04Oct2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Market Surge Attributed To Strong Jobs Report

October 4, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 341 points or 0.81%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 219 points or 1.22%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 51 points or 0.90%,
  • Gold $2,671 down $7.70 or 0.29%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $74.43 up $0.77 or 1.02%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.971 up 0.123 points or 1.0%,
  • USD index $102.48 up $0.49 or 0.48%,
  • Bitcoin $62,365 up $1,591 or 2.62%,
  • Baker Hughes rig count 585 down 2

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The stock market rallied strongly on Friday following a better-than-expected September jobs report: The strong jobs data suggests the labor market remains robust, boosting hopes for a “soft landing” for the economy. Financial and Consumer Discretionary stocks led the gains. The positive jobs report shifted expectations toward a smaller 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, rather than a larger 50 basis point cut. Oil prices saw their biggest weekly gain in over a year due to the Israel-Iran conflict, though gains were pared on Friday after President Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil fields. The US dockworkers’ strike ended after a tentative wage deal was reached. Concerns remain about the potential escalation of the Middle East conflict. Overall, stocks showed resilience in the face of various economic and geopolitical challenges, with major indexes closing out the week with gains and nearing record highs.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total BLS nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 (establishment survey) in September 2025, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1% (household survey).  In comparing the two surveys that comprise this report – the household survey estimates 430,000 jobs were added whilst the headline establishment survey shows only 254,000. The headline unemployment rate declined because of the significant increase in the number of jobs added combined with a 281,000 DECLINE in the number of unemployed. Well over 2/3rds of the employment gains were in three sectors – health care, leisure/hospitality, and government employment. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs. Weekly work hours declined from 34.3 to 34.2. I see little recessionary data in this report.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Will EU’s EV Tariffs Ignite a Global Trade War?
  • Brazil Eyes Fresh Oil Boom as it Revitalizes Tupi Field
  • Iran Aims at Israel’s Gas Assets if Conflict Ignites
  • Natural Gas Demand From European Industry Is Set to Drop Again
  • OPEC+ Spare Capacity Could Cushion Oil Markets
  • Fears of World War III Are Greatly Exaggerated
  • Fed close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great September jobs report
  • East and Gulf Coast ports strike deal is not close to done: Automation still a big hurdle in ILA/USMX negotiations
  • Stellantis files federal lawsuit against UAW union over strike threats
  • Selena Gomez couldn’t afford to go to her first Disney casting—now she’s a billionaire startup founder
  • “Doghouse Is Back!”: Stellantis CFO Instructs Staff To Take “Drastic Measures” To Conserve Cash

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 4, 2024

October 4, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 04 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024

…Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while also building into the central United States
on Saturday…

…Strong winds and dangerous fire weather concerns forecast throughout
the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the northern/central
Plains…

…Locally heavy rain possible across the immediate Gulf Coast as
unsettled weather develops in the Gulf of Mexico…

A Fall heatwave will continue into the weekend over portions of the Desert
Southwest and central/southern California as a persistent trend of
upper-ridging over the region remains in place. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are forecast as temperatures soar once again
into the upper 90s to 100s. Heat-related advisories/warnings are in place
as the heat remains at levels dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling
or hydration. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be
well-above average Friday elsewhere across the Interior West, with highs
well into the 80s for many locations across the northern/central Rockies
and Great Basin. A cold front will bring cooler, more Fall-like
temperatures to the northern Great Basin/Rockies on Saturday. Higher
heights will also expand eastward over the central United States on
Saturday helping to spread much above average temperatures into portions
of the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast highs in the
80s to low 90s in the Upper Midwest and as high as the mid-90s in the
central Plains are upwards of 20 degrees above average, with
record-tying/breaking highs possible here as well.

A fast-moving upper-level wave/accompanying surface frontal system will
pass along the northern tier of the West and into the central U.S. over
the next couple of days. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be
possible over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with some lighter showers
into the northern Rockies. Additional showers/storms will accompany the
system as it reaches the Upper Great Lakes later Saturday and into the
early morning hours Sunday. However, the bigger story will be widespread
gusty winds and high fire danger with the fast moving system as it passes
through the northern Great Basin/Rockies Friday and into the northern High
Plains Saturday. Wind-related watches and warnings have been issued as
gusts higher than 60 mph can be expected, leading to risk of blowing
debris, potential property damage, and isolated power outages, as well as
difficult travel conditions especially for high-profile vehicles. In
addition, the gusty winds and very dry conditions ahead of the approaching
cold front with the system will bring an increased threat for wildfires.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of
Fire Weather over portions of the northern Great Basin and central/eastern
Wyoming Friday, and the central Rockies into the central Plains on
Saturday. Much of the rest of the region is under Red Flag Warnings and
Fire Weather Watches.

