Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 27, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 30 2023

…More rounds of heavy rain and severe weather are expected to impact the
southeastern quadrant of the U.S. through late week …

…Another quick round of wet snow should spread from the northern to
central Rockies through tonight/early Friday…

…A warming trend across the West could break temperature records by
Friday while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of
the U.S. from the Rockies eastward…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 26, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023

…Heavy rain and severe weather in the Southern Plains through tonight
should push east Thursday-Friday…

…Severe weather with potentially large hail could occur across the
Florida Peninsula through this evening…

…Heavy wet snow over portions of the Rockies is tapering off, but more
wet snow is expected by Thursday…

…Warming temperatures across the West could break records by Friday
while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of the
U.S. from the Rockies eastward…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 25, 2023

Updated at 7;20 p.m. EDT Tuesday April 25, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023

…Heavy rain, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy wet snow expected to develop over the Colorado Rockies and into
portions of the Front Range tonight…

…Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West…

…Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
southern Rockies to southern High Plains; Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for central Florida…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 24, 2023

Updated at 3:21 p.m. April 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023

…Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West…

…Heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central to Southern Plains…

…Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
Southern High Plains…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 23, 2023

Updated at 4:48 p.m. EDT Sunday April 23, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 24 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023

…March-like temperatures to engulf much of the eastern two-thirds of the
Lower 48, additional frosts/freezes expected; warmer in the Southwest..

…Damp and dreary conditions to linger in New England tonight-Monday;
more showers and storms to develop in the South Central U.S….

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers reaching the Pacific Northwest
will continue to spread into the northern and central Rockies…

Two Multi-seasonal Weather Outlooks: NOAA and JAMSTEC April 22, 2023

Some additional light editing at 5:03 p.m  EDT Sunday April 23, 2023 to explain a difference in the way the two agencies present information.

Here we present two multi-season weather outlooks.
NOAA provides such an outlook for the U.S. every month and JAMSTEC does so for the World. Their world outlook of course includes the U.S.  I used to compare the two. The reader can do this themselves.

The JAMSTEC forecast is of interest partly because both Japan and the US.  have weather that is mostly based on the Pacific Ocean.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 22, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 23 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023

…Showers and storms with locally heavy rain linger in New England
Sunday-Monday…

…Areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue Sunday across
southern Texas…

…Frost/Freeze expected across portions of the Central Plains into the
Midwest Sunday morning…

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers will spread from the Pacific
Northwest Sunday into the Rockies Monday…

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on April 20, 2023 – The Southwest Monsoon is expected to be less productive than usual. An El Nino Winter is Expected

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of May plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

  • ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023. An El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance)
  • The combination of elevated snowpack and high soil moisture across much of the West coupled with below normal SSTs currently observed in the Gulf of California and the Pacific off the west Coast of the Baja California Peninsula would favor a slower evolution of monsoonal circulation.
  • El Niño is expected to become more of a factor and the pattern begins to increasingly reflect El Niño conditions during the cold months. As a result, enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures indicated for the Southern CONUS late summer/early fall are reduced by the winter. Conversely, chances of above normal temperatures increase across the Northern Tier by the winter months.
  • As we enter the fall and winter months, the pattern begins to increasingly reflect an El Niño signature. Increased probabilities for above normal precipitation depicted across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys during late summer and early fall transitions to the East and Gulf Coasts during the winter months, consistent with El Niño. Conversely, an increasingly dry signal is evident across the northwestern CONUS by the winter with probabilities of below normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent across the Pacific Northwest from November-December-January (NDJ) 2023-24 through JFM 2024. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for the Great Lakes Region westward toward the Northern Plains during the cold months, consistent with El Niño.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 21, 2023

Updated at 6:51 p.m. EDT Friday, April 21, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 22 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 24 2023

…Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue eastward along a cold front
from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today to the East Coast this weekend
with severe weather and flash flooding possible…

…Dome of high pressure to deliver widespread swath of abnormally chilly
temperatures from the Nation’s Heartland today and Saturday to the East
Coast by Sunday…

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers for the northern/central
Rockies and Pacific Northwest; unsettled and stormy second half of the
weekend for southern and central Texas...

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 20, 2023

Updated at 3:52 p.m. EDT Thursday, April 20, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 21 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 23 2023

…Showers and thunderstorms continue eastward along a cold front from the
Mississippi Valley to the East Coast with isolated flash flooding and
severe weather possible…

…Moderate to locally heavy snow will continue into the day Friday for
portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest…

…Precipitation chances increase for the Northern/Central Rockies and
Pacific Northwest Friday; tranquil conditions for California and the
Southwest…