EconCurrents

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 20, 2024

By Sig Silber October 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 20 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024

…Heavy Rain and light to moderate Snow across portions of the Central
Rockies, and Southern High Plains today before diminishing tonight…

…Rainfall for the Pacific Northwest through Monday…

…Expansive area of above average temperatures settle over the northern
tier…

An anomalous closed upper-level low pressure system will continue to
produce heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms across portions of the
Southern High Plains through this morning before quickly tapering off this
afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to
Flash Flooding is in effect for parts of far southeastern Colorado, the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and northeastern New Mexico where 1 inch/hr rain
rates could cause runoff concerns, particularly over recent burn scars.
Heavy snow is also a concern over parts of the Central Rockies,
specifically the San Juans above 10,000 feet where over 8 inches of snow
are possible. Snow tapers off tonight as the upper low moves away into the
Great Plains.

A broad positively tilted upper trough will continue generating a
prolonged weak atmospheric river event over the Northwest over the next
couple of days. Some additional 1-2 inches of rainfall are possible for
parts of the Pacific Northwest today followed by portions of the Northern
Rockies on Monday. Any snow that falls will be confined to the highest
elevations of the Cascades.

An upper ridge will promote warm southerly flow into the Plains and
eventually East over the next several days. High temperatures in the 70s
and 80s today and Monday will represent 20-30 degree positive anomalies
for this time of year over parts of the Upper Midwest. Overnight
temperatures will be warm enough to rival low records as well. Troughing
over southern Canada and the cut-off low propagating across the Plains
will eventually push the warm air into the eastern half of the country
this week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Ecological Drought – Another Dimension to Drought – Posted on October 19, 2024

By Sig Silber October 19, 2024ClimateNo Comments

Drought has traditionally been viewed in terms of its agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic impacts. However, this does not fully address the impacts to ecosystems, and the critical services they provide to humans. In 2017, an Ecological Drought Framework was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in conjunction with the Nature Conservancy and the Wildlife Conservation Society that intentionally considers the interconnectedness of nature and humans. The objective of this framework is to identify drought policy and natural resource management strategies that are mutually beneficial.

The National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) and the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC) co-organized a series of four webinars in early 2021 to raise awareness of ecological drought and share new research and practical actions to strengthen ecosystem resilience to drought. These webinars introduced the ecological drought concept, and explored how to incorporate ecological drought in planning for ecosystem resilience, wildfire management, and vibrant coastal ecosystems. The series included speakers from the research community, tribal nations, and government agencies.

Remember this is the 2021 Webinar Series. If you want to watch it, click HERE. This will present the above graphic but it will be alive so you can then click on the start arrow. You may have to wait a few seconds and “skip” a commercial to get to the actual presentation.

However, the focus of this article is not the 2021 Webinar Series but the current Webinar Series on ecological drought. It is more than three years later so there has been progress in understanding the causes of and how to deal with ecological drought. There are many different kinds of drought and THIS is a pretty good explanation of the different types. Until recently the different types of drought related almost totally to the direct impact on people. The impact on ecology was almost totally ignored. The webinar series in 2021 was one of the first attempts to consider how drought impacts ecology. The 2024-2025 series of webinars is an attempt to better understand the impact of drought on ecology and the impact of ecology on drought.

Please click on “Read Here” to access the body of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 19, 2024

By Sig Silber October 19, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 18 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 18 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 20 2024

…Heavy snow expected for the central and southern Rockies through
Saturday…

…Heavy rain expected for the western High Plains on Saturday ahead of an
upper low over the Four Corners region…

…Sunny and pleasant conditions for much of the Eastern U.S. through the
upcoming weekend…

A weather pattern change is in progress across the Western U.S. as an
amplified upper trough supports the passage of a strong cold front across
the Intermountain West. This will result in widespread mountain snow
across the higher elevations of the Rockies on Friday, and persisting into
Saturday across the mountainous terrain of the Four Corners region as an
upper level low develops. The potential exists for 10-20 inches of snow
across portions of Utah and Colorado, mainly above 9000 feet elevation.
It will also be turning considerably colder compared to the recent warm
weather that most of the Western U.S. has experienced so far this month.
Highs will only be in the 40s and 50s for most valley locations to close
out the work week and going into Saturday, and below freezing at night.

With the upper level low developing over Arizona, there will be a plume of
increased moisture advection across eastern New Mexico and portions of
adjacent states that will likely result in enhanced rainfall going into
Saturday, where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is currently depicted
in WPC’s outlook. The potential exists for 2-4 inches of rainfall here,
and this could result in some instances of flooding. Some strong to
severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Another area of enhanced
rainfall will be across western Washington, where an atmospheric river
event will likely affect Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula,
producing a few inches of rainfall across the windward terrain.

Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a sprawling surface high will be
anchored in place across the Eastern U.S. and will govern the overall
weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The result will be sunny
skies across a wide expanse of this region, and pleasantly mild conditions
during the day and cool at night. There will be a moderating trend with
temperatures compared to the recent cold spell earlier this week, and
highs are expected to be above normal for many areas with readings well
into the 70s from the Midwest to the Northeast states. The downside is
the developing short term drought conditions for much of this region, with
no rainfall expected through early next week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

18 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Opens Sharply Lower, Recover Losses To Set New Historic High, Small Cap Indexes Close Moderately Higher In The Green

By Gary Hall October 18, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 37 points or 0.09%, (Closed at 43,276, New Historic high 43,325)
Nasdaq closed up 116 points or 0.63%,
S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.40%, (Closed at 5,865, New Historic closing high)
Gold $2,735 up $27.40 or 1.01%,
WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $1.22 or 1.75%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.075 up 0.021 points or 0.176%,
USD index $103.48 down $0.35 or 0.33%,
Bitcoin $68,557 up $1,714 or 2.50%, (24 Hours)
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 585 Canada -2 to 217
U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 585 with oil rigs up 1 to 482, gas rigs down 2 to 99 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks extended their winning streak on Friday, with major indexes hitting new records: The S&P 500 rose to a fresh all-time high, marking its 6th straight week of gains – the longest streak in 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% after setting a new closing high the previous day. Netflix’s strong earnings report helped drive the market higher: Netflix shares jumped around 11% after beating profit, revenue and subscriber growth expectations. This eased concerns about potential struggles for Big Tech companies this earnings season. For the week: The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq added 0.7%. Strong bank earnings earlier in the week also boosted market sentiment. In commodities, gold prices hit a new record above $2,700 per ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns and election uncertainty. The positive momentum sets the stage for more Big Tech earnings reports in the coming days, with investors looking to see if other major companies can match Netflix’s performance.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September 2024 were 5.7% below September 2023. Privately-owned housing starts were 0.7% below September 2023. Privately-owned housing completions were 14.6% above September 2023. Construction continues to be one of the bright spots in today’s economy. The low permits and starts numbers are because the amount of homes started but not completed remains within historical metrics.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Iran Readies New Oil Outlet To Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Drilling Activity Stumbles As Prices Remain Volatile
Oil Slides in the Absence of Israeli Retaliation Attack
UAE Oil Sector Poised for 7.8% Growth in 2025
Billion-Barrel Oil Discoveries Drive South American Energy Cooperation
Stellantis to shutter and sell large testing facility amid cost-cutting efforts
Port of Los Angeles freight rail delays reach two-year high, with holiday and everyday items piling up
Dow, S&P 500 close at record highs and mark the year’s longest winning streak: Live updates
U.S. deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 as interest on debt surpasses trillion-dollar mark
Netflix shares jump 11% after third-quarter earnings beat
Bitcoin climbs 9% for its best week in more than a month: CNBC Crypto World
Did Tesla Just Unveil Wireless EV Charging To Combat Cord Thefts?
U.S. budget deficit in fiscal 2024 swells to third-highest level on record

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on October 17, 2024 – Still based on a weak La Nina starting very soon – Posted on October 18, 2024

By Sig Silber October 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina has been challenging to predict. We are still in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario soon, but the strength of the La Nina may be fairly weak..

From the NOAA discussion:

“El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions remain present, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (SON) 2024 [Author’s Note: We are halfway through that period and still not in La Nina] (60% chance) [and is forecast to persist through January-March (JFM) 2025. Any La Niña event that develops this autumn is favored, however, to be a weak short duration event.”

I personally would not have total confidence in this outlook given the uncertainty about there actually being a La Nina and its strength if it does happen. I do not have the JAMSTEC outlook yet but for sure they will lean towards a weak La Nina with Modoki characteristics. I do not have a lot of confidence that NOAA knows how to deal with a La Nina Modoki. The number of El Nino and La Nina events since 1950 is a fairly small number. When you further segment them by strength you end up with a very small number of events in each category (El Nino v La Nina and three or four categories of strength within each of perhaps 8 to 10 subcategories. This makes both statistical methods and dynamical models have a large error range. We are pretty confident now that we will have either a weak La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias meaning it will be in the Neutral Range but closer to a La Nina than an El Nino. This suggests that there is value in this forecast. The maps show the level of confidence that NOAA (really the NOAA Climate Prediction Center) has for the outlook shown when they show a part of the U.S. or Alaska differing from Normal.