Enhanced tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast will lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy showers for the next few days. The lack of a
focusing system/boundary and scattered nature of the storms currently
suggests a low risk for flash flooding, but an isolated instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, some light to moderate
showers can be expected with a cold frontal passage through the Northeast
late Friday/early Saturday. High temperatures will generally be at to a
bit above average for the eastern U.S., with widespread 70s to the north
and 80s in the South.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

03 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Sharply Lower, Continued Trading With Wide Swings, Mostly Sideways, Finally Closing Moderately Down In The Red

October 3, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 185 points or 0.44%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 7 points or 0.04%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 10 points or  0.17%,
  • Gold $2,678 up $8.50 or 0.28%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $3.83 or 5.31%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.850 up 0.067 points or 0.54%,
  • USD index $101.97 up $0.30 or 0.3%,
  • Bitcoin $60,987 up $314 or 0.52%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks slipped on Thursday as investors turned their focus back to the economy and the upcoming monthly jobs report, while concerns over the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher. Here are the key points: Investors are bracing for the September jobs report to be released on Friday. This comes after a surprise uptick in private payrolls and signs of loosening in the labor market. Weekly jobless claims increased slightly from the previous week, indicating a general cooling trend in the labor market. A report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed planned layoffs in the U.S. decreased from a five-month high. The ongoing Israel-Iran crisis has contributed to rising oil prices for the third consecutive day. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures both gained over 5% following comments from President Biden about a potential Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran’s oil facilities. Signs of labor market deterioration could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider another significant interest rate cut, following last month’s 0.5% reduction. Tesla stock continued to decline, falling more than 3% on Thursday, following disappointing delivery figures and reports of halting U.S. online orders for its cheapest Model 35.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2024 were down 0.6% year-over-year – down from +3.8% the previous month. I believe that manufacturing remains in a recession and no action to re-shore manufacturing is evident.

U.S.-based employers announced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, a 4% decrease from the 75,891 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 53% from the 47,457 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. The current layoffs are a sign of a mature market where employers are trying to optimize profits. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. added:

We’re at an inflection point now, where the labor market could stall or tighten. It will take a few months for the drop in interest rates to impact employer costs, as well as consumer savings accounts. Consumer spending is projected to increase, which may lead to more demand for workers in consumer-facing sectors. Layoff announcements have risen over last year, and job openings are flat. Seasonal employers seem optimistic about the holiday shopping season. That said, many of those who found themselves laid off this year from high-wage, high-skill roles, will not likely fill seasonal positions.

In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,750 to 225,000. There is no sign of a recession in this data.

In September 2024 , the ISM Services PMI® registered 54.9%, 3.4 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 51.5 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in September, 6.6 percentage points higher than the 53.3 percent recorded in August, indicating a third month of expansion after a contraction in June. The New Orders Index expanded to 59.4 percent in September, 6.4 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 53 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the first time in three months; the reading of 48.1 percent is a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the 50.2 percent recorded in August. These are not great numbers as the US is a services driven economy – but at least they are moving in the right direction.

NFIB’s September jobs report found that 34% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in September, down 6 points from August and the lowest reading since January 2021. It appears that the abnormally high unfilled positions in small business is moderating. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

Overall, the job market appears to be softening. Fewer small firms have openings they can’t fill as we head into fall. But many still report trouble finding qualified applicants and plans to increase compensation is once again on the rise.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • AI-Powered Disinformation Campaigns Target U.S. Voters
  • Nuclear Power Gains Momentum as Multiple Plants Seek Revival
  • Reuters Poll Shows OPEC September Output At Yearly Low
  • Oil Explodes 4% Amid Talk of Israel Attacking Iranian Oil & Gas
  • Bank of England Warns Middle East Conflict Could Lead to a Major Oil Price Shock
  • Here’s everything to expect when the September jobs report is released Friday
  • Panic buying amid U.S. ports strike is creating supermarket supply concerns
  • U.S. crude oil jumps as Biden comments on possible Israel retaliation against Iran
  • OpenAI gets $4 billion revolving credit line, giving it more than $10 billion in liquidity
  • States affected by Hurricane Helene warn of price gouging and other scams. Here’s how to avoid being a victim of post-storm schemes
  • Why Open AI’s $100 billion 2029 revenue target seems like a tech-fever dream
  • 10-year Treasury yield ends at highest level since August after better-than-expected ISM data

