24 July 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Gapped Gapped Down At The Opening, The Small Caps Continued To Trend Lower, While The Dow Traded Sideways, All Three Major Indexes Closed Sharply Down In The Red

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 504 points or 1.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.64%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 2.31%,
  • Gold $2,403 down $15.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.72,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.287 up 0.049 points,
  • USD index $104.38 down $0.070,
  • Bitcoin $65,643 down $297 or 0.45%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

  1. Nasdaq Sinks Over 3%: The Nasdaq experienced a significant drop, driven by disappointing earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. This sell-off has led to increased market volatility, with the VIX reaching its highest level since April.
  2. US Business Activity Growth: Business activity in the US grew at its fastest rate in over two years in July, according to S&P Global’s latest flash US composite PMI. The services sector drove the gains, while manufacturing activity declined.
  3. Tech Stocks Lead Losses: Major tech stocks, including Tesla and Alphabet, saw substantial declines, contributing to the broader market downturn. Tesla’s stock fell nearly 9%, and Alphabet’s shares dropped about 5%.
  4. Economic Confidence Among Small to Mid-Sized Businesses: Despite high economic confidence among small to mid-sized businesses, there are emerging signs of concern, as highlighted in a recent report.
  5. Fiserv to Release Q2 Earnings: Fiserv, a global provider of financial services technology, is set to release its second-quarter earnings results today. The company will present the results during a live webcast

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2024 is 7.4% below June 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 476,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate. Over the last 18 months, the median sales price of new homes is little changed. It is obvious that high mortgage rates are affecting new home sales.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 24, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 24 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 24 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 26 2024

…Major to locally extreme Heat Risk will expand across the northern High
Plains as heat gradually becomes less intense over the Central Valley of
California and the Great Basin…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms will extend across the southern
tier states to the East Coast with heavy rain possible along the Texas
coast today…

…A low pressure wave will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms
across the Great Lakes today and across New England on Thursday…

…Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the
Four Corners region with threats of localized flash flooding while fire
weather danger emerges over the interior Northwest…

A slow-to-evolve summertime weather pattern will continue across much of
the U.S. mainland while a more progressive Pacific cold front sweeps
across the northwestern part of the country through the next couple of
days. Under this weather pattern, unsettled weather and relatively cool
temperatures for July will continue across the eastern half of the country
as the ongoing heat wave over the western U.S. gradually becomes less
intense with the arrival of the Pacific cold front. The stronger forcing
associated with this front will push the heat dome east of the Great
Basin, resulting in the expansion of major to locally extreme Heat Risk
across the northern High Plains through the next couple of days. High
temperatures are forecast to reach well up into the 100s to near 110 at
the hottest location over the northern High Plains through Thursday with
little to no rainfall expected. Meanwhile, the heat will gradually become
less intense over the Central Valley of California and the Great Basin
with time. Please continue to practice heat safety as the heat spreads
into the northern High Plains.

By Thursday night into Friday morning, the cold front will make its way
through the northern Rockies into the High Plains will cooler air arriving
but with very little moisture to work with. Meanwhile, lightning
associated with dry thunderstorms triggered by the passage of the cold
front will result in critical fire danger over the interior northwestern
U.S. In addition, monsoonal thunderstorms will continue across the Great
Basin today and become more numerous over the Four Corners region Thursday
into Friday with the threat of localized flash flooding over the next
couple of days.

In contrast to the heat in the West, cooler than normal temperatures will
prevail across the mid-section of the country to portions of the eastern
U.S. where a stalled front will keep plenty of clouds along with scattered
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are not expected to be severe but they
could result in localized flooding issues from time to time across the
southern tier states as well as up and down the East Coast. A coastal
front interacting with a broad upper-level southwesterly flow could set
off heavy rain and thunderstorms near the Texas coast into southwestern
Louisiana where flash flooding is possible. Therefore, a slight risk of
flash flooding is posted from southeast Texas into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley while another is in effect from the interior portions
of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic farther up along the stationary
front through the next couple of days.

Farther north, a low pressure wave developing along a cold front dipping
into the northern tier states will bring additional thunderstorms across
the Great Lakes today. By Thursday, the Great Lakes should clear out from
the rain but northern New England will see an increasing chance of showers
and thunderstorms as the low pressure wave approaches from the west.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

23 July 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Lower, Then Traded Back And Forth Across The Unchanged Line Finally Closing About Where They Opened

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 57 points or 0.14%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.06%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
  • Gold $2,410 up $15.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.04,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.251 down 0.008 points,
  • USD index $104.47 up $0.15,
  • Bitcoin $65,662 down $1,896 or 2.81%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

 

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity worsened in July 2024 with the composite manufacturing index decreasing from −10 in June to −17 in July. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell notably from −9 to −21, new orders decreased from −16 to −23, and employment edged down from −2 to −5. No matter how you cut it, manufacturing is not doing well in the U.S.

