01 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Lower, Trades Sideways Just Below The Unchanged Line, Jumps Sharply Higher Into The Green With Fed Announcement, Then Waterfalls Into Mixed Territory At The Closing Bell

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 87 points or 0.23%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.33%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
  • Gold $2,332 up $25.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $2.82,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.626% down 0.058 points,
  • USD index $106.11 down $0.120,
  • Bitcoin $59,921 down $2,905 (4.86%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The first paragraph of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting statement for 01May2024 tells the story why the federal funds rate was unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 %:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

Interestingly, they went on to say:

The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

The point being is that there remains significant pressure which is currently not allowing inflation to moderate – and it will not take much for inflation to accelerate.

According to ADP, private employers added 192,000 jobs in April 2024 – blue line on the graph below. The average pace of hiring has accelerated over the last three months after slowing late last year, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023. Pay growth continues to slow. Only the information sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021. Before the pandemic, it was estimated that the US economy needed to add 60,000–100,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and retirements. However, a Brookings Institution report estimates that sustainable employment growth could be between 160,000–200,000 jobs each month. Either way, employment continues to be a bright spot in the economy.

Construction spending during March 2024 was 9.6% above March 2023. During the first three months of this year, construction spending was 10.6% above the same period in 2023. Spending on private construction was up 7.3% year-over-year whilst public construction spending was up 17.9% year-over-year. Construction is another bright spot in the economy.

The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.2 percent in April 2024, down 1.1 percentage points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a key economic indicator that gauges the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It’s published monthly by the ISM Manufacturing and Services business survey committees and is considered one of the most reliable economic barometers of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing continues its weak role in the economy.

The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March according to the JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report (JOLTS). Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2 million. The number of job openings somewhat correlates to employment growth – and both have been slowly moderating but remain above historical levels.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Weather Outlook for May 2024 – A Lot of Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook – Posted May 1, 2024

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is May of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for May and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for May for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for May. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (MJJ) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the May Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation in the Western States. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting ENSO Blog Post.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for May is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for May and the Mid-Month Outlook for May. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for May and the previously issued three-month outlook for MJJ 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for May 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for May.

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is not totally changed from what was issued on April 18, 2024, but there have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for May.  One expects some changes  12 days later. However, the changes to the May Outlook are significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (April 18, 2024) three-month MJJ temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for May and the Three-Month Outlook. It was attractive but not easy to look at the difference between the current month and the three-month period that includes the current month. So I created my own. It is a little rough.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which include the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that June and July will be very different than May, especially for temperature. You can basically subtract May from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined June-July Outlook.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 1, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 01 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 01 2024 – 12Z Fri May 03 2024

…Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley…

…Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High
Plains today…

…Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average temperatures continue
across much of the Central and Eastern U.S….

The month of May kicks off with severe weather and excessive rainfall
threats over the Central U.S.. A developing low pressure system over the
Central High Plains of Colorado will contribute to the initiation of
scattered to isolated thunderstorms across the Great Plains today. The
Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over parts of southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma this
afternoon into the evening. A few tornadoes, very large hail and damaging
winds are expected for the broader Central/Southern Plains region. The
surface wave will lift into the Central Plains this evening and support
enhanced rain rates over parts of northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, where a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) originating from a
dryline in the Southern High Plains will grow as they propagate into a
very moist environment in central and eastern Texas today. Given the
saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall, a Moderate Risk (at least 40%)
of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of eastern Texas in
between the Dallas and Houston metros this evening. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms should wrap up this afternoon across the Carolina/Southeast
coast.

Severe storms and excessive rainfall threats shift into the Mississippi
Valley on Thursday as the low pressure system moves into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will proliferate across the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect. The MCS associated with tonight’s
excessive rainfall threat will shift into the ArkLaTex region Thursday
morning. An upper trough anchored over the Northwest will support below
average temperatures across the region for the next few days. With cold
air in place, an embedded shortwave impulse will contribute to high
elevation snow across the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Between 6-12
inches of snow is forecast to accumulate with isolated higher amounts most
likely over northwestern Montana by Friday morning. Temperatures will
remain above average, for the most part, across the eastern half of the
country through Friday before a cold front moderates things a bit heading
into the weekend.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

30 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Finishes April Over 570 Points In The Red, Followed By Nasdaq And The S&P 500 Over One Percentage Point Down Closing At Session Lows

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 570 points or 1.49%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.04%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.57%,
  • Gold $2,305 down $53.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.92,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.690% up 0.080 points,
  • USD index $106.28 up $0.700,
  • Bitcoin $59,598 down $3,313 (5.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3% in February 2024, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. Not good news for those who do not own a house.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April 2024, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held steady for more than two years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income. Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future. In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 37.9 in April 2024, down from 41.4 in the prior month and below market forecasts of 45. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth successive month in April, and at a robust pace, marking the strongest decline since November 2022. The markets look to the Chicago PMI as a forward indicator of the ISM Manufacturing Index which will be released tomorrow. The Chicago PMI is showing a terrible manufacturing picture.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

 

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index was unchanged and remained slightly in positive territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters whilst others are barely above recessionary levels. There remain three major indicators that suggest a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 30, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 30 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024 – 12Z Thu May 02 2024

…Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through mid-week…

…Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High
Plains on Wednesday…

…Cool and snowy in the Northwest; warmer across the Central and Eastern
U.S….

