NOAA Updates It’s April 2023 Outlook on March 31, 2023

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is April of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for April and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for April for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

  • The updated April temperature outlook indicates an expansion of enhanced probabilities for below normal temperatures for the western and north-central contiguous U.S. (CONUS)
  • The updated April temperature outlook shows a reduction in the probabilities favoring above normal temperatures for parts of the Southwest, while continuing to indicate likely above normal temperatures for the Southern Plains, the Central and Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic region.
  • The updated April precipitation outlook indicates an increased probability of above normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest
  • The area of enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation over parts of the Southwest has decreased in the updated April Outlook
  • The updated April precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above normal precipitation from East Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as for eastern areas of the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes region, and western New York state
  • The April precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation for northwestern Alaska into parts of the Alaska interior and below normal precipitation for the Alaska Peninsula and the southwestern coast

The article includes the Drought Outlook for April. We have also included the current fire incidents (starting to increase) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date snowpack in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April1, 2023

Updated at 9:34 p.m. Saturday April 1, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 04 2023

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic…

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades and Northern Central Rockies…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 31, 2023

Updated at 5:18 p.m. March 31, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 01 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 03 2023

…A major severe weather outbreak is forecast to continue into tonight
across portions of the Mississippi Valley…

…Winter Storm with Blizzard conditions from Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes tonight…

…Heavy snow across northwestern mountains…

…Critical Fire Weather persists over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains for the next several days…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 30, 2023

Updated at 4:29 p.m. EDT Thursday, March 30, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023

…A major early spring storm to bring multiple hazardous impacts across
large sections of the Lower 48…

…Heavy snow and significant ice accumulations likely across portions of
the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great
Lakes…

…Severe weather threat through the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley…

…Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley…

…Critical Fire Weather threat, high winds and blowing sand likely across
the Southern High Plains…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 29 2023Valid 12Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 31 2023

…Storm system brings more heavy rainfall/mountain snow to the West with
cooling temperatures…

…Snow squalls possible over the Interior Northeast on Wednesday…

…Precipitation chances increase over the Midwest and Plains Thursday
with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Central/Southern High
Plains…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 28, 2023

Updated at 8:29 p.m. Tuesday March 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023

...Powerful storm system brings more heavy rainfall/mountain snow to the
West with cooling temperatures...

...Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding tapers off across the
Southeast tonight...

...Chance for light snow across the Great Lakes, followed by a frigid
airmass...

...Snow squalls possible over the Interior Northeast on Wednesday
evening...

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 27, 2023

Updated at 2:18 p.m. EDT Monday March 27, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 30 2023

…Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
continues in the Southeast…

…Series of frontal systems increase precipitation chances for the
Northeast through Tuesday…

…Chilly temperatures and the chance for snow across portions of the
Plains and Great Lakes…

…Powerful storm system to bring yet another round of heavy snow/rainfall
to California with cooling temperatures…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 26, 2023

Updated at 5: 55 p.m. EDT Sunday March 26, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 27 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 29 2023

…Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
expected through tonight in the Southeast…

…Series of frontal systems to bring light to moderate precipitation
chances to the Midwest and Northeast…

…Snow chances linger over the Rockies as temperatures across the West
remain chilly…

…Powerful storm system to carry heavy snow/rainfall threat to California
beginning Monday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 25, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023

…Heavy snow winds down over Great Lakes then picks up over northern New
England; snow continues over Northern Rockies…

…Rain and severe thunderstorms expected from Mississippi to Carolinas
through beginning of work week…

…Powerful storm system to bring unsettled weather to West Coast
beginning Monday…

…Cold in the West warm in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic; Critical Fire
Weather for the Central/Southern Plains…

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – March 24, 2023

Updated at 6:53 p.m. EDT March 24, 2023 to provide additional information on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

Observation shows that the La Niña decayed and a La Niña Modoki-like state has appeared. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude, and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.