Existing-home sales faded 5.4% year-over-year in June 2024 . The median existing-home sales price grew 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 3.1% from the previous month – the equivalent of 4.1 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. With the high mortgage rates, I see little ability of the lower segment of the middle class to buy a home.  NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s view:

We’re seeing a slow shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 23, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 23 2024 – 12Z Thu Jul 25 2024

…Major to locally extreme Heat Risk will expand across the northern High
Plains as heat gradually becomes less intense over the Central Valley of
California and the Great Basin…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect a large section of the
eastern half of the U.S. with heavy rain emerging near the Texas coast on
Wednesday...

…Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the
Four Corners region with threat of localized flash flooding…

A slow-to-evolve summertime weather pattern will continue across much of
the U.S. mainland as a more progressive Pacific cold front sweeps across
the northwestern part of the country through the next couple of days.
Under this weather pattern, unsettled weather and relatively cool
temperatures for July will continue across the eastern half of the country
as the ongoing heat wave over the western U.S. will gradually become less
intense with the arrival of the Pacific cold front. The stronger forcing
associated with this front will push the heat dome east of the Great
Basin, resulting in the expansion of major to locally extreme Heat Risk
across the northern High Plains through the next couple of days. High
temperatures are forecast to reach well up into the 100s over the northern
High Plains through Thursday with little to no rainfall expected.
Meanwhile, the heat will gradually become less intense over the Central
Valley of California and the Great Basin with time. Please continue to
practice heat safety in the western U.S. and as the heat spreads into the
northern High Plains.

In contrast, cooler than normal temperatures will prevail across the
mid-section of the country and into portions of the eastern U.S. where a
stalled front will keep plenty of clouds along with scattered
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are not expected to be potent but they
could result in localized flooding issues from time to time across the
southern tier states and up and down the East Coast. A slight risk of
flash flooding is anticipated for areas just inland from the western Gulf
states for today from Texas to central Mississippi. By Wednesday, a
coastal front could set off heavy rain and thunderstorms near the Texas
coast into southwestern Louisiana where flash flooding is possible.
Farther north, another cold front from eastern Canada dipping into the
northern tier states will bring additional thunderstorms across the Great
Lakes to New England through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, the Great
Lakes should clear out from the rain but northern New England will see an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure wave
approaches from the west. Meanwhile, monsoonal thunderstorms will
continue across the Great Basin and the Four Corners region with the
threat of localized flash flooding for the next couple of days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

22 July 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, Then Continued To Trade Mostly Sideways And Closing Sharply Higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 128 points or 0.32%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.58%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.08%,
  • Gold $2,400 down $1.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.18,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.255 up 0.017 points,
  • USD index $104.32 down $0.080,
  • Bitcoin $68,267 up $86 or 0.13%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

  1. The S&P 500 rose on Monday, rebounding from its worst weekly loss since April. This rise was primarily driven by a bounce in tech shares, particularly Nvidia leading the tech sector recovery.
  2. The market showed a shift in focus from large technology stocks to smaller companies.
  3. Investors were closely monitoring corporate earnings and central bank policies. There was a high expectation (around 93%) of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut in the upcoming September meeting.
  4. The market was also reacting to political developments, with President Joe Biden exiting the presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.01 in June 2024 from –0.08 in May. This month forty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI while 43 made negative contributions. following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. This is my favorite coincident economic indicator – and it is telling us that the economy is growing near the historical average rate of growth.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 22, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 22 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 22 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 24 2024

…Major to locally extreme Heat Risk expected to expand from the Great
Basin into the northern High Plains by Wednesday as well as over portions
of the Central Valley of California…

….Scattered thunderstorms across the southern Plains to the Southeast
today near a stalled front will gradually shift toward the East Coast as
another front will spread additional thunderstorms across the Great Lakes
to New England Tuesday and Wednesday…

…Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the
Four Corners region with threat of localized flash flooding…

A slow-to-evolve summertime weather pattern continues across the U.S.
mainland as we head into late July. This weather pattern will sustain the
ongoing heat wave across the western U.S. while maintaining cooler than
normal temperatures across the mid-section of the country and into
portions of the East Coast. The prolonged nature of the heat in the West
will keep the Heat Risk at major to locally extreme levels across portions
of the Central Valley of California, and the Great Basin today where
another afternoon of triple digit high temperatures is expected.
Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will set things in motion a bit as the
front moves inland across the Pacific Northwest through the next couple of
days. Triple-digit high temperatures will then expand eastward into
northern High Plains by Wednesday ahead of the front while 110s will
persist across the Desert Southwest and 100s in the Central Valley of
California. Please continue to practice heat safety in this persistent
and prolonged heat wave in the western U.S.

