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Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Can be Compared to the NOAA Outlook – Posted on October 5, 2024

By Sig Silber October 5, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The latest observations show that there are weak signs of a La Niña. However, the SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn and persist into the boreal winter, although there is a large uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the event.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published recently which can be accessed HERE.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on September 25 which was much later than when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of September 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it was issued.

We do not have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for OND, DJF and MAM so it is really an eight-month forecast as OND and DJF overlap a bit. For each of these three-month Outlooks, I also show the corresponding NOAA Precipitation Outlook for comparison purposes. The two are remarkably similar which is very unusual.

We also have single-month JAMASTEC forecasts for October through March 2025. I have a single-month outlook for October from NOAA but not single-month outlooks for the other five months so I could not show those comparisons.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is a cold anomaly and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas in the Pacific along the Equator. The cool anomaly along the Equator is somewhat further west than usual which gives it the Modoki characteristics.

The U.S. funded some of the Modoki research but for some reason declines to mention it in their seasonal outlook discussions.

In the OND image above, look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west along the Equator. Thus the La Nina has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE.

Of interest also is the neutrally cold water just off the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America which can support tropical storms and hurricanes.

NOAA publishes a similar SSTA analysis. It can be accessed HERE.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 5, 2024

By Sig Silber October 5, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 05 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 – 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024

…Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while briefly overspreading portions of the Plains
and Midwest on Saturday…

…Strong winds and dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast from
the northern/central Rockies into the Plains on Saturday…

…Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the immediate Gulf Coast
through Saturday, with more of a focus toward the Florida Peninsula by
late Sunday…

A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues over portions of
central/southern California and the Desert Southwest this weekend as
upper-level ridging persists over the region. Forecast highs will once
again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of immediate coastal
areas in central/southern California and into the 100s to low 110s into
the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs will
likely be reached again following days of new record daily temperatures.
Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level
of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate
air-conditioning/hydration and those spending greater time outdoors. After
a brief period of more seasonable temperatures to the north following a
cold frontal passage, highs will trend above average again for most of the
rest of the Interior West by Sunday, with 70s into the northern Great
Basin/Rockies and 80s for the central Great Basin. Further to the east
over the central U.S., a brief period of upper-level ridging and strong
southerly flow ahead of an approaching system will bring some hotter high
temperatures to portions of the Midwest and Central Plains on Saturday.
Forecast highs into the low to mid-90s are upwards of 20 degrees above
average, and some record-tying/breaking temperatures possible here as
well. An approaching cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable air on
Sunday with highs back down into the 70s. The Southern Plains will remain
hot and above average south of the front through the weekend with upper
80s and low 90s forecast.

As noted, an upper-level wave will move quickly along the northern-tier of
the country this weekend with an accompanying surface frontal system. Lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies has led to a rapidly deepening area of
low pressure just north of the U.S./Canadian border, with a tightening
pressure gradient leading to widespread very strong, gusty winds across
the northern/central Rockies and into the northern/central Plains.
Wind-related advisories and warnings are in place for gusts upwards of
60-70 mph through Saturday. In addition, very dry conditions combined with
the gusty winds with cold frontal passage will also bring a significant
risk of wildfires. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from
northern Colorado/southern Wyoming into central Nebraska and southern
South Dakota with a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3). Widespread
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches cover much of the rest of the
region due to wildfire risk. Greater moisture further east will lead to
some showers and storms ahead of the frontal system over the Upper Great
Lakes by Saturday afternoon. Some moderate rainfall will be possible, and
strong dynamic forcing with the system could lead to some more potent
thunderstorms. A Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) has been
introduced from the Storm Prediction Center in northeastern Wisconsin
mainly for the threat of some large hail. The system will continue into
the Northeast Sunday afternoon/evening with more showers and thunderstorms
expected.

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and
increasing Gulf moisture will lead to periods of thunderstorms producing
locally heavy rainfall along the immediate Gulf Coast and eastward along a
surface trough/weak frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula this
weekend. While storms may be generally ill-focused for any potential
flooding threat, a couple areas will see a low but non-zero risk. More
concentrated storms along a coastal trough nearby the far south Texas Gulf
Coast could lead to some isolated flash flooding on Saturday. Another
focus will be along and ahead of the weak frontal boundary through the
central Florida Peninsula on Sunday, with some isolated flash flooding
possible along the Florida Gulf Coast and South Florida. The National
Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor this area of low pressure for
potential tropical development, though if something were to develop this
remains more likely after the current forecast period into next week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 4, 2024

