Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 19, 2023

April 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:03 p.m EDT Wednesday April 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 20 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 22 2023

…There is a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains on Wednesday; and a Slight Risk across Northeast Texas into
Southeast Missouri, incl. much of Arkansas on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall at the intersection of
Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri Wednesday before shifting to Northeast
Texas to Southeast Missouri, incl. much of Arkansas on Thursday…

…Moderate to Heavy snow will affect much of Montana and Northern North
Dakota today, before sliding eastward along the US/Canadian boarder of
North Dakota/Minnesota on Thursday…

…Critical Fire Weather continues over much of New Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles for Wednesday, remaining Elevated to Critical
across New Mexico on Thursday…
 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 18, 2023

April 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:06 p.m. EDT Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 19 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 21 2023

…Snow over the Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday; moderate snow
over parts of the Northern Plains on Wednesday...

…Critical Fire Weather will continue through Thursday across the
Southern High Plains as well as across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Plains, Lower Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys on
Wednesday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 17, 2023

April 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:31 p.m. Monday, April 17, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 18 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 20 2023

…Late season heavy snow event to diminish Monday night across the Upper
Lakes region…

…Heavy snows possible across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
Monday night and Tuesday and into portions of the Northern High Plains on
Wednesday…

…Below average temperatures expected across most areas to the west of
the Rockies, along the northern tier from the Northern Plains, Upper Lakes
to northern New England, while above average temperatures stretch from the
Plains to much of the East Coast…

…Elevated to Critical Fire weather threat for the Southern High Plains…

Colorado River Basin Update April 16, 2023

April 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated to include additional information. Final update was at 1:23 a.m. Monday April 17, 2023

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of the situation as of April 1, 2023.  But I have provided links to obtain more current information. In a way, the situation is better than it seemed to be on April 1 but flood risk has increased in a few places. I have also included some of the graphics from the April 7, 2023 presentation. So some of the information is a bit more current than the rest of it.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows the area covered in the CBRFC Report.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 16, 2023

April 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:20 p.m. EDT Sunday, April 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 19 2023

…Late season winter storm hammers parts of the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes…

…Cooler weather returning to the Eastern U.S. to begin the work week…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 15, 2023

April 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:24 p.m. Saturday, April 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 16 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 18 2023

…Showers and thunderstorms move from the Mississippi Valley to the East
Coast Sunday-Monday…

…Accumulating snowfall forecast for portions of the Upper Midwest
starting Sunday evening…

…Temperatures drop for the Great Lakes/Northeast Monday after an
anomalously warm week while the Plains sees a warm up…

…Series of Pacific storm systems brings unsettled weather to the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert Status to El Nino Watch on April 13, 2023

April 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Additional editing at 11:01 p.m. EDT April 14, 2023. I noticed that a map had dropped out of the article so I replaced it and I expanded the discussion blocks. I moved some graphics around. It will be easier to read now. While preparing the article I had not realized the extent of the changes. So I have better highlighted those changes now.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

If you read the fine print you can see that

“While the lower accuracy of forecasts during the spring can result in surprises, the recent oceanic Kelvin wave plus recurring westerly wind anomalies are anticipated to further warm the tropical Pacific Ocean.  The coastal warming in the eastern Pacific may foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin.  Therefore, an El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ³ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance).  In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023.”

The article includes two very interesting posts from the ENSO Blog. They are worth reading.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 14, 2023

April 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:58 p.m. Friday, April 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 15 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 17 2023

…Threat of severe thunderstorms across the central Plains tonight shifts
towards the middle/lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Southeast on
Sunday…

…Developing storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend to
potentially lead to gusty winds and a changeover from rain to snow between
Iowa to the U.P. of Michigan on Sunday…

…Unsettled weather lingers across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, while
wet weather returns to the Pacific Northwest…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 13, 2023

April 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 9:10 p.m. Thursday, April 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 14 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 16 2023

…Anomalous warmth including record-breaking temperatures continue for
the Midwest and Northeast…

…Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall moving up the
East Coast through Saturday…

…Threat of heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and critical fire
weather for the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley to end the
week…

…Lingering snow showers continue for the Northern/Central Rockies
through Friday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 12, 2023

April 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:05 p.m. Wednesday, April 12. 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 13 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 15 2023

…Widespread showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall to expand
across the Southeast…

…Heavy snow possible across parts of the Intermountain West and
central/northern Rockies through Friday…

…Threat of severe thunderstorms enter the central/southern Plains by the
end of the week…

…Record-breaking warmth continues across much of the Great Lakes and
Northeast…