September 25, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Cool and unsettled weather expected across the Northeast and Great
Lakes over the next few days...

...Well above average temperatures forecast throughout the West, with
excessive heat impacting parts of southern California...

...Isolated flash flood concerns for portions of central and southern
Florida through Monday before hazardous conditions associated with
Tropical Storm Ian approach southern Florida on Tuesday...

September 24, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Recent record heat coming to an end across the Central/Southern Plains
into the Lower Mississippi...

...Below average temperatures to spread from the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, while much above average temperatures spread across the West...

...Rains from Ian to push northward into South Florida on Monday...

September 23, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 24, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Updated slightly at 2 pm EDT on September 24, 2022

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the weather outlook maps issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4, it is very important. It covers half of the 28-day period and the discussion released with this map is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

That is why we issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader.  This provides a 28-day view of the future. We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

As a bonus this Friday, we have included a look back at August 2022 this time on a worldwide basis. We covered precipitation but the major focus was on how August 2022 temperature fits into the modern record of yearly temperature. It is one way of looking at Global Warming(GW). Recently we reviewed August in regards to the U.S. Lower 48 States.

September 22, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall/flash flooding continue across
parts of the Four Corners states into Thursday along with potential severe
weather through this evening...

...Showers and storms that could be severe will move across the Northeast
through tonight and into tomorrow...

...Record-breaking warmth will continue across the south-central U.S. into
Friday...

September 21, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Scattered to numerous flash floods likely through at least Thursday
across parts of the Southwest, central Great Basin, and central Rockies...

...Severe thunderstorms possible from northern Utah to southern Idaho and
over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday...

...Record breaking heat to become less widespread throughout the
south-central United States on Wednesday and confine to the Deep South on
Thursday...

September 20, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking heat anticipated over the Central and Southern U.S
through midweek; strong Canadian cold front to bring relief over the
Plains...

...Increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage over the Pacific Northwest
and Four Corners Region could cause isolated-scattered flash flooding...

September 19, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4 pm EDT September 19, 2022 with respect to Hurricane Fiona and the Day 1 and Day 2 CONUS forecasts

The heat is moving from west to east. It is fairly dry and that also is tending to move from west to east also. It is almost an Autumn pattern.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. In some weeks the 28-Outlook is published a day or two late because there are other articles to publish and we want each to be featured on the Econcurrents.com website for a while. So we can end up with a 27-day or 26-day outlook. But the other maps usually are up to date at the time of publishing.

The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season Forecast based on September 1, 2022 ENSO Conditions

September 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a rapid onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I am going to first show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and then by season. I will also show two of the indices they use in their model. One of those indices relates to the Indian Ocean Dipole which will also be discussed.

September 18, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EDT September 18, 2022  to provide updated information on Hurricane Fiona

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Rain and below-normal temperatures are expected across portions of
California and the Pacific Northwest into next week...

...Well-above normal to record-breaking temperatures are forecast for
portions of the central to southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley
next week...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected for parts of the
Midwest today and tomorrow...

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter

September 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.