American “free press” is a lie because it practically does not exist in America!
Specifically, the rich control the press, not only the traditional media (e.g., newspapers and TV), but also the social media (e.g., Facebook and Twitter). The press, in turn, serves the rich, including both the commercial and political establishments!
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Headline total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October 2022, and the headline unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. However, there is little correlation between the household and establishment surveys this month with the household survey showing a DECLINE of employment of 328,000 vs the headline establishment survey showing a gain of 261,000. Interestingly, the household survey also shows the labor force declined by 22,000 and the number of unemployed rising 306,000 from the previous month – all this leading to the increase in the headline unemployment rate to 3.7% from 3.5%. These two surveys which comprise the BLS employment report are so different that I would not rely on much analysis of this data. The employment growth has been relatively strong but has a general bias towards moderation of employment gains (see graph below).
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Moderate to heavy mountain snow moving across the central Rockies today into early Friday... ...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern Plains on Friday ahead of and along a potent cold front... ...Above-average temperatures across northern Plains and Midwest today; spreading eastward this weekend... ...Atmospheric River will bring widespread rain and high-elevation snow across the Pacific Northwest...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate again and potentially offered some relief from future federal fund rate increases: “…the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments…”. Powell in the press conference later threw cold water on relief saying “We have some ways to go.” The graph below shows answers your questions – showing historically that the federal funds rate usually has to rise higher than the CPI to affect the inflation rate.
According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, small business owners continue to struggle with labor issues as 23% of owners report labor quality as their top business problem, second to inflation. Ten percent of owners report labor cost as their top business problem, a historically high reading. “The labor shortage remains a challenging problem for small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Because of staffing shortages, small business owners are less able to take full advantage of current sales opportunities and continue to make business adjustments to compensate.”
U.S.-based employers announced 33,843 job cuts in October a 13% increase from the 29,989 cuts in September. It is 48% higher than the 22,822 cuts announced in the same month last year.
In the week ending October 29, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The labor market continues strong.
Non-farm business productivity has declined 1.4% year-over-year whilst labor costs have increased 6.1% year-over-year. Not good news for exports.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in September, up $7.6 billion from $65.7 billion in August, revised. Exports declined 1.1% month-over-month whilst imports increased 1.5%. Most of the decline in exports came from food and the increase in imports came from capital goods.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Heavy snow today along the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and portions of the northern Rockies... ...Heavy mountain snow moving into the central Rockies on Thursday into early Friday... ...Showers and severe thunderstorms possible ahead of and along cold front tomorrow into Friday for southern Plains... ...Record high temperatures today across northern Plains and Midwest; fire weather possible due to dry and breezy conditions ...Atmospheric River will dump rain and elevated snow to parts of Pacific Northwest through Friday evening...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
According to ADP’s Employment Report, employers created 239,000 jobs in October, up from a revised 192,000 in September as restaurants, retailers and the travel sector ramped up hiring in advance of the year-end holidays. This continues to show employment is strong.
The Federal Reserve (FOMC) as expected raised the federal funds rate 75 basis points (3/4%) to the range of 3-3/4 to 4%, and stated in part:
The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
The bold sentence in the FOMC statement is what many consider as intent to reduce the federal funds rate increases in the future as there is a lag between raising the funds rate and its impact on inflation.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Heavy snow today along the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and portions of the northern Rockies... ...Heavy mountain snow moving into the central Rockies possibly spreading into the central/northern High Plains on Thursday into early Friday... ...Much colder across the western U.S. but very warm today across much of the northern/central Plains...
In his 1989 article (The End of History?), Francis Fukuyama triumphally raised the possibility that western liberal democracy could possibly be the permanent winner of human evolution, thus ending history.
What an idiotic proposition!
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
US Home Prices Drop by 0.5% From August to September 2022. Home prices were up by 11.4% from September 2021, the fifth consecutive month of lower year-over-year growth.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in October 2022, with the overall economy achieving a 29th consecutive month of growth. The October Manufacturing PMI registered 50.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the 50.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders sub-index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in September. Index values below 50 represent contraction. This index is saying the manufacturing portion of the economy is flat.
The number of job openings increased to 10.7 million on the last business day of September 2022. The number of hires edged down to 6.1 million, while total separations decreased to 5.7 million. This data is showing the employment end of the economy is healthy.
Non-inflation adjusted construction spending during September 2022 was up 0.2% month-over-month and 10.9% year-over-year. Private Construction Spending on private construction was up 0.4% month-over-month. Residential construction was unchanged month-over-month. Nonresidential construction was up 1.0% month-over-month. Public Construction was down 0.4% month-over-month. When you inflation adjust construction spending, it is down 9.9% year-over-year. This sector is deep in recession.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is November. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for November and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.
Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for November. There will be some improvement in the Great Plains but it will be dry to the east inducing drought conditions.
We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.
