I published on this subject for the first time one year ago (The Trump phenomenon explained). This is version 2, with some minor changes from version 1.
The Trump phenomenon can be highlighted by three points as follows:
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Markets experienced a pause on Tuesday, marking the end of their longest rally this year, as all three major indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 concluded an eight-day streak of gains – the longest since November. Investor attention is now shifting towards Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week. This event is anticipated to provide insights into potential interest rate cuts, with many expecting Powell to signal a September reduction amid recent positive economic data that supports easing monetary policy. Analysts speculate that a modest cut of 0.25% is likely, while some suggest a more significant 0.5% reduction could be on the table, depending on future labor market reports.In corporate news, Lowe’s saw its stock decline after the company revised its annual profit and sales forecasts downward, reflecting weaker consumer demand for large purchases. In contrast, gold prices continued to rise, surpassing $2,520 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and the prospect of lower interest rates enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
no releases today
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 20 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 20 2024 – 12Z Thu Aug 22 2024…Severe thunderstorms possible across the central to northern High
Plains through Wednesday with flash flood potential continuing over the
Southwest……Record breaking heat continues across Texas…
After several days of active and unsettled weather, the cold front across
the eastern U.S. has finally largely cleared the coast, aside from coastal
Maine where a few lingering showers will remain possible through this
morning. Otherwise, sprawling high pressure will encompass much of the
Great Lakes region through the East, bringing much drier conditions and
generally below normal temperatures for the next couple of days. High
temperature departures of 10 to nearly 20 degrees for mid-August are
expected for Great Lakes and Northeast. Plan on highs only in the 60s and
70s for many areas from the Midwest to northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. This high pressure is expected to dominate the weather story
for the region through at least mid-week, from the Mississippi River to
the Appalachians.A nearly stationary front will settle to its south across the Gulf Coast
region and then extending northward across the High Plains, along the
western periphery of the high pressure axis. This boundary, along with
interactions with another passing weather system passing through the
Northern Rockies, will bring threats for severe thunderstorms to much of
the central and northern High Plains through Wednesday. The Storm
Prediction Center is advertising a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
weather including damaging winds and large hail.Meanwhile, deep monsoonal moisture persistent over the Southwest U.S. will
bring a daily threat of localized and isolated flash flooding. Slow moving
but intense rainfall producing thunderstorms are possible across portions
of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. For today, the threat appears
to be fairly localized, a greater threat will exist for Wednesday across
northern Arizona where a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall
and flash flooding exists.Finally, underneath a strong upper level ridge, record breaking heat will
continue for at least a couple more days across portions of Texas and
southern Oklahoma. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in
effect and many daily record high temperatures will be possible as
temperatures soar into the 90s and triple digits. Combined with the
oppressive humidity, daily maximum heat indices up to 110F will be
possible. This will create a dangerous situation for some groups,
particularly anyone spending large amounts of time outdoors. They will be
at a heightened risk of heat-related illness. Some of the heat is expected
to spread into eastern New Mexico by the middle/end of the week.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
US stocks experienced a strong rally on Monday, closing at session highs and marking their best week in a year.
Key Drivers of the Rally:
Economic Outlook:
Investor sentiment is shifting towards optimism regarding the economy, with Goldman Sachs reducing its recession forecast from 25% to 20% over the next year. There is growing speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next moves, with traders anticipating a 72% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut in September.
Upcoming Events:
Attention is now focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which could provide further insights into monetary policy. Additionally, the Democratic National Convention is underway, potentially influencing political and economic expectations.Overall, the stock market’s recent performance reflects a recovery from earlier losses and a more stable outlook for the economy.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.6 percent in July 2024 to 100.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.2 percent in June. Over the six-month period ending in July 2024, the LEI fell by 2.1 percent, a smaller rate of decline than its −3.1 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board perspective:
The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead. In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to slow over the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and investments. US real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6 percent annualized in Q3 2024 and 1 percent annualized in Q4.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 19 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 19 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 21 2024…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New England
on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains on Monday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the Southern Plains and
Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley…A front extending from the Northeast Coast across the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast and then across the Gulf Coast State will
move off most of the Eastern Seaboard while lingering over the Southeast
by Wednesday. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of New England as a plume of moisture feds into the
area. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of New England through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and the Gulf Coast State. Showers and
thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Central Appalachians and
Ohio Valley on Monday.In addition, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Central Rockies will
interact with ample amounts of moisture to produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of eastern Colorado. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will create showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Eastern Great Basin, and
Northern/Central Rockies from late afternoon into late evening on Monday.
