October 23, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...A robust low pressure system is bringing the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the northern and central Rockies into 
the northern High Plains...

...Severe weather is possible tonight over the eastern portion of the
northern to central Plains...

...Another low pressure system will bring a quick round of heavy rain,
strong to severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. Monday and
Tuesday...

October 22, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...A robust low pressure system will bring the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the Cascades, northern and central
Rockies as well as the northern High Plains through the weekend into
Monday...

...Much colder air will surge across the western U.S. while much above
normal temperatures surge north into the upper Midwest and the Great
Lakes...

...Fire weather risk is critical over parts of the central Plains...

October 21, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on October 20, 2022 – Yet Another La Nina Winter

Preparing to say goodbye to La Nina early in 2023. Now it looks like La Nina will remain until Spring.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of November plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.

I will be writing a subsequent article on the challenges to the Agriculture Sector in certain parts of CONUS.

October 20, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Above normal warmth in the Central U.S. through this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions for Montana and Wyoming...

...Increasing precipitation chances and decreasing temperatures in the
West this weekend...

October 19, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking cold will continue through Thursday morning in the
Southeast...

...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the
Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley...

...Dry weather will lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions
for the Central and Northern Plains and the Lower Ohio River Valley
through Thursday...

October 18, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Widespread record-breaking cold early Wednesday morning across the
Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians and
Southeast...

...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect for the Southern Plains,
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic...

...Scattered Flash Flooding possible for portions of Maine through
tonight...

October 17, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Widespread record tying/breaking morning lows will bring first freeze
of the season to portions of the Midwest and South...

...Wintry precipitation continues for the Great Lakes Region...

...Heavy rain forecast for Maine on Tuesday, with scattered instances of
flash flooding possible...

October 16, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Flash flooding concerns for southern Texas today then Maine on
Tuesday...

...Unsettled and windy weather will spread from the Great Lakes to New
England over next couple of days...

...Cold air sweeps through eastern half of the country while record warmth
continues across Northwest...

NOAA Updates it’s October 2022 ENSO Outlook

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat now looks to be a certainty. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps February or March.

But I actually see no sign of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong?

I also include some interesting graphics that show the impact of the combination of La Nina and what NOAA calls “trend” which is a combination of Global Warming and long cycles.  I find them interesting. The IOD is about over so the weather in the  Indian Ocean should return to something more like normal. The three phases of ENSO basically impact the entire world. It does appear that this third La Nina winter may be quite different from last year. But I will address that when NOAA issues their Seasonal Outlook for the U.S. and when I publish the JAMSTEC world outlook which I already have and I will probably publish it very soon.