By Sig Silber October 4, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 04 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024

…Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while also building into the central United States
on Saturday…

…Strong winds and dangerous fire weather concerns forecast throughout
the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the northern/central
Plains…

…Locally heavy rain possible across the immediate Gulf Coast as
unsettled weather develops in the Gulf of Mexico…

A Fall heatwave will continue into the weekend over portions of the Desert
Southwest and central/southern California as a persistent trend of
upper-ridging over the region remains in place. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are forecast as temperatures soar once again
into the upper 90s to 100s. Heat-related advisories/warnings are in place
as the heat remains at levels dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling
or hydration. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be
well-above average Friday elsewhere across the Interior West, with highs
well into the 80s for many locations across the northern/central Rockies
and Great Basin. A cold front will bring cooler, more Fall-like
temperatures to the northern Great Basin/Rockies on Saturday. Higher
heights will also expand eastward over the central United States on
Saturday helping to spread much above average temperatures into portions
of the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast highs in the
80s to low 90s in the Upper Midwest and as high as the mid-90s in the
central Plains are upwards of 20 degrees above average, with
record-tying/breaking highs possible here as well.

A fast-moving upper-level wave/accompanying surface frontal system will
pass along the northern tier of the West and into the central U.S. over
the next couple of days. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be
possible over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with some lighter showers
into the northern Rockies. Additional showers/storms will accompany the
system as it reaches the Upper Great Lakes later Saturday and into the
early morning hours Sunday. However, the bigger story will be widespread
gusty winds and high fire danger with the fast moving system as it passes
through the northern Great Basin/Rockies Friday and into the northern High
Plains Saturday. Wind-related watches and warnings have been issued as
gusts higher than 60 mph can be expected, leading to risk of blowing
debris, potential property damage, and isolated power outages, as well as
difficult travel conditions especially for high-profile vehicles. In
addition, the gusty winds and very dry conditions ahead of the approaching
cold front with the system will bring an increased threat for wildfires.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of
Fire Weather over portions of the northern Great Basin and central/eastern
Wyoming Friday, and the central Rockies into the central Plains on
Saturday. Much of the rest of the region is under Red Flag Warnings and
Fire Weather Watches.

Enhanced tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast will lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy showers for the next few days. The lack of a
focusing system/boundary and scattered nature of the storms currently
suggests a low risk for flash flooding, but an isolated instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, some light to moderate
showers can be expected with a cold frontal passage through the Northeast
late Friday/early Saturday. High temperatures will generally be at to a
bit above average for the eastern U.S., with widespread 70s to the north
and 80s in the South.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 3, 2024

By Sig Silber October 3, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 03 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 – 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms return to the Gulf Coast from Thursday
evening into Saturday…

…Rain develops over the Pacific Northwest and scattered showers over
parts of the Midwest, Central/Southern Appalachians, and Northeast…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

On Thursday, tropical moisture will start to build over the
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. Upper-level energy over the
Western Gulf Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico will move into parts of the
Southeast and Central Gulf Coast, producing showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Gulf Coast from Thursday evening into Saturday. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida through
Saturday. Furthermore, the moisture will also build over the
Central/Southern Appalachians, as upper-level energy moves over the area,
showers and thunderstorms will develop from Thursday afternoon into Friday
evening.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to parts of the
Central Plains will move eastward to just off the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday. The boundary will produce rain with
embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning into the early afternoon. As the front moves into the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the region late Friday evening into Saturday.

In addition, on Friday morning, a second front will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest, moving to the Northern Plains by Saturday. The system
will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday into
late Friday evening. Overnight Friday, wet snow will develop over the
highest elevations of the Cascades. The rain will expand into the Northern
Intermountain Region Friday evening into Saturday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest this
week. Moderate to major heat impacts are possible in areas near San
Francisco, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Extreme Heat Risk impacts are
forecast for parts of the Southwest. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest
Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors or in a
building without cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness.
Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government
websites for information on cooling centers.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 2, 2024

By Sig Silber October 2, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 02 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 – 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

….There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast on Thursday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central High
Plains/Central Rockies on Wednesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Appalachians
to the Central Gulf Coast moves eastward to the Northeast and dissipates.
On Wednesday, the front will produce light rain over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. The light rain will
end overnight Wednesday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of Florida through Friday.