Click on the “Read More”

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 3, 2024

October 3, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 03 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 – 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms return to the Gulf Coast from Thursday
evening into Saturday…

…Rain develops over the Pacific Northwest and scattered showers over
parts of the Midwest, Central/Southern Appalachians, and Northeast…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

On Thursday, tropical moisture will start to build over the
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. Upper-level energy over the
Western Gulf Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico will move into parts of the
Southeast and Central Gulf Coast, producing showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Gulf Coast from Thursday evening into Saturday. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida through
Saturday. Furthermore, the moisture will also build over the
Central/Southern Appalachians, as upper-level energy moves over the area,
showers and thunderstorms will develop from Thursday afternoon into Friday
evening.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to parts of the
Central Plains will move eastward to just off the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday. The boundary will produce rain with
embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning into the early afternoon. As the front moves into the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the region late Friday evening into Saturday.

In addition, on Friday morning, a second front will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest, moving to the Northern Plains by Saturday. The system
will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday into
late Friday evening. Overnight Friday, wet snow will develop over the
highest elevations of the Cascades. The rain will expand into the Northern
Intermountain Region Friday evening into Saturday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest this
week. Moderate to major heat impacts are possible in areas near San
Francisco, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Extreme Heat Risk impacts are
forecast for parts of the Southwest. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest
Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors or in a
building without cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness.
Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government
websites for information on cooling centers.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

02 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Lower, Trended Upwards And Closed Fractionally Higher In The Green

October 2, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 40 points or 0.09%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.01%,
  • Gold $2,680 down $10.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.13,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.783 up 0.04 points,
  • USD index $101.61 up $0.42,
  • Bitcoin $60,793 down $86 or 0.14%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks drifted higher on Wednesday despite escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, which had initially prompted caution in the market. Stocks had been under pressure at the start of October due to geopolitical concerns, which dampened previous optimism about potential U.S. interest rate cuts. Oil prices extended their surge, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures rising more than 1% on Wednesday. This follows a significant 5% spike on Tuesday, the largest increase in almost a year6. Traders are factoring in potential supply risks due to heightened attacks between Israel and Iran – as well as the ongoing port strikes on the east and gulf coasts. ADP data showed the private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, surpassing economists’ estimates of 125,000 and significantly higher than August’s 99,000. Tesla shares fell more than 3% as global deliveries rose in Q3 but fell short of Wall Street estimates. Nike shares dropped over 6% after withdrawing its annual outlook and reporting lower-than-expected Q1 revenue.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to ADP National Employment Report, hiring showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown, with private employers adding 143,000 jobs in September 2024. Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers fell slightly in September to 4.7%. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said: “Stronger hiring didn’t require stronger pay growth last month. Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But that premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January.” A 143,000 job gains is not excellent but not terrible either. After BLS’s last employment revision, the BLS employment data now aligns better with ADP – and I would expect Friday’s job report to be around 150,000.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China’s Energy Grid Overwhelmed by Renewable Surge
  • Robots are Making Nuclear Energy Safer and More Efficient
  • OPEC+ Leaves Current Output Cut Policy Unchanged at JMMC
  • Oil Moves Higher Despite Rising U.S. Crude Inventories
  • Japan Maintains Energy Policy Focused on Boosting Nuclear and Renewables
  • The East and Gulf coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration
  • OpenAI closes funding at $157 billion valuation, as Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank join round
  • Dow ekes out narrow gain Wednesday as Middle East tensions weigh on markets: Live updates
  • Tesla stock slips after EV maker misses estimates on deliveries
  • JPM Analysts Flip-Flop iPhone 16 Demand Forecast In Just Three Days
  • 10-year Treasury yield rises from 1-week low as inflation worries return
  • Oil prices end at 2-week high as Israel weighs response to Iran missile attack

Click on the “Read More”

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 2, 2024

October 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 02 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 – 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

….There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast on Thursday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central High
Plains/Central Rockies on Wednesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Appalachians
to the Central Gulf Coast moves eastward to the Northeast and dissipates.
On Wednesday, the front will produce light rain over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. The light rain will
end overnight Wednesday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of Florida through Friday.

