through the next couple of days as a compact but energetic upper low that
originated from the Arctic Ocean dips south and approaches California by
Saturday morning. Mainly light to locally moderate precipitation can be
expected to reach coastal Pacific Northwest today, reaching into northern
California on Friday before sliding south into central California by
Saturday morning. Some of the precipitation will spill into the interior
section of the Northeast by Friday and continue into Saturday morning.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.5% year-over-year in March 2024- up from 3.2% the previous month. The blame for the increase falls to gasoline and shelter. The index for all items less food and energy increased 3.8% – little changed from the previous month. As I have been saying, there is too much upward pressure on inflation (caused by economic conditions, wars, and a political bias towards higher costs associated with safeguarding the environment) to think it is going to decline in the short term.
February 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.8% from the revised February 2023 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 1.5% from the revised February 2023 level. The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.34. The February 2023 ratio was 1.37. This sector is in flux due to supply chain changes, so the only would provide an indication of sector health is the inventory to sales ratio – and this ratio is saying the health of wholesalers is little changed over the last year. Also this ratio is saying the economy is not slowing.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.