BTW as aside, the NOAA discussion was written this month by my two favorite NOAA Meteorologists.

Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for November

It will be updated on the last day of October.

Then we look at a graphic that shows both the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar. This tells us that December and January will be substantially the same as November for most of CONUS and Alaska. Part of the explanation for this is that NOAA expects La Nina to impact all three months.

–

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through November/December/January of 2026 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for November and the three-month period November/December/January Small maps are provided beyond that through November/December/January of 2026 with a link to get larger versions of these maps. NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article.

In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 18, 2024

By Sig Silber October 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 18 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 18 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 20 2024

…Heavy snow expected for the central and southern Rockies through
Saturday…

…Heavy rain expected for the western High Plains on Saturday ahead of an
upper low over the Four Corners region…

…Sunny and pleasant conditions for much of the Eastern U.S. through the
upcoming weekend…

A weather pattern change is in progress across the Western U.S. as an
amplified upper trough supports the passage of a strong cold front across
the Intermountain West. This will result in widespread mountain snow
across the higher elevations of the Rockies on Friday, and persisting into
Saturday across the mountainous terrain of the Four Corners region as an
upper level low develops. The potential exists for 10-20 inches of snow
across portions of Utah and Colorado, mainly above 9000 feet elevation.
It will also be turning considerably colder compared to the recent warm
weather that most of the Western U.S. has experienced so far this month.
Highs will only be in the 40s and 50s for most valley locations to close
out the work week and going into Saturday, and below freezing at night.

With the upper level low developing over Arizona, there will be a plume of
increased moisture advection across eastern New Mexico and portions of
adjacent states that will likely result in enhanced rainfall going into
Saturday, where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is currently depicted
in WPC’s outlook. The potential exists for 2-4 inches of rainfall here,
and this could result in some instances of flooding. Some strong to
severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Another area of enhanced
rainfall will be across western Washington, where an atmospheric river
event will likely affect Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula,
producing a few inches of rainfall across the windward terrain.

Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a sprawling surface high will be
anchored in place across the Eastern U.S. and will govern the overall
weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The result will be sunny
skies across a wide expanse of this region, and pleasantly mild conditions
during the day and cool at night. There will be a moderating trend with
temperatures compared to the recent cold spell earlier this week, and
highs are expected to be above normal for many areas with readings well
into the 70s from the Midwest to the Northeast states. The downside is
the developing short term drought conditions for much of this region, with
no rainfall expected through early next week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

17 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Recorded A New Historic High And traded Sideways, While After The S&P 500 Made A New Historic High Mark, It Trended Down Along With The Nasdaq To Close Near Session Lows

By Gary Hall October 17, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 161 points or 0.37%, (Closed at 43,239, New Historic high 43,290)
Nasdaq closed up 7 points or 0.04%,
S&P 500 closed down 1 point or 0.02%, (Closed at 5,841, New Historic high 5,878)
Gold $2,708 up $16.20 or 0.61%,
WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $0.37 or 0.50%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.096 down 0.080 points or 0.648%,
USD index $103.80 up $0.21 or 0.20%,
Bitcoin $66,916 down $843 or 1.26%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Tech stocks led US markets higher on Thursday, driven by positive news from the semiconductor sector and strong economic data [note that we believe the economic data was terrible]. TSMC’s (TSM) upbeat outlook eased concerns about AI chip demand, lifting semiconductor stocks: TSMC reported a 54% jump in quarterly profit, beating estimates. The company raised its 2024 revenue growth forecast, citing surging AI demand. TSMC’s shares rose about 10%, pushing its market value over $1 trillion. Other chip stocks like Arm, Broadcom, and Nvidia gained over 2%. Nvidia (NVDA) shares reached an all-time intraday high: The stock hit a new record of $140.89 during trading. Nvidia closed up 0.89% at $136.93. The company’s 52-week high is now $195.95, 47.7% above the current price. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new record close. The S&P 500 briefly touched an intraday record before closing slightly lower.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024 is down 0.03% year-over-year (down 1.1% year-over-year inflation adjusted) if non-seasonally adjusted data is used. For whatever reason, the release says sales were up 1.7% year-over-year using seasonally adjusted data. When you calculate a year-over-year change, non-seasonally adjusted data is used because it is compared to the same month one year ago. This raises a flag that the seasonal adjustment being used is significantly wrong. Further food for thought is that U.S. Census is the only source that uses seasonally adjusted data to calculate year-over-year growth. The bottom line is that retail sales in the U.S. is far from excellent. The poor sales can be attributed to declines in car sales and gasoline.