On Thursday, tropical moisture will start to build over the
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. Upper-level energy over the
Western Gulf Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico will move into parts of the
Southeast and Central Gulf Coast, producing moderate to heavy rain over
parts of the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf
Coast from Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain. Light rain and showers will also develop
over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains to parts of the
Pacific Northwest will move eastward to the Great Lakes and southward to
the Central Plains by Thursday evening. As the boundary continues to move
eastward, light rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and expand into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday.

Furthermore, down-slope flow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies
will create warm air over parts of the Central Rockies, combined with
strong gust wind and dry fuels, which have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over parts of the Central Rockies on Wednesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest this
week. Moderate to major heat impacts are possible in areas near San
Francisco, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Extreme Heat Risk impacts are
forecast in Phoenix. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in
the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors or in a building without
cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government websites
for information on cooling centers.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

01 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Sharply Lower Sea-Sawed More Or Less Sideways, Finally Closed Moderately Down In The Red

October 1, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 173 points or 0.41%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.53%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.93%,
  • Gold $2,680 up $20.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $2.21,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.739 down 0.063 points,
  • USD index $101.20 up $0.42,
  • Bitcoin $62,041 down $1,845 or 2.91%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday after Iran fired over 100 ballistic missiles at Israel. Oil prices saw their biggest increases in nearly a year. West Texas Intermediate crude rose over 3% to above $70 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed about 3% to around $74 per barrel. New economic data showed job openings unexpectedly increased in August, while US manufacturing held steady in September, though still in contraction territory. Investors are looking ahead to Friday’s September jobs report for further clues on the economy and Federal Reserve policy. A dockworkers’ strike began on the East and Gulf coasts, threatening to disrupt shipping and potentially impact the economy.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during August 2024 was 4.1% above August 2023 (2.8% inflation-adjusted)- down from 5.3% the previous month. Spending on private construction was up 3.1% year-over-year (down from 4.2% the previous month). Public construction spending was up 7.8% year-over-year (down from 9.0% the previous month). The bottom line is that construction growth is moderating which is not good news for one of the bright spots in the economy.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent in September 2024 – unchanged from August. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 44.6 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (49.8 percent) is 5 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 44.8 percent. The Prices Index went into contraction (or ‘decreasing’) territory for the first time this year, registering 48.3 percent, down 5.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 54 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the 43.6 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 43.9 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from August’s figure of 46 percent. The bottom line is that manufacturing continues to be in a recession.

The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August but is down 14.5% year-over-year. What pundits watch is a correlation between job openings and total employment – and this correlation indicates a further slowing of job growth in the coming months. I see no forces at play which suggest a strengthening employment growth.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Falling Energy Prices Drive Eurozone Inflation Below 2% Goal
  • Is a New Nuclear Arms Race Inevitable?
  • Oil Prices Spike As Iran Sends Volley of 100+ Ballistic Missiles Into Israel
  • U.S. Port Strike Could Trigger New Wave of Inflation
  • Oil Trader Gunvor Doesn’t Expect Middle East Conflict to Restrict Supply
  • U.S. Administration Buys 6 Million Barrels of Crude for SPR
  • Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general
  • S&P 500 falls, Nasdaq drops 1% to start October as Middle East tensions intensify: Live updates
  • Where the charts indicate gold is headed next as it rallies on escalating geopolitical tensions
  • Robinhood announces crypto transfers for European customers: CNBC Crypto World
  • Tesla Prevails In Lawsuit Alleging Autopilot Fraud
  • The “Everything Market” Could Last A While Longer
  • Why was the stock market down today? It wasn’t just about Iran.
  • 10-year Treasury yield ends at lowest in a week as Iran launches retaliatory strikes on Israel

Click on the “Read More”

NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Forecast for October 2024 on September 30, 2024 and this article was posted on October 1, 2024

October 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

 

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for  October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (OND) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and the previously issued three-month outlook for OND 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on September 19, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for October.  One expects some changes  11 days later. However, the changes to the updated October Outlook are fairly significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (September 19, 2024) three-month OND temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes August the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that November and December will be very different than October. You can subtract October from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined November/December Outlook.

However given the major change in the new Outlook outlook from what was issued on September 19,  2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on September 19, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change is consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2024

October 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 01 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off the
Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and upper-level
energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Florida
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On Tuesday, the front
will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and by Tuesday
afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee Valley. Light rain moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians by Wednesday and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
evening. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida from Tuesday into Thursday.

Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated with down-sloping
air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of the North High Plains on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will produce scattered
showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest.
Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People
spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an
increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat
and check local media and government websites for cooling center
information.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.