NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Forecast for October 2024 on September 30, 2024 and this article was posted on October 1, 2024

October 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

 

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for  October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (OND) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and the previously issued three-month outlook for OND 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on September 19, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for October.  One expects some changes  11 days later. However, the changes to the updated October Outlook are fairly significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (September 19, 2024) three-month OND temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes August the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that November and December will be very different than October. You can subtract October from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined November/December Outlook.

However given the major change in the new Outlook outlook from what was issued on September 19,  2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on September 19, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change is consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2024

October 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 01 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off the
Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and upper-level
energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Florida
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On Tuesday, the front
will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and by Tuesday
afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee Valley. Light rain moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians by Wednesday and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
evening. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida from Tuesday into Thursday.

Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated with down-sloping
air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of the North High Plains on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will produce scattered
showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest.
Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People
spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an
increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat
and check local media and government websites for cooling center
information.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

30 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Three Major Indexes Opened Sharply Lower, Then Trended Even Lower After J Pow Made Negative Remarks Regarding Future Interest Cuts, Finally Closing In The Green

September 30, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 17 points or 0.04%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.38%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.42%,
  • Gold $2,653 down $15.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $68 up $0.11,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.789 up 0.004 points,
  • USD index $100.77 up $0.39,
  • Bitcoin $63,306 down $2,339 or 3.56%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all closed September 2024 at new record highs. September, typically a challenging month for stocks, ended with gains across major indexes. The S&P 500 had its best year-to-date performance at September’s end since 1997. It was the best quarter for the S&P 500 since Q4 2021. Factors Driving Performance was the Federal Reserve’s large interest rate cut boosted investor confidence and signs of resilience in the US economy helped lift stocks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on maintaining economic strength while signaling a cautious approach to future rate cuts were well-received. Looking Ahead, Investors are anticipating the September jobs report, due on Friday, as an important indicator of the market’s direction.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Business Barometer rose slightly by 0.5 points to 46.6 in September 2024.  The Barometer has now been in a tight range between 45.3-47.4 for four consecutive months. The marginal rise was due to two of the five subcomponents improving significantly: Order Backlogs and Employment.  Meanwhile, reductions in Supplier Deliveries, New Orders and Production restricted the upward move.   This index is important to pundits as they believe it is a window into the ISM Manufacturing Index which will be released tomorrow. I see manufacturing in a recession.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing index fell modestly in September 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped to -3.2, with the negative reading signaling a slight decline in output from August. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated declines this month. The new orders index was largely unchanged at -5.2. The capacity utilization index fell five points to -7.0, and the shipments index retreated back into negative territory, falling eight points to -7.0. Anyway you cut it, manufacturing remains in a recession.

Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech to the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville, Tennessee, emphasizing the Fed’s commitment to maintaining economic stability. Powell described the U.S. economy as being in “solid shape” and expressed the Fed’s intention to use its tools to preserve this condition. Powell indicated that if the economy progresses as anticipated, the Fed would gradually reduce interest rates towards a more neutral position. However, he stressed that the central bank is not following a predetermined course, with decisions being made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The Fed recently implemented a 50 basis point rate cut, which Powell attributed to increased confidence in the Fed’s ability to maintain a robust job market and economy while inflation continues to decline. While some investors had been anticipating another significant rate cut in the near future, Powell’s remarks appeared to temper these expectations. Powell expressed growing confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the Fed’s 2% target. He also noted that the job market remains solid, with low layoff rates and an unemployment rate within the full employment range. During the Q&A session, Powell emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee is not inclined to cut rates hastily. This cautious stance aligns with the Fed’s goal of balancing economic growth with price stability.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • How Sustainable Are Big Oil Dividends?
  • Lithium-Ion Battery Prices Plummet
  • The Future of Gold: Will the Price Surge Continue?
  • US Gasoline Prices Rise for 2nd Week in a Row
  • Goldman Sachs Highlights Oil Market’s Vulnerability to Geopolitical Risks
  • Analysts Cut Oil Price Forecasts for Fifth Month in a Row
  • Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts, insists the Fed is ‘not on any preset course’
  • S&P 500 posts record close on Monday to cap winning month and quarter: Live updates
  • East Coast port strike: Truckers, rails scramble to move billions in cargo before ILA union midnight shutdown
  • Bitcoin on pace for strongest September ever as investors weigh economic outlook: CNBC Crypto World
  • Why the Fed’s rate cut won’t immediately help car buyers or sales
  • Powell says U.S. economy is in ‘solid shape’ and the Fed intends to keep it that way

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

September 30, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved over a downwardly revised September forecast and continues in negative territory. Inflation overall remains unchanged compared to last month – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 30, 2024

September 30, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 30 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Monday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Monday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians will slowly
weaken and move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday, with the energy
moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday evening. A rich pool of
moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then
the Mid-Atlantic will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy
rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall ends. Rain
and showers will continue over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
night.

Meanwhile, a dry front extending from the Northern Plains to the Central
High Plains/Central Rockies will move to the Lower Upper Great Lakes
southwestward to the Southern Plains by Wednesday. On Tuesday, the front
will intersect moisture over the Upper Midwest, producing light rain over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes. By Tuesday afternoon, rain will expand
along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Light
rain will move into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by
Wednesday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of Florida from Monday into Wednesday.

Ahead of the front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to
the Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level
ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over the North/Central Plains on Monday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 29, 2024

September 29, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Sunday and Monday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest…

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley will slowly weaken and move
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday. A rich pool of moisture extends
from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then the Mid-Atlantic
will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy rain over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues, however, over a
slightly smaller area. Once again, the moisture and upper-level energy
will aid in producing heavy rain over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a dry front will move from the Northern Rockies to the Upper
Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Ahead of the
front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to the
Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level
ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over the North/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday.
The front will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southeastern California and the Southwest that will
range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The
temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of
Southeastern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

U.S. Agriculture News – Published September 28, 2024

September 28, 2024Posted inagricultureNo Comments

We recently reported on World Agriculture Production and our report can be accessed HERE.

That report included the U.S. but here we focus on the  U.S.

This is a simple table but you can see that the index of prices received were higher in August 2024 than July 2024  or August 2023.  Similarly, the index of prices paid by farmers and ranchers was lower in August of 2024 so presumably, profit increased.

Some will have to click on “Read More” to access the full article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 28, 2024

September 28, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 28 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 28 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024

…HELENE is forecast to continue to weaken and dissipate by Monday…

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday and over the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Sunday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest…

HELENE is forecast to continue to weaken and dissipate by Monday. The
system will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized
areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with
heavy rain.

On Sunday, the area of moderate to heavy rain will move eastward to the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Sunday through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition,
there will be a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Florida Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday.

Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will move
northeastward into West-Central Canada by Sunday while the trailing front
moves into the Northern Plains. The system is expected to produce little
precipitation along the boundary.

Moreover, an upper-level high will remain over the Four Corners Region
through Monday. High temperatures over Southeastern California and the
Southwest will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat
overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over
parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

 

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

27 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Three Major Indexes Opened Sharply Higher With The Dow Recording A New Historic High, Closing In The Green While The Small Caps Closed Moderately Below The Unchanged Line

September 27, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 138 points or 0.33%, (Closed at 42,313, New Historic high 42,628)
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.39%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.13%,
  • Gold $2,674 down $20.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.92,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.754 down 0.035 points,
  • USD index $100.42 down $0.10,
  • Bitcoin $65,672 up $581 or 0.89%,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 587 Canada +7 to 218

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The major stock indexes traded mixed on Friday but closed the week on a positive note. The mixed performance on Friday came as investors reacted to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. This inflation data boosted expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, with over 50% of traders now anticipating a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting. Despite Friday’s mixed trading, all three major indexes recorded gains for the week, buoyed by renewed economic confidence. A strong GDP report and moderating inflation have increased belief that the Fed can achieve a “soft landing” while beginning to cut interest rates. The PCE report showed continued easing of price pressures, supporting expectations for Fed rate cuts. Additional stimulus measures from China provided further support to markets. Chip stocks closed lower on Friday, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index dropping 1.8%, though it remained up 4.3% for the week.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In August 2024, Real (inflation-adjusted) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased from 2.8% to 2.9%. Real Disposable Personal Income decreased from 3.2% to 3.1%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August 2024 increased 2.2% – down from 2.5% the previous month. Prices for goods decreased 0.9 percent and prices for services increased 3.7 percent. Food prices increased 1.1 percent and energy prices decreased 5.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent from one year ago – up from 2.6% the previous month. The bottom line is that in reality there was no change in income or expenditures – so the projection of no change going forward suggests no change in economic growth in the months ahead. And if one only looks at the PCE price index for inflation one would think we are making progress. But the reality is that the Federal Reserve looks at PCE less food and energy – and that actually increased.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Drilling Sags: Baker Hughes
  • Oil Jumps as Middle East Tensions Ignite Supply Fears
  • WTI Houston Crude Prices Gain Prominence as U.S. Oil Exports Jump
  • India Says It Won’t Buy LNG From Russia’s Sanctioned Arctic Project
  • Dow jumps 100 points to close at a record, major averages extend rally to third week: Live updates
  • Wall Street braces for a turbulent October with jobs report on deck next week
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Wynn Resorts, Rocket Lab USA, Cassava Sciences and more
  • Mystery Of Upward GDP Revision Solved: You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet
  • Former ‘Apprentice’ contestant reduces their stake in Trump Media & Technology

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.