A pair of low pressure systems will bring showers and thunderstorm
activity to parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. respectively today. The
Central U.S. system will progress quickly through the Plains and into the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley today/tonight. The Storm Prediction Center
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for parts of
the Middle Missouri Valley into the Central Plains for this
afternoon/evening where very large hail, severe wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are expected. Some storms may produce heavy rain with high
rates, which is why a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for parts of southeastern Kansas
into northeastern Oklahoma. Another area of low pressure is forecast to
develop out of the Southern Plains, and generate another round of storms
across the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. SPC issued another
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over much of central Kansas and
northern Oklahoma while we have a broader Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall extending from northeastern Texas up into eastern Nebraska and
much of Iowa. A few tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds are
possible from any severe storms that occur.

Meanwhile, a slow moving mid-level low anchored over the Northwest will be
the reason why they experience below average temperatures over the next
few days. Embedded shortwave energy will support high elevation snow for
the Cascades and Northern Rockies, where snowfall accumulations will be in
the general range of 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts possible by
Thursday morning. An amplifying ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
will support above average temperatures across most of the eastern third
of the country over the next several days. Strong southerly flow into the
Plains beneath the right exit region of the upper trough will promote
warming across the region over the next few days. Lee cyclogenesis will
contribute to dry and windy conditions across portions of the Southwest
and Southern High Plains, which will support a Critical Risk of Fires on
Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

29 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Opened Fractionally Higher, Traded Sideways, Indexes Closed About Where They Opened

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 147 points or 0.38%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.32%,
  • Gold $2,346 down $1.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $1.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.624% down 0.047 points,
  • USD index $105.62 down $0.280,
  • Bitcoin $62,815 down $941 (1.48%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Texas manufacturing survey‘s output strengthened slightly in April 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from -4.1 to 4.8. Other measures of manufacturing activity were mixed this month. The new orders index remained negative, though it pushed up seven points to -5.3. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes turned positive this month, coming in at 4.2 and 5.0, respectively. Manufacturing is not a bright spot in the current economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 29, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 29 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024 – 12Z Wed May 01 2024

…Severe Weather and Flash Flooding concerns shift into the Lower
Mississippi Valley today…

…High-elevation snow is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday…

…Warmer than average temperatures spread from Midwest to Mid-Atlantic;
colder weather returns to the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest
with warming trend across the central/southern High Plains…

Fortunately, the worst of the heavy rain and thunderstorms should be
behind us by this evening. The complex of storms responsible for Flash
Flood emergencies over parts of eastern Texas overnight, are forecast to
move through southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana today. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) out for parts of
southern Louisiana due to the threat of severe wind gusts and hail. We
issued a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding for much of central/southern Louisiana for today due to the
potential for high rain rates in that aforementioned line of storms.
Meanwhile, snow showers are likely to develop over the higher elevations
of the Northwest this morning and continue into early this evening before
tapering off. Another round of snow showers are expected to occur on
Tuesday afternoon/evening over the same area beneath another upper-level
disturbance. Snowfall on the order of 6-12 inches with isolated higher
amounts are forecast to accumulate over parts of the Cascades and Northern
Rockies by Tuesday morning.

An organized low pressure system will spread showers and thunderstorms
across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms
for parts of eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, northwest Missouri, eastern
Kansas, southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on Tuesday with a
risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes being the
primary threats. Downstream of this, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will move through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and into the
East Coast on Tuesday. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains Marginal (at
least 5%) for those areas at this time.

Temperature-wise, upper troughs propagating through the Northwest and
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will keep things cooler than average today.
Things warm up a bit across the Central U.S. up into the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday. Temperatures will be well above average across much of the East
Coast this week with today being the warmest of the bunch. There’s a
chance for several stations in the Mid-Atlantic to tie or break high and
low temperature records today and tomorrow with highs in the 80s to low
90s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 4

This article concludes the analysis of the correlation patterns between quarterly Federal Deficit Spending (FDS) and Consumer Inflation (CPI).  The last of the three types of inflation patterns (time periods with no significant inflation trends) is the subject of analysis here.  The other two types of patterns (inflation surges1 and disinflation/deflation surges2) were analyzed previously.  The conclusion discusses the correlation patterns for all time periods, looks for any common threads, and identifies important differences across time periods and types of correlation patterns.


From photo by Live Richer on Unsplash.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 28, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 28 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024

…More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push
eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley today and Monday…

…High-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Monday…

…Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic
today while well below average temperatures shift from the Four Corners
and Rockies into the Northern Plains…

More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the
mid-section of the country through the remainder of the weekend into
Monday. Multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level
trough responsible for the active weather are currently developing another
low pressure system over the Central Plains. Today, the main area of
thunderstorms will push farther eastward toward the Mid and Lower
Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat of severe weather than
Saturday. Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther southeast into
the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated with the low
pressure system begins to weaken. The center of the low is forecast to
track northeast across the Central Plains on Sunday, reaching into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms can be
expected to extend northeast across these areas including the Midwest
ahead of a warm front to the east of the low pressure center. Meanwhile,
the threat of heavy rain will push farther southeast into the Lower to
Mid-Mississippi Valley as the cold front pushes eastward. There’s are
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of the eastern Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
today and extending into just the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the eastern
Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley today.

Elsewhere, another low pressure system will begin to move away from the
Great Lakes into Canada with scattered showers ending over the Upper Great
Lakes but continuing from the Lower Great Lakes into New England. Strong
southerly flow behind a high pressure system will bring very warm air
northward into the East Coast through the next couple of days with high
temperatures climbing well into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for
the interior Mid-Atlantic. These temperatures will be in contrast to the
cool temperatures expected for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next
upper-level trough from the Pacific is forecast to push inland. This
trough will bring widespread high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain
across the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Rockies on Monday with
increasingly windy conditions as a low pressure system begins to develop
over the Northern High Plains into southern Canada.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.