Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 2, 2023

July 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 02 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 02 2023 – 12Z Tue Jul 04 2023

…Heavy rain with the risk of localized flash flooding and severe weather
stretching from the Northeast to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley today…

…Heat will be less intense across the South but will remain excessively
hot over California and the Desert Southwest…

…Much above normal temperatures for portions of the northern Plains and
upper Midwest ahead of rain/storm chances Monday into the 4th of July holiday…

NOAA Updates It’s July 2023 Outlook on June 30, 2023- It is a dramatic change from the Mid-Month Outlook

July 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is July of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for July and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important statements within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for July for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

  • El Niño is still present in the equatorial Pacific, and likely to remain in place for the entire month.
  • For the temperature outlook, the largest changes from the mid-month outlook to the updated outlook extend from the Northern and Central Rockies to High Plains, and across southern Alaska.
  • The outlook over the Northern and Central Rockies and High Plains now favors below-normal temperatures, largely influenced by the forecast conditions early in the month (Days 1-14).
  • The probabilities for above-normal temperatures are decreased over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, reflective of the latest official outlooks and model guidance.
  • The precipitation outlook for Alaska has changed to favoring above-normal precipitation from the Alaska Peninsula northward across western Alaska to the Brooks Ranges and along the northern coast.
  • Hurricane Beatriz could trigger a monsoon moisture surge during the first half of July across the Southwest, so probabilities are mitigated compared to some model guidance.
  • Stronger signals  for above-normal precipitation are located over the Central Great Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley due to predicted rains in the first week exceeding the threshold for the below normal category on the monthly timescale.
  • Small portions of Texas are also likely to exceed that threshold during the first week of July.
  • During the remainder of the month, an active storm track is forecast from the Northern Rockies to the Ohio Valley and Northeast, which leads to enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation in those regions.
  • During July, a pattern change favors widespread above-normal rainfall extending from the central Plains across the Corn Belt and Northeast, with enhanced rainfall possibly extending southward to the southern Appalachians and Piedmont.

It may be easier to just look at the maps than digest the above.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for July. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the July Outlook. We have also included the current fire incidents (dramatically decreased) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showingthe water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 1, 2023

July 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:20 p.m. EDT Saturday July 1, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 02 2023 – 00Z Tue Jul 04 2023

…Heavy rain with the risk of localized flash flooding and severe weather
stretching from the Northeast to the Mid-South Sunday…

…Excessive heat continues for portions of the South as well as
California and the Desert Southwest…

…Much above normal temperatures for portions of the Northern Plains and
Upper-Midwest ahead of rain/storm chances Monday…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 30, 2023

June 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:02 p.m. EDT Friday, June 30, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023 – 00Z Mon Jul 03 2023

…More severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain to track eastward
from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley for the next couple of days…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories across much of California into
the Desert Southwest as well as through the lower and mid-Mississippi
Valley…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic…

Weekly Crop Report June 29, 2023

June 29, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the June 27, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the June 19 to June 25 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but due to a personal problem, I was not able to publish it until Wednesday night.

It now seems more like an average crop.  Both corn and soybeans had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been somewhat compromised by drought. Soybeans are doing a bit better than corn. The condition report is a bit worse this week. The weather was not that bad but key crops did not recover from a long period of inadequate precipitation.

We also include the recent report on cattle on feed. I vary these reports to give readers information on different crops.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 29, 2023

June 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Update at 6:46 p.m. on Thursday, June 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 30 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 02 2023

…Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect over the central US on
Thursday and Saturday…

…There is an Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Thursday, and an Enhanced Risk of
severe weather over the Central High Plains Thursday evening…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Central Gulf
Coast…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley,
Great Lakes, Western Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Northeast, and
Mid-Atlantic…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 28, 2023

June 28, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4;52 p.m. June 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 29 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023

…Record heat expected from the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley,Lower Tennessee Valley and Central
Gulf coast…

…Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue to produce poor air quality
from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, Mid West Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic…

…Heat also forecast to build through the interior valleys of
California…

…Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Central Plains into the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley…

…Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions to persist from the Four
Corners region into the Southwest…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 27, 2023

June 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jun 27 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 27 2023 – 12Z Thu Jun 29 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Mid-Atlantic…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and two areas of Slight Risk on
Wednesday over parts of Upper Mississippi Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the Southwest,
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Western Gulf Coast…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valley…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 26, 2023

June 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:06 p.m. Monday June 26, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 27 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 29 2023

…Oppressive heatwave over the south-central U.S. begins to expand into
the Plains/Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley mid-week…

…Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday for
much of the Northeast…

…Rain chances for the northern tier of the West; a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather for the Four Corners region Tuesday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 25, 2023

June 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:43 p.m. Sunday, June 25, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 26 2023 – 00Z Wed Jun 28 2023

…Widespread showers and storms Monday for the East Coast with the risk
of flash flooding and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic…

…Oppressive heat wave shows no signs of letting up across portions of
the south-central U.S….

…Locally heavy rainfall possible for northern portions of the West…