Industrial production (IP) in September 2024 is down 0.6% year-over-year with its components manufacturing down 0.5% year-over-year, mining down 2.2%, and utilities up 0.6%. Interestingly, capacity utilization is up 1.2% year-over -year which implies that some manufacturing capacity has been destroyed. And like a broken record, manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.

The Philly Fed October 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the latter two returning to positive territory this month. Surveys are a crude tool and the variation month-to-month pretty much warns the reader about accuracy issues. This particular survey tends to be more optimistic than the other manufacturing surveys. I maintain manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S. – and the Industrial Production release above should confirm this.

In the week ending October 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 231,000 to 231,500. This data is not recessionary and the rise in the unemployment numbers reflect the impact of the recent hurricanes.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Russia and India Forge Arctic Alliance
Uzbekistan Faces Uphill Battle in WTO Bid
How High Import Tariffs Could Have A Negative Impact on U.S. Oil
UK Targets Russia’s Shadow Fleet With New Oil Tanker Sanctions
Google CEO names new search and ads boss, slides predecessor to role of chief technologist
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed, Israeli foreign minister says
Historic bitcoin theft tied to Connecticut kidnapping, luxury cars, $500K bar bills
Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected; jobless claims dip
The NFL is chasing a new audience to build on its explosive ratings
Nvidia’s New Open-Source AI Model Beats GPT-4o On Benchmarks
Chinese Stocks Tumble After Latest Round Of Property Stimulus Is A Dud
Oil prices rise as U.S. supply posts a surprise decline, but trend ‘favors the bears’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 17, 2024

By Sig Silber October 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 17 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 17 2024 – 12Z Sat Oct 19 2024

…Powerful Pacific storm to bring much colder temperatures and widespread
mountain snow throughout the Intermountain West and Rockies over the next
few days…

…Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding possible across the southern
High Plains on Saturday…

…Above normal temperatures and gusty winds forecast across the central
and northern Plains today, resulting in fire weather concerns…

As the calendar dives deeper into autumn, colder storm systems are
beginning to impact parts of the country along with wintry weather
conditions. The Intermountain West and Rockies will face the brunt of next
Pacific-bred storm system ushering in below average temperatures, gusty
winds, and heavy mountain snowfall. A cold front marching southeastward
will mark the sharp transition toward cooler temperatures and increasing
snowfall potential. This frontal boundary is anticipated to cross the
Intermountain West between today and early Friday before traversing the
central Rockies and stalling over the southern High Plains by Saturday.
Heavy snowfall is likely in the higher terrain (mainly above 7000-8000
feet) of south-central Montana, western Wyoming, Utah, and southwest
Colorado. As the system slows forward progress and increasing moisture
content surges up the southern High Plains, the potential for heavy
rainfall exists across eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado.
Training north-south oriented lines of showers and storms could contain
intense rainfall rates while remaining over similar locations for a few
hours. This setup could produce scattered areas of flash flooding,
especially for poor drainage locations and urban regions. A Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for this part of the
country in order to further highlight the flooding threat. Additionally,
gusty winds are possible in the central Great Basin and Southeast as the
strong frontal boundary sweeps through over the next few days, this may
also lead to a strong offshore wind event throughout California. Wind
Advisories have been issued for parts of Nevada, Arizona, and California,
as well as Red Flag Warnings for parts of central and northern California
in order to highlight the fire weather danger.

Fire weather concerns also exist throughout much of the central U.S. today
as strong southerly flow aids in producing above average temperatures and
low relative humidity. Red Flag Warnings span from Kansas to Minnesota and
reiterate the potential for fires to spread rapidly. These weather
conditions throughout the Plains and Midwest are in relation to a potent
high pressure system situated over the Ohio/Tennessee valleys that is
expected to settled over the East by the end of the week. Underneath this
high remains below average temperatures and for some places the first
frost or freeze of the season. Low temperatures are expected to drop into
the 30s and 40s for a majority of the eastern U.S. outside of the Florida
Peninsula, but even northern parts of the Sunshine State may need to break
out the sweaters the next few mornings. Temperatures will begin to
moderate by Saturday as afternoon highs into the 70s become more
widespread.

