August 14, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus a Review of State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

August 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Northern Tier from Great Lakes West Predicted to be Hot and Dry

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are publishing this article on Sunday we only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that.

We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for July and Year to Date (YTD). It is not a surprise that they differ. We provided that information in a recent article but thought it useful to repeat it here for those who did not happen to read the other article. There is value in relating the future outlook to the prior month and to the YTD.

August 14, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across much of the
Southwest/Intermountain West, as well as across south Texas...

...Much above normal temperatures likely this weekend across the central
Plains, with a warming trend for parts of the West...

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on August 11, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon (my opinion)

August 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction.  From Emily Beckers’s post

If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.

August 13, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal moisture to increase the threat for localized heavy rainfall
and flash flooding across parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West...

...Tropical moisture likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of south
Texas this weekend...

...Much above normal temperatures expected from the northern High Plains
to the central Plains...

August 12, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for
portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies...

...Showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rainfall expected along the
immediate Gulf Coast through the early weekend...

...Below-average temperatures and drier air behind an advancing cold front
will lead to a comfortable weekend in the Eastern region...

Drought Update August 11, 2022: Marginal Temporary Improvement

August 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is a good time to look at how the drought situation in the Continental U.S. has changed over the last couple of months. There is a big debate as to whether the increased precipitation in June and July really changed the situation or was simply a drop in the bucket and I am tending to agree with the “drop in the bucket” assessment.  Keep on reading to find out why I have drawn that conclusion.

August 11, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy rain and flash flooding threat continues from the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic and along the Gulf Coast...

...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for
portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies...

...Above-normal temperatures are expected from the northern Intermountain
West into the northern and central Plains, while much of the East begins
to cool down through late in the week...

August 10, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Hot weather to continue from the Northwest into the Plains, some relief
by Wednesday for the Northeast...

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threat from the Ohio Valley into the
Central Appalachians...

...Monsoonal Showers to continue from the Southwest, portions of
California and into the Great Basin...

August 9, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

August 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heat to continue from the Northwest into the Plains, some relief by
Wednesday for the Northeast...

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threat from the Ohio Valley into the
Central Appalachians...

...Monsoonal Showers to continue from the Southwest, portions of
California and into the Great Basin...

August 8, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

August 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England and Central/Southern Rockies from Monday into Tuesday morning...

...Dangerous heat across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Middle
Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Northeast Coast...