Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 18, 2023

Updated at 5:15 p.m. EDT Wed May 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 25 2023 – 00Z Sat May 27 2023

…Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern High Plains this
evening…

…Isolated to scattered locally heavy rain and thunderstorms to impact
parts of the Southeast, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and much of the
High Plains over the next few days…

…Well above average temperatures confined to the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the end of the week, while much cooler temperatures
push into the Great Lakes and Northeast…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 17, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1228 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 18 2023 – 00Z Sat May 20 2023

…Above-normal temperatures continue in the West…

…An elevated risk of Flash Flooding exists over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains on Thursday night…

…A late spring freeze is possible over portions of the Northeast
tonight…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 16, 2023

Updated at 3:40 p.m. EDT Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

Valid 00Z Wed May 17 2023 – 00Z Fri May 19 2023

…Heavy rainfall, flooding and severe weather are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley this evening…

…Above-normal temperatures continue in the West…

…Cooler, drier air across Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast through
midweek in wake of potent cold front…

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – May 15, 2023

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“Observation shows that the La Niña Modoki-like state persists. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in June. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.” [This puts JAMSTEC in disagreement with NOAA and most other Meteorological Agencies]

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 15, 2023

Updated at 4:56 p.m. EDT Monday, May 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 00Z Tue May 16 2023 – 00Z Thu May 18 2023

…Above-normal temperatures to persist in the West….

…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible from the Southern Plains to
the Southeast…

…Heavy rainfall for parts of the Northwest & Southwest; much cooler
temperatures arrive in the Northeast mid-week…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 14, 2023

Updated at 4:08 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 15 2023 – 00Z Wed May 17 2023

…Above-normal temperatures to spread from the western into the central
U.S. early this week…

…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of the southern
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley into Monday…

…Heavy rainfall threat moving east into the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Tuesday…

Review of the World’s Weather in April of 2023 – May 13, 2023

Every month the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information and other NOAA entities review the weather for the World in the prior Month. There is a long detailed report and I receive a summary of that report. In this article I am going to present two slides from the full report and then the email I received in its entirety.

Certainly, the Global ocean temperature setting a record for April is pretty significant. The combined land and ocean temperature being the fourth highest, to me is not a surprise at all as the first graphic in the body of the article suggests.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 13, 2023

Updated at 6:10 p.m. Saturday, May 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 14 2023 – 00Z Tue May 16 2023

…Much above-average temperatures expected to continue across the western
U.S., including record-breaking heat over portions of the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday...

…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of Texas and
Oklahoma into early next week…

…Severe storms expected for parts of the mid Mississippi Valley into
Saturday evening…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on May 11, 2023 – El Nino now 90% Likely

Lightly Edited at 9:39 p.m. Saturday, May 12, 2023 to add some details that I was too exhausted to sort out when I published early this morning.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

There is not much doubt that we will have an El Nino.

From the NOAA Analysis:

The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon.  While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to  1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to 1.5°C).  It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance).

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 12, 2023

Updated at 8:55 p.m. EDT Friday, May 12, 2013

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 00Z Sat May 13 2023 – 00Z Mon May 15 2023

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather likely across large
portions of the Plains…

…Much above average to record heat building across the Pacific
Northwest, while below average temperatures expected across large portions
of the Plains…