29 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Major Indexes Opened Sharply Lower, Continued To Trade Sideways For The Entire Session, The Dow Slides More Than 400 Points

May 29, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 411 points or 1.06%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.74,
  • Gold $2,337 down $19.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.79,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.614 up 0.072 points,
  • USD index $105.13 up $0.520,
  • Bitcoin price is $67,209.30, a change of -1.69% over the past 24 hours as of 4:02 p.m.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey shows manufacturing activity improved but remained sluggish in May 2024. The diffusion manufacturing index increased from −10 in April to -6 in May. Note that the one month manufacturing index improved from -7 to 0 – of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −10 to 13, new orders increased from −9 to −6, and employment fell from −2 to −6. Manufacturing in the U.S. remains in a recession.

The May 2024 Beige Book (which is an anecdotal post on current economic conditions in each Federal Reserve District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources) said only that the economy “continued to expand” – and did not give many reasons to be optimistic about the direction of the economy. The summary paragraph read as follows:

National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Most Districts reported slight or modest growth, while two noted no change in activity. Retail spending was flat to up slightly, reflecting lower discretionary spending and heightened price sensitivity among consumers. Auto sales were roughly flat, with a few Districts noting that manufacturers were offering incentives to spur sales. Travel and tourism strengthened across much of the country, boosted by increased leisure and business travel, but hospitality contacts were mixed in their outlooks for the summer season. Demand for nonfinancial services rose, and activity in transportation services was mixed, as port and rail activity increased whereas reports of trucking and freight demand varied. Nonprofits and community organizations cited continued solid demand for their services, and manufacturing activity was widely characterized as flat to up, though two Districts cited declines. Tight credit standards and high interest rates continued to constrain lending growth. Housing demand rose modestly, and single-family construction increased, though there were reports of rising rates impacting sales activity. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector softened amid supply concerns, tight credit conditions, and elevated borrowing costs. Energy activity was largely stable, whereas agricultural reports were mixed, as drought conditions eased in some Districts, but farm finances/incomes remained a concern. Overall outlooks grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

May 29, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally declined but remained slightly in positive territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters, other sectors are barely above recessionary levels, whilst others are in recession territory. A fourth potential major index is now likely indicating a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 29, 2024

May 29, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 29 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 29 2024 – 12Z Fri May 31 2024

…Active central U.S. weather pattern to continue, with heavy rains,
flash flooding, and severe weather possible…

…Anomalous heat continues across far southern Texas and Florida, while
hot temperatures begin to build in the Southwest and interior California
Valleys…

The active and stormy weather pattern impacting the central U.S. is set to
continue over the next few days while also expanding in coverage to
include much of the Great Plains, middle and lower Mississippi Valley. For
today, a cold front progressing across the Northern Rockies and central
Great Basin in response to a Northwest upper trough will help spark
numerous thunderstorms into the northern Plains and parts of the central
High Plains. A few scattered storms could contain intense rainfall rates,
hail, and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible along
a lingering stationary front extending along the Gulf Coast and southern
Plains, which have greater chances of producing instances of flash
flooding due to thunderstorms overlapping with saturated ground
conditions. As upper troughing enters the Great Plains on Thursday, even
more rounds of slow-moving tumultuous thunderstorm clusters are
anticipated. This leads to a broad region at risk for hail, damaging
winds, and flash flooding from Kansas and eastern Colorado to
north-central Texas. This activity is then forecast to gradually slide
eastward on Friday to impact the ArkLaTex region, as well as extending
into the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Plains once again. Flash
flooding will remain a concern due to the relatively slow-moving nature of
thunderstorms occurring within a moisture rich environment. Widespread
areal-averaged rainfall totals by the end of the week are forecast to add
up to over 2 inches throughout much of Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas,
southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, with localized amounts over 4
inches possible.

Simmering heat is expected to continue for much of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula as highs reach into the mid-90s, which may
tied/break daily record highs today. Highs also returning to the upper 90s
are forecast along the Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas after early
morning thunderstorms. However, a larger area of hot weather will begin to
build throughout the Southwest and interior California valleys by the end
of the week. Afternoon temperatures into the upper 90s and triple digits
can be expected.