On Thursday, tropical moisture will start to build over the
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. Upper-level energy over the
Western Gulf Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico will move into parts of the
Southeast and Central Gulf Coast, producing moderate to heavy rain over
parts of the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf
Coast from Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain. Light rain and showers will also develop
over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains to parts of the
Pacific Northwest will move eastward to the Great Lakes and southward to
the Central Plains by Thursday evening. As the boundary continues to move
eastward, light rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and expand into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday.

Furthermore, down-slope flow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies
will create warm air over parts of the Central Rockies, combined with
strong gust wind and dry fuels, which have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over parts of the Central Rockies on Wednesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest this
week. Moderate to major heat impacts are possible in areas near San
Francisco, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Extreme Heat Risk impacts are
forecast in Phoenix. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in
the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors or in a building without
cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government websites
for information on cooling centers.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Forecast for October 2024 on September 30, 2024 and this article was posted on October 1, 2024

By Sig Silber October 1, 2024weatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is October of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for October for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for October. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (OND) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the October Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for October is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for October and the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for October and the previously issued three-month outlook for OND 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for October 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for October

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on September 19, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for October. One expects some changes 11 days later. However, the changes to the updated October Outlook are fairly significant. This then gives us some reason to question the (September 19, 2024) three-month OND temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for October and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes August the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that November and December will be very different than October. You can subtract October from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined November/December Outlook.

However given the major change in the new Outlook outlook from what was issued on September 19, 2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on September 19, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change is consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article. Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2024

By Sig Silber October 1, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 01 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off the
Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and upper-level
energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Florida
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On Tuesday, the front
will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and by Tuesday
afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee Valley. Light rain moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians by Wednesday and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
evening. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida from Tuesday into Thursday.

Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated with down-sloping
air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of the North High Plains on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will produce scattered
showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest.
Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People
spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an
increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat
and check local media and government websites for cooling center
information.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 30, 2024

By Sig Silber September 30, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 30 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Monday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Monday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians will slowly
weaken and move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday, with the energy
moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday evening. A rich pool of
moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then
the Mid-Atlantic will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy
rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall ends. Rain
and showers will continue over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
night.

Meanwhile, a dry front extending from the Northern Plains to the Central
High Plains/Central Rockies will move to the Lower Upper Great Lakes
southwestward to the Southern Plains by Wednesday. On Tuesday, the front
will intersect moisture over the Upper Midwest, producing light rain over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes. By Tuesday afternoon, rain will expand
along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Light
rain will move into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by
Wednesday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of Florida from Monday into Wednesday.

Ahead of the front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to
the Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level
ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over the North/Central Plains on Monday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 29, 2024

By Sig Silber September 29, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Sep 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Sunday and Monday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest…

An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley will slowly weaken and move
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday. A rich pool of moisture extends
from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then the Mid-Atlantic
will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy rain over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues, however, over a
slightly smaller area. Once again, the moisture and upper-level energy
will aid in producing heavy rain over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a dry front will move from the Northern Rockies to the Upper
Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Ahead of the
front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to the
Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level
ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of
fire weather over the North/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday.
The front will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southeastern California and the Southwest that will
range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The
temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of
Southeastern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 27, 2024

By Sig Silber September 27, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 27 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024

...HELENE is forecast to continue to move inland to the northwestward to
the Ohio Valley by Saturday while slowly weakening...

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Appalachians on Friday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley on
Saturday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest...

HELENE is forecast to move inland, heading northwestward to the Ohio
Valley, and slowly weaken by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level
4/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday
morning.  Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. In addition,
areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Lives and
property are in great danger.

Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through
Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and hail. Also, rain will develop over parts of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday.

On Saturday, the excessive rainfall threat from HELENE lessens. However,
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Saturday. Yet showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula. Additionally,
rain will continue over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland
to the Northern Plains. The system will produce rain over parts of the
Northwest ending by late Friday afternoon.

In addition, an upper-level high will remain over the Southwest through
Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will provide little relief from the
heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings
over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest.

alid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 ...HELENE is forecast to continue to move inland to the northwestward to the Ohio Valley by Saturday while slowly weakening... ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Appalachians on Friday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley on Saturday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday... �There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest� HELENE is forecast to move inland, heading northwestward to the Ohio Valley, and slowly weaken by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday morning. Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. In addition, areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Lives and property are in great danger. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts and hail. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday. On Saturday, the excessive rainfall threat from HELENE lessens. However, heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Saturday. Yet showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, rain will continue over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Plains. The system will produce rain over parts of the Northwest ending by late Friday afternoon. In addition, an upper-level high will remain over the Southwest through Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will provide little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest.