We hear much about the cancellation of student debt. While a worthy effort, not much thought has been given to its implications. And I do not mean economic implications alone. Let us start with a brief examination of a few social implications.
Is Global Warming impacting the ENSO Cycle? A friend of mine posted an interesting post on this on Climate.Gov and I think it is worth discussing. But we really do not have the ability at this point in time to know if this is happening and if so why.
This introduces the ENSO BLOG post on Climate.gov. Here is the link to the full post.
He provides two pieces of evidence. This is the one that resonated with me.
| Presumably, we see higher highs (El Nino) and lower lows (La Nina) since 1960. We do not seem to see higher highs and higher lows which one might expect with warmer oceans but all the values are anomalies that complicate things a lot. Actually, I am not 100% sure of exactly what this data represents. Presumably, it is the 5-month running mean minus the 1981- 2010 climatology. That is slightly different than the usual calculation of the value of the Nino 3.4 Index but it is challenging to compare current values to historical values as the temperature of the ocean surface increases. I will copy Mike McPhaden and ask him if I have described the above correctly – stay tuned. Trying to understand the impact of Global Warming is not simple. |
The Footnotes to the post provide useful information
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 05 2023Valid 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 07 2023
…Dangerous heat will continue for the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley but relief for some is coming beginning on
Sunday……Potential for severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding from the
central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July 2023, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%. The employment gains show a continued cooling of the jobs sector – but still not bad. The household survey shows employment gains of 268,000 against the establishment survey’s 187,000. Health care growth accounted for nearly half of the gains. The leisure and hospitality sector has really cooled off and shows only 17,000 gains.
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 04 2023Valid 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 06 2023
…Persistent heat will continue to affect the Desert Southwest, Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley into the weekend……Elevated potential for flash flooding across the Northern High Plains
today, expanding eastward through the Dakotas into Minnesota for
Saturday……Stormy conditions expected for portions of the central to southeastern
U.S. through Saturday…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
U.S.-based employers announced 23,697 job cuts in July 2023 a 42% decrease from the 40,709 cuts announced one month prior. It is 8% lower than the 25,810 cuts announced in the same month last year, and marks the first time this year cuts were lower than the corresponding month one year earlier.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023 – an improvement from the previous quarter’s -0.6% year-over-year. Unit labor costs increased 2.4% in the same period which is a slowing from the previous period.
New orders for manufactured goods in June 2023 decreased 0.2% year-over-year (but UP 6.1% inflation-adjusted – red line on the graph below). The Federal Reserve’s industrial production manufacturing is down 0.3% year-over-year.
In the week ending July 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 228,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 233,750.
In July 2023, the ISM Services PMI® registered 52.7%, 1.2 percentage points lower than June’s reading of 53.9 percent. The Business Activity sub-index registered 57.1 percent, a 2.1 percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 59.2 percent in June. The New Orders sub-index was 55% and is 0.5 percentage points lower than the June reading of 55.5%. These numbers represent a weak growth service sector.
Forty-two percent of small business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 23%, down one point from June. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem to owners increased by two points to 10%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:
The small business economy continues to struggle with the current job market, with owners working hard to fill open positions. Hiring plans are trending down but are still historically strong in the face of a weakening economy.
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 03 2023Valid 12Z Thu Aug 03 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valleys, Southeast and Southern
Appalachians, along with two areas over the Northern/Central Plains into
the Great Basin……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Private employers added 324,000 jobs in July according to ADP (blue line on graph below). Job creation remained robust in July, with leisure and hospitality again driving growth. One weakness was manufacturing, an interest rate-sensitive industry that shed jobs for the fifth straight month. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP stated:
The economy is doing better than expected and a healthy labor market continues to support household spending. We continue to see a slowdown in pay growth without broad-based job loss.
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 12Z Wed Aug 02 2023 - 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southern Appalachians, along with two areas over the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and the Central High Plains on Thursday... ...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The number of job openings was little changed at 9.6 million on the last business day of June 2023. As the number of job openings roughly correlates to employment gains, one would expect a continued modest slowing of employment gains in July 2023.
Construction spending during June 2023 increased 3.5% year-over-year (red line on the graph below) – down 6.2% year-over-year inflation-adjusted (blue line on the graph below). Construction is on an improving trend line.
The July 2023 Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. This figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. Manufacturing remains in a recession.
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