Elsewhere, high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southeast
will keep most areas east of the Mississippi River dry with the exception
of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today. A compact storm
system will be swinging eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main weather hazards associated
with these storms are forecast to be associated with lighting and locally
heavy rain.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

28 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Mixed, First Half Of Session Traded Sideways, Nasdaq Records New Historic High, Indexes Close Mixed

May 28, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 217 points or 0.55%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.59%, (Closed at 17,020, New Historic high 17.033)
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
  • Gold $2,358 up $24.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $2.45,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.542 up 0.069 points,
  • USD index $104.60 up $0.001,
  • Bitcoin price is $68,354.36, a change of -1.45% over the past 24 hours as of 4:05 p.m.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board’s  Consumer Confidence Index rose in May to 102.0 (1985=100) from 97.5 in April. It is interesting that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment remains well below 1985 levels whilst this Consumer Confidence Index is now above that level. The Consumer Confidence Survey reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline. The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns. The Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose again in May, with more consumers believing recession is ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’. This contrasts with CEO assessments of recession risk: according to our CEO Confidence survey, only 35 percent of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Consumers were nonetheless upbeat about the stock market, with 48.2 percent expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 25.4 percent expecting a decrease and 26.4 expecting no change.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index posted a slight year-over-year in March 2024 increase to 7.4%, up from a 7.3% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities. Denver, holds the lowest rank this month for the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 2.1% annual increase in March.  CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp added:

Continued home price resiliency amid surging borrowing costs highlights headwinds for the housing market reflected in slow sales activity, namely affordability challenges for potential homebuyers as cost of homeownership continue to skyrocket, particularly homeowners’ insurance and property tax increases. While these costs are driving some sellers and investors to let go of homes, and improving inventory shortages, buyers are maintaining the wait-and-see approach in anticipation of lower rates down the road. Nevertheless, it will be important to see how these non-mortgage costs affect potential homebuyers and existing homeowners longer term, particularly homeowners with fixed incomes. Weakness in low tier home prices in Tampa highlight some of the potential challenges. In contrast, markets in proximity to major employment centers, such as Seattle, Boston, and New York which have benefited from strong labor markets and ensuing wage and wealth gains are helping drive the demand while lack of homes for sale and new construction are putting pressure on prices in these markets.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey edged down in May 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped from 4.8 to -2.8. The negative reading signals a slight decline in output from April. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested weaker activity this month. The new orders index remained negative, though it inched up to -2.2. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes slipped back into negative territory after turning positive last month, coming in at -2.0 and -3.0, respectively. My position remains that manufacturing in the U.S. continues in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 28, 2024

May 28, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 28 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 28 2024 – 12Z Thu May 30 2024

…Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of flash flooding
likely across portions of northern and central Texas today…

…Unsettled weather with thunderstorms and heavy rain possible over the
northern Great Basin/Rockies today before shifting into the northern High
Plains on Wednesday…

…Sweltering heat continues across parts of South Texas and southern
Florida…

The Lone Star State will be the focus for active weather today as strong
thunderstorms develop along a southern High Plains dryline and lingering
stationary front. Ample atmospheric moisture content and instability will
support the likelihood of storms containing significant damaging wind
gusts and very large hail. Ongoing thunderstorms along the Red River
Valley of the South are expected to continue through the morning hours
before numerous additional storms form across western and north-central
Texas by the afternoon. Merging cells and clusters of storms are also
likely to contain intense rainfall rates capable of triggering several
flash floods, particularly for areas just west of Dallas-Fort Worth and
north of Austin. The threat of scattered flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms includes a much larger region extending from the Texas
Panhandle to the western Gulf Coast. For the overnight timeframe, heavy
rain and severe weather chances are forecast to gradually decrease and
slide eastward within Texas. Residents and visitors are reminded to remain
weather aware, have numerous ways to receive warnings and never drive
across flooded roadways.

A cold front progressing across the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and
northern Rockies today will provide enough forcing to produce the
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of containing
damaging wind gusts for parts of northeast Oregon, northern/central Idaho,
and western Montana. A few storms may also produce heavy rain and isolated
flash flooding. This area of unsettled weather is expected to swing
eastward by midweek and enter the north-central High Plains before an
expanding area of storminess returns to the central/southern Plains on
Thursday.