In contrast, cooler than normal temperatures will prevail across the
mid-section of the country and into portions of the eastern U.S. where a
stalled front will keep plenty of clouds along with scattered
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are not expected to be potent but they
could result in localized flooding issues from time to time across the
southern tier states. The upper-level pattern and instability that
support these thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Southeast
today will gradually expand northeastward into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday
and then generally affect areas from across the Deep South into much of
the East Coast by Wednesday. Another cold front from eastern Canada will
dip into the northern tier states, bringing additional thunderstorms
across the Great Lakes to New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile,
monsoonal thunderstorms will continue across the Great Basin and the Four
Corners region with the threat of localized flash flooding for the next
couple of days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Can be Compared to the NOAA Outlook – Posted on July 20, 2024

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The latest observations indicate that there are weak signs of a La Niña. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn and persist into the boreal winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the event.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published yesterday which can be accessed HERE.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on May 14 close to when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of July 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it was issued.

We do not have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for  ASO, SON and DJF so it is really a seven-month forecast as ASO and SON overlap a lot. For each of these three-month Outlooks, I also show the corresponding NOAA Outlook. The two are remarkably similar which is very unusual.

We also have single-month forecasts for August, September, and October 2024. I have a single-month outlook for August from NOAA but not single-month outlooks for September and October I did not show those comparisons.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is cold and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas.  You no longer can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the ASO image but look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. SON  and DJF also show La Nina but are increasingly to the west and may not be in the Nino 3.4 measurement area.  I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. coasts which probably explains their forecast.

Of interest also is the cold water of the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America which can support tropical storms and hurricanes.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 20, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 20 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 22 2024

…A break in the heat continues for much of the eastern two-thirds of the
country but heat will intensify in the interior Pacific Northwest through
this weekend…

…Scattered thunderstorms continue across the South and Southeast as
monsoonal thunderstorms linger across the Four Corners region…

…Scattered thunderstorms over the central Plains today will gradually
shift in the southern Plains by Monday while a cold front will bring new
rounds of thunderstorms across the northern tier states…

A cool air mass settling in across the eastern two-thirds of the country
will offer an extended reprieve from the heat through the next few days.
Afternoon high temperatures will only reach into the 70s and 80s today
from the northern and central Plains eastward through the Atlantic coast
with the exception of the Sunshine State and the coastal plain of Georgia
and South Carolina where highs will remain in the 90s. Texas will have
highs into the 90s to near 100 this afternoon but will cool down into the
70s and 80s by Monday. In contrast, the heat across the western U.S. is
expected to persist, with high temperatures once again exceeding 100
degrees across much of the region. The interior Pacific Northwest will
feel the heat intensify, with afternoon readings possibly reaching 110
degrees at the hottest locations by Sunday afternoon along with little
overnight relief. Daily highs across the Southwest will generally hover
in the 110s. Please continue to practice heat safety in this persistent
and prolonged heat wave in the western U.S. through the next couple of
days. A Pacific cold front will approach the West Coast on Monday,
lowering the heat only slightly for inland sections.

The upper level pattern will be slow to change across the lower 48 through
the next few days. A nearly stationary front will remain draped across the
South and into the Mid-Atlantic region, keeping the cooler air north of
the boundary and the warm, moist air to the south. The front will also
help focusing and triggering scattered thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast
to the Southeast through the next few days. For the Southwest/Four
Corners region, monsoonal moisture will continue to support on-and-off
thunderstorms through the weekend. These storms will keep an elevated
threat for isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather, which
may result from the strongest of the storms. Meanwhile, scattered
thunderstorms over the central Plains today will gradually shift into the
southern Plains by Monday as a weak low pressure wave slowly digs
southward. Across the northern tier states, a cold front arriving from
central Canada will bring new rounds of thunderstorms from the northern
Plains through northern New England during the next couple of days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

19Jul2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Week’s Final Session Ends In the Red

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 377 points or 0.93%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.81%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.71%,
  • Gold $2,401 down $55.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $2.54,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.238 up 0.005 points,
  • USD index $104.37 up $0.19,
  • Bitcoin $66,449 up $2,466

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle about 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the U.S., and over 40% of the nation’s imports and exports.  These ports provide a timely view of import and export volumes. In July 2024, import volumes are up 20% year-over-year whilst export volumes are up 9% year-over-year. Import volumes are now at their pre-COVID levels which suggests a growing appetite for imported goods – all while exports are languishing well below the pre-COVID levels. Further, this month’s data suggests a negative headwind to GDP as imports are subtracted from GDP.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Cuts Crude Exports To China And India By 17%
  • U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Sees Rebound
  • The Biggest U.S. Solar-Storage Project Launches in Nevada
  • Oil Prices Under Pressure as Concerns Mount Over Chinese Demand
  • Houthi Tanker Attack Causes 200-Kilometer Oil Slick
  • Israeli Drone Strike Kills Syrian Oil Kingpin
  • What to know about airline refunds, delays as global IT outage causes ‘mass chaos,’ expert says
  • CrowdStrike shares close down 11% after major outage hits businesses worldwide
  • Russia Warns It Sees ‘Concentrated Presence’ Of NATO Warships In Black Sea
  • ‘Newcastle Virus’ Detection In Brazil Halts Chicken Exports, Sends Shares Of Producers Sliding

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.