Elsewhere, a separate Pacific system moving inland over British Columbia
on Friday will surge precipitation chances into western Washington.
Rainfall amounts over 2 to 3 inches are possible in the commonly-damp
Olympic Peninsula and northern Cascades.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

16 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Major Indexes Trended Higher After The Opening Bell To Close In The Green Recouping Some Losses Of Yesterday’s Tech Sell-Off Session

By Gary Hall October 16, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 337 points or 0.79%,
Nasdaq closed up 51 points or 0.28%,
S&P 500 closed up 27 points or 0.47%,
Gold $2,691 up $11.50 or 0.43%,
WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.08 or 0.11%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.014 up 0.024 points or 0.191%,
USD index $103.55 up $0.29 or 0.28%,
Bitcoin $67,744 up $833 or 1.23%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday, moving closer to record highs as investors analyzed earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and other companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 ended just short of its own record high. This rebound came after Tuesday’s pullback from all-time highs, which was triggered by ASML’s reduced sales forecast for 2025, affecting confidence in artificial intelligence chip stocks. Morgan Stanley’s quarterly report showed positive signs of a Wall Street comeback, with profits increasing significantly compared to the previous year. The bank’s shares rose by nearly 7% following the earnings release. After Tuesday’s decline, chip stocks bounced back, led by Nvidia with a 3.5% increase. While Morgan Stanley’s results were positive, disappointing earnings from companies like ASML, UnitedHealth Group, and LVMH have kept investors cautious about potential weaknesses in the market. Gold rallied toward a record high, influenced by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential race. Bitcoin rose reaching its highest level since late July.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The import price index declined 0.1% year-over-year while the export price index declined 2.1% year-over-year. On the surface, it looks like import prices are declining but the issue is fuel prices which we know can rise like a rocket with almost any international incident. When you remove fuel from the index (dark line on the graph below), import prices have increased by 1.8% and continues on a rising trend line. There are many upward pressures on inflation in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

DoE Unleashes $900M in Funding for Small Nuclear Reactors
U.S. Bolsters Israel’s Defense with THAAD Deployment
Google’s Nuclear Power Play
Nigeria Fuel Truck Explosion Kills More Than 140
Oil and Gas Industry Faces Setback in Flaring Reduction Efforts
Iran Believes an Israeli Attack on Its Nuclear Sites Remains Improbable
Dow climbs 300 points to another record close on Wednesday: Live updates
Morgan Stanley shares pop 7% after beating estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue
RTX subsidiary Raytheon to pay more than $950 million to settle foreign bribery, export control fraud probes
Bitcoin tests $68,000, its highest level since July: CNBC Crypto World
Surprise fall in inflation paves way for interest rate cuts
ETFs that buy Chinese stocks struggle lately amid ‘lost faith’ in China stimulus

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 16, 2024

By Sig Silber October 16, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 16 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024 – 12Z Fri Oct 18 2024

…Significant pattern change begins today across the Pacific Northwest
and Intermountain West with much colder temperatures and the threat of
widespread mountain snow through the end of the week…

…Above average temperatures build across the central and northern High
Plains with the risk of fire weather increasing through Thursday…

…A chilly mid-October continues for much of the East with frost and
freeze concerns from the central U.S. to parts of the Southeast and
Appalachians…

After some early fall warmth experienced throughout much of the West and
Rockies over the last few days vastly different weather conditions are
expected through the end of this week. A pair of cold fronts traversing
the region are expected to usher in below average temperatures and
precipitation chances. Showers are already evident throughout much of the
Northwest early this morning and will continue to spread eastward today,
before heavier precipitation focuses over the northern/central Rockies and
the Intermountain West from Thursday night through early Saturday. The
greatest weather hazards associated with this strong cold front are
forecast to be from gusty winds and heavy mountain snowfall. Total
snowfall accumulation over 8 inches are likely across the highest ranges
of south-central Montana, western Wyoming, Utah, and southwest Colorado.
Gusty winds may increase the fire weather danger as well and has prompted
Red Flag Warnings to be issued across parts of central California, Nevada,
and western Utah.

Fire weather concerns are also apparent over the central and northern
Plains for the next few days as strong southerly flow surges ahead of the
western U.S. system. Above average temperatures with highs into the 70s
and 80s will produce low relative humidity values and increase wildfire
dangers. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Critical
fire weather area for this region through Thursday, spanning from Kansas
to South Dakota. Elsewhere, Red Flag Warnings are in effect throughout the
central Gulf Coast as strong northerly winds push dry air into the region
behind a potent cold front sweeping southward over the Gulf of Mexico.

This same cold front has helped an autumn chill settle over most of the
central and eastern United States, while a potent high pressure system
also anchors over the region. Low temperatures into the 30s and 40s are
forecast to be widespread and stretch from the Midwest and Northeast
southward to the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. This may create
the first frost and freeze concerns of the season for many, marking the
transition out of the growing season. High temperatures will also remain
below average for this time of year and remain in the 50s and 60s before
moderating closer to normal by the end of the week.