September 8, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Kay to begin entering
southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest on Friday...

...Dangerous heat continues throughout central and northern California
through the end of the week, with well above average temperatures building
into the Pacific Northwest by the weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions forecast throughout portions of the
Intermountain West and Central Plains...

...Unsettled weather and flash flood chances forecast over parts of the
Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast...

September 7, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 7, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Over 50 million residents are under either Excessive Heat Warnings or
Heat Advisories across the western third of the Lower 48...

...Critical fire weather over parts of the northern High Plains on
Wednesday...

...Unsettled weather and scattered flash flood chances linger over the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast; Watching Hurricane Kay for potential impacts
in the Southwest late week...

September 6, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern
Appalachians and Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of Southern New
England/Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the Central Appalachians from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of California and
Southwest into parts of the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain
Region...

...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Northern High Plains...

September 5, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the
Northeast to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southern Appalachians and a small
area over the southern tip of Texas from Monday, Labor Day, into Tuesday
morning...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of California,
Southwest, into parts of the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain
Region...

...Critical to Elevated fire weather over parts of the West to Northern
High Plains...

September 4, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over multiple locations
from parts of Northeast/Lower Great Lakes to the Western Gulf Coast
through Monday morning, Labor Day...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of the West
Coast...

...Critical to Elevated fire weather over parts of the Northwest to
Northern High Plains...

September 2, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 7 pm Saturday, September 3, 2022 to include a comparison with the Monthly Outlook Issued on August 31, 2022

Southern Tier to be wet; the Northwest starts warm but the warm anomaly rapidly moves to the East with the Northwest experiencing some cold air intrusion.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays in which for a subset of the information we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.  This is important because it appears that changes are happening and the current view of the next 28 days differs substantially from the Monthly Outlook issued just a few days ago.

September 2, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Prolonged and potentially dangerous heat wave continues to expand
across much of the West...

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms, including a Slight Risk for flash
flooding, forecast from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Cold front to bring fall-like temperatures to the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes..



















	




	
	

		NOAA Updates their September 2022 Outlook on August 31, 2022	





		
			
		
		September 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Wildland Fire Risk Maps updated at 10:04 pm EDT on September 1, 2022


Short-term improvement in drought for September.  It is more than previously forecast.


At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Outlook for the following month which in this case is September. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight.


There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for September and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.


Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for September. It is again a big improvement but unfortunately, it probably is a one-month event. We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also included a Monsoon Update.



















	




	
	

		September 1, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		September 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
southwestern Texas through Friday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast and Central Plains through Thursday morning...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of the West
Coast...




















	




	
	

		August 31, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 31, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains through Wednesday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Wednesday morning...

...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over the West Coast...