Elsewhere, cold air advection on the southwestern periphery of an eastern
Canada low pressure system will produce scattered areas of showers and
storms over the next few days from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest to
the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. A few storms could contain
hail and brief damaging winds today from southern Wisconsin to northern
Illinois and northwest Indiana.

The heat plaguing much of the Gulf Coast and southern Texas is finally
abating, but will linger across parts of southern Texas today with heat
indices up to 115 degrees. High temperatures are also expected to remain
above average and near daily record highs throughout the central and
southern Florida Peninsula over the next few days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Ten Years of ENSO Blog – Ten Important Graphics – Published on May 27, 2024

May 27, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Climate.Gov ENSO recently was 10 years old and they have been celebrating and Tom Di Liberto produced an article that consisted of 10 graphics that he thought important and I have just reproduced that article here without comment. Memorial Day is a somber day but it is also a time to reflect and I thought that some would find this to be of interest.

It’s hard to believe that ten years ago a ragtag group of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scientists teamed up with an impossibly patient and wise editor and data visualization team at Climate.gov to start this blog. And it’s even harder to fathom how popular the ENSO Blog has become; we’ve had 6.6 million lifetime page views and nearly half a million readers in the past year alone. So, thank you to all of our readers who have stuck with us as we delved into some amazingly complex and nerdy topics (and some amazingly awful puns) over the years.And what better way to celebrate ten years than to shamelessly steal a time-honored tradition in the TV sitcom world, the clip show! But instead of clips, please find a ranking of the best—most creative, most memorable, most useful—graphics that have appeared on the blog. Did your favorite not make the cut? Let us know in the comment section what we missed and why you love that image so much.

Without further ado, here’s a 100% “objective” list of the top ten ENSO Blog graphics.

Most will need to click on “Read More” to access the body of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 27, 2024

May 27, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 27 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 27 2024 – 12Z Wed May 29 2024

…Severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain to impact much of the
eastern U.S., with isolated severe weather possible in the southern
Plains…

…Dangerous heat remains in place this Memorial Day throughout
southern/central Texas, the western and central Gulf Coast, as well as
southern Florida before some gradual relief by midweek…

…Unsettled weather and thunderstorms return to the southern Plains on
Tuesday, as well as the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies…

The severe weather threat shifts eastward today along a cold front
extending southward from a low pressure system forecast to slide northeast
over the Great Lakes. Ongoing storms stretching from the upper Ohio Valley
to the lower Mississippi Valley are expected to weaken this morning, but
redevelopment is likely this afternoon along and ahead of this boundary.
Clusters of merging thunderstorms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast, which may also contain intense rainfall rates. This heavy rain
could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding from northeast
Maryland to the Catskill Mountains of New York, where a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect through tonight. The severe
weather threat includes a broader region extending from the lower Great
Lakes to the Southeast, with damaging wind gusts and hail the primary
hazards, with isolated tornadoes possible in the eastern Mid-Atlantic. As
the cold front extends westward towards the southern Plains, a few
isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible in parts of central and
eastern Texas.

South of the cold front in parts of Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern
Florida, oppressive and dangerous heat continues today. Highs into the
upper 90s and triple digits are forecast throughout much of the Lone Star
State, with a few daily record highs possible. Elevated humidity levels
will lead to heat indices up to 120 degrees across portions of southern
Texas. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect from
south-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a simmering
Memorial Day is also in store for parts of the Florida Peninsula, where
daily record highs could be tied/broken in Key West, Port St Lucie, and
Melbourne. Summer heat is expected to linger over the Sunshine state
through midweek, while gradual cooling enters the Gulf Coast and Texas as
an approaching cold front inches towards the region. Residents are
reminded to follow proper heat safety and check on the vulnerable
population over at least the next few days.

