November 4, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

November 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Part II was updated at 6:05 p.m. EST on November 6 2022 to reflect the updated Sunday and Monday forecast. We will do another update later and then publish a new 48-hour report tonight.

Cold plus moisture means snow for the Northwest

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

The key dynamic is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. Combined with the ongoing atmospheric river we end up with a wet and snowy Northwest. The intensity and extent of this pattern vary through the month as does the level of confidence in the strength of the pattern. Drought intensifies in other parts of the U.S.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

November 3, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

November 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate to heavy mountain snow moving across the central Rockies today
into early Friday...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern Plains on Friday ahead
of and along a potent cold front...

...Above-average temperatures across northern Plains and Midwest today;
spreading eastward this weekend...

...Atmospheric River will bring widespread rain and high-elevation snow
across the Pacific Northwest...

November 2, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

November 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy snow today along the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and portions of the
northern Rockies...

...Heavy mountain snow moving into the central Rockies on Thursday into
early Friday...

...Showers and severe thunderstorms possible ahead of and along cold front
tomorrow into Friday for southern Plains...

...Record high temperatures today across northern Plains and Midwest; fire
weather possible due to dry and breezy conditions

...Atmospheric River will dump rain and elevated snow to parts of Pacific
Northwest through Friday evening...

November 1, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

November 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

      Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this morning’s (Tuesday) NWS Forecast.

...Heavy snow today along the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and portions of the
northern Rockies...

...Heavy mountain snow moving into the central Rockies possibly spreading
into the central/northern High Plains on Thursday into early Friday...

...Much colder across the western U.S. but very warm today across much of
the northern/central Plains...

NOAA Updates their November 2022 Outlook on October 31, 2022 – Significant Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook

November 1, 2022Posted inweather3 Comments

Drought and Heat Shift to the East

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is November. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for November and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.

Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for November. There will be some improvement in the Great Plains but it will be dry to the east inducing drought conditions.

We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

October 31, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

November 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this morning’s (Tuesday) NWS Forecast.

...Much needed precipitation to spread southward through California Monday
night into Wednesday...

...Heavy mountain snows expected across portions of the northern Rockies,
Oregon Cascades and northern to central Sierra followed by the central
Rockies...

...A big cool down for areas west of the Rockies, while much above average
temperatures persist to the east of the Rockies all the way to the East
Coast...

...Fire weather threats increase Tuesday into Wednesday across the
northern and central High Plains...

October 30, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 31, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

  Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Unsettled weather will spread across the Eastern U.S. through Tuesday...

...Widespread rain and high elevation snow expected across the Pacific
Northwest and Northern/Central Rockies through mid-week...

...Cooler temperatures will arrive in the West by mid-week while the
Central U.S. warms...

JAMSTEC two Season Forecast plus our US-48 Hour Forecast October 29, 2022

October 30, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a possible onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I should have presented this information when I received it two weeks ago. The JAMSTEC forecasts are based on their model runs of October 1, 2022.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

October 28, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

October 27, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 28, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Severe thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding possible across parts
of the southern Plains tonight and southeast Texas on Friday...

...Approaching frontal boundary to spread rain and high elevation snow
chances throughout the Pacific Northwest...