On Tuesday, the showers and thunderstorms will be over a much smaller area
over the Southwest and adjacent regions. Additionally, disorganized
upper-level energy will aid in triggering showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Further, on Tuesday, an upper-level
low will move over parts of the Northeast, creating rain over parts of the
area. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts
of Florida.As the quasi-stationary front moves southward over the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, the areas under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories have reduced to parts of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Moreover, people spending more time or effort outdoors
or in a building without cooling in the areas of heat warnings are still
at an increased risk of heat-related illness.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 18 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 18 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 20 2024….There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the
Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and then to the Central High Plains
will move off most of the Eastern Seaboard Atlantic while lingering over
the Southeast and southward off most of the Gulf Coast and then across
parts of the Southern Plains by Tuesday. The boundary will produce showers
and severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Gulf Coast
States. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Also, the showers and thunderstorms produced by the boundary will create
heavy rain over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, through
Monday morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Additionally, an upper-level low just off the Northwest Coast will produce
rain, with maybe an embedded thunderstorm over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday. Furthermore, upper-level energy moving over the top
of an upper-level ridge over the Central Plains will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday.Moreover, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will create showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Eastern Great Basin, and
Northern/Central Rockies from late afternoon into late evening on Sunday
and Monday.On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. While, upper-level energy will
trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Further, disorganized upper-level
energy over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains will produce
showers and thunderstorms over the region.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley will produce high temperatures in the low-100s with dew
points in the low to mid-70s, which have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings
and Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley. The sweltering summer heat will continue over the
south as the prolonged stretch of high temperatures in the triple digits
will focus on portions of the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast through
Tuesday. Low temperatures in the low-80s/upper-70s are also forecast along
the Gulf Coast, providing little relief from the heat overnight. Moreover,
the combination of summer heat and high humidity will support daily
maximum heat indices near 110F. Therefore, people spending more time or
effort outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an increased risk
of heat-related illness.
This post ranks the associations between changes in various sources of money and subsequent CPI inflation for inflationary surges from 1952 to 2023.
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay.
Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.
| My comments if any are in boxes like this one. |
| This is the temperature trend for North America. It covers a larger geographical area than just CONUS but I find it easier to read. It almost looks like the temperature has plateaued. |
| The temperature for the world, land and ocean hit a new record. |
| The temperature for the world, (land only) hit a new record. Notice that land temperatures increase faster than land and ocean as water takes more energy. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 17 2024 – 12Z Mon Aug 19 2024…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/Sunday and Southwest/Eastern Great Basin on
Saturday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Ohio Valley on Saturday and southern
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…A front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley and then to the Central High Plains will move eastward
to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast and southward to the Southern Plains
by Monday. On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the boundary from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys.Additionally, upper-level energy will intersect a pool of tropical
moisture over the northern Mid-Atlantic, producing heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.Furthermore, the boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of southwestern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and extreme
north-central Tennessee. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.Moreover, upper-level energy and a plume of monsoonal moisture will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern
Utah and northwestern Arizona. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.In addition, the energy will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Great Basin. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin through
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat
of hail and tornadoes.Also, an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest Coast and associated
energy will develop showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Oregon
and Washington State on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific
Northwest through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.On Sunday, as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower
Mississippi Valley, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of the boundary. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.Further, a strong pool of moisture will be over the Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday, aiding in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will create showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Eastern Great Basin, and
Central Rockies from late afternoon into late evening on Sunday.
Additionally, the upper-level low over the Northwest will produce rain,
with maybe an embedded thunderstorm over the region on Sunday.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley will produce high temperatures in the upper-90s
to low-100s with dew points in the low to mid-70s have prompted Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. The sweltering summer heat will continue over
the south. A prolonged stretch of high temperatures in the upper 90s and
triple digits will be focused over portions of the Southern Plains and
Gulf Coast through Monday. Low temperatures in the low-80s/upper-70s are
also forecast along the Gulf Coast, providing little relief from the heat
overnight. Moreover, the combination of summer heat and high humidity will
support daily maximum heat indices near 110F. People spending more time or
effort outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an increased risk
of heat-related illness.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Stocks End in the Green: On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed modestly higher, securing their best week of the year. Consumer Sentiment and Economic Data: The main economic data release on Friday showed an increase in consumer sentiment in August, marking the first rebound in five months. This positive sentiment, along with strong retail sales and Walmart’s earnings report, helped alleviate recession fears. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Following the positive economic data, investors adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The odds of a 0.25% rate cut next month are now at 66%, while a 0.50% cut stands at 33%. This is a shift from the previous near-certainty of a 0.50% cut amid market turbulence. Upcoming Federal Reserve Update: Investors are looking ahead to next Friday when Fed Chair Jay Powell will speak at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which could provide further insights into the Fed’s monetary policy direction.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July 2024 was 7.0% below July 2023 rate. Privately-owned housing starts 16.0% below July 2023. Privately-owned housing completions was 13.8 % above July 2023 rate. Let’s put these numbers in perspective: permits, starts and completions are on the high side for the period since the 2007 Great Recession. So whilst the umbers are lower than the previous months – they are still economically positive.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.