The next round of active weather should return to the southern Plains on
Tuesday as scattered thunderstorms impact parts of southeast New Mexico
and much of Texas near a lingering stationary front. Severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible, as well as heavy rain producing scattered areas
of flash flooding. Meanwhile, a separate area of thunderstorms is possible
along a cold front as it progresses from the northern Great Basin on
Tuesday into the northern High Plains on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
could turn severe and contain intense rainfall rates in these regions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 26, 2024

May 26, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 26 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 26 2024 – 12Z Tue May 28 2024

…Severe weather and heavy rain chances shift into the Mid-Mississippi,
Ohio and Tennessee valleys today before progressing into the Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast, and Gulf Coast on Memorial Day…

…Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across parts
of Texas, the western Gulf Coast, and southern Florida…

…Active weather returns to the southern Plains on Tuesday with
additional chances for severe weather and flash flooding…

An organizing storm system over the central U.S. is responsible for
numerous thunderstorms stretching from Kansas/Missouri to the Edwards
Plateau of Texas. Boundaries aiding this convection include a dryline
extending southward through the southern Plains and a slowly lifting warm
front stretching from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley. Current
storms are expected to grow upscale and merge into a larger complex of
thunderstorms by morning while swinging through parts of Missouri,
Illinois, western Kentucky, and neighboring states. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Additionally, heavy rain may lead
to scattered instances of flash flooding with this initial burst of
thunderstorms. By the afternoon hours another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front and impact
similar regions, with the severe threat shifting further east across the
Ohio Valley overnight. More chances for all modes of severe weather are
possible, with repeating storms potentially increasing the flash flooding
threat throughout parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Area of heavy rain may
also lead to flash flooding concerns near the low pressure center as it
progresses toward southern Wisconsin tonight.

As the center of the storm system enters the Great Lakes on Monday and the
attached cold front extends from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains,
severe weather and heavy rain chances will focus along the eastern U.S.
and Gulf Coast States. More specifically, the greatest chances for intense
rainfall rates leading to flash flooding exists across eastern
Pennsylvania and neighboring section of southeast New York and northwest
New Jersey, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect on Memorial Day. Severe thunderstorms are most likely across the
Mid-Atlantic as well as an area stretching from the Lower Mississippi
Valley to the Southeast. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
potential hazards. Residents and visitors planning to enjoy outdoor
holiday barbecues and parties should remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings.

Oppressive and potentially dangerous heat is set to continue for at least
the next few days throughout parts of southern Texas, the lower
Mississippi Valley, and southern Florida. Highs are expected to reach well
into the 90s for the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast, with triple
digits across southern portions of Texas. Elevated humidity levels will
make it feel even hotter, with heat indices approaching 115 degrees. Daily
record highs are also possible in this region and extending to southern
Florida as well through Tuesday. Residents and visitors are urged to
follow proper heat safety by staying hydrated, taking breaks inside
buildings with air conditioning, as well as checking on the vulnerable
population. Above average and summer-like temperatures will also extend
towards the eastern U.S. today as well before slightly cooler weather
arrives behind a cold front on Tuesday. Conversely, a warm up is on the
way throughout the West as upper ridging builds and spreads highs into the
70s and 80s for the northern Great Basin and northern High Plains.

Meanwhile, the next round of active weather is set to impact the southern
Plains on Tuesday as a lingering frontal boundary and favorable upper jet
dynamics spark developing thunderstorms from western Oklahoma/Kansas to
Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, which is highlighted by a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall throughout central and north-central Texas, as well as southern
Oklahoma. Some storms in the southern High Plains may also become strong
enough to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

M2 Money Supply and CPI Inflation. Part 1

May 26, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

We have found that the correlation relationships between various types of credit and inflation are variable over time.  So far, the kinds of credit studied are government deficit spending,1,6 consumer credit,2 mortgage debt,3 nonfinancial corporate credit,4 and financial sector debt.5 Here, we examine the relationship between the total money supply (M2) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.7


Photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash.

2024 Hurricane Season Official Forecast – Posted May 25, 2024

May 25, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

In this article, I present NOAA articles about the Atlantic Hurricane Season. One is the Outlook for this season and the other is a review of the 2023 Hurricane Season with an informative YouTube. I interweave these two a bit and hope that I do not confuse the reader. Then I provide some additional information on Atlantic Hurricanes and how they are influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Bermuda High, and the phase of ENSO.

 

Some may have to click on “Read More” to access the remainder of this article.