NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on October 12, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

October 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations. That is concerning as some of the other Weather Advisory Organizations are predicting a “Historically Strong” El Nino.

We have included an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker and a link to a fairly comprehensive article we wrote on El Nino back in September.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4).  There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0C).  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.  Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons.  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. We see that this month there is a substantial chance of a “historically strong” event.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%.  However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; ).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO stands for August/September/October. The approach may have changed as IRI (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School) may no longer be involved.  Their website has not been updated this month.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond MJJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are pretty similar.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 13 2023

October 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 13 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023

…Potent low pressure system continues to spread heavy rain and severe
weather across the north-central Plains to the Midwest today…

…Some heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to slide across the
Pennsylvania and northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/early Sunday as the low
re-intensifies near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night/early Sunday…

Crop Report October 12, 2023 – Things are looking fairly good. But this can change.

October 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 11, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 8, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It seems like perhaps a little better than an average crop which is very good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning although it is covering a small area than what was forecast for last week.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a report on peanut prices.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze and other warnings.

The following shows how complex weather patterns can be.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 12, 2023

October 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 12 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023

…Significant weather system to bring heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
even higher elevation snow from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes…

…Heavy rain/flash flooding and severe weather likely to continue into
Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast and northern Florida…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 11, 2023

October 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 11 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the western U.S. into
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest while above average
temperatures shift into parts of the central/southern Plains and Ohio
Valley…

…Increased orida…threat for heavy rain and flash flooding for portions of
Nebraska/South Dakota into the Upper Midwest and along the east-central
Gulf Coast into northern Fl

…Severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the central Plains today
and Thursday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 10, 2023

October 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 10 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift into parts of the Great Plains…

…Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for portions of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 9, 2023

October 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 09 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023

…Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift from the Interior West into the Great Plains…

…Below average temperatures continue for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
while lake effect showers persist through Tuesday…

…Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for southern Texas on Tuesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 8, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee remnants will hit Maine Today

October 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 08 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023

…Heavy rain from the remnants of Philippe will come to an end across
Maine this morning but lingering areas of flooding and gusty winds will
remain into the day…

…Below average temperatures for much of the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.
along with lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms downwind of the
Great Lakes…

…Colder and wetter weather to arrive on the West Coast Monday, but above
average warmth to remain for the Interior West and Rockies..

cone graphic

Information on Droughts October 7, 2023

October 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Drought has been a problem this year in the corn and soybean growing area but it has been an ongoing problem for some time. Global Warming makes it worse especially in areas where it leads to reduced precipitation. But in all areas, it results in higher rates of evaporation and possible transpiration.

We are not going into drought in detail in this article but I am showing you some of what comes across my desk from NOAA that you might find interesting.

You need to click HERE to watch the droughts unfold. Then you can scroll down to see how drought unfolded since 1921. It uses different metrics than the current drought monitor which allows us to go back farther in time. It is very dramatic. It was not possible for me to directly show the images in this article.

Now we will take a look a the drought history from 2000 to 2020

I have not included the criteria for the various categories of drought but you can see that since the Drought Monitor has been in existence drought has been fairly prevalent with short periods of minimal drought.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 7, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine

October 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 07 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023

…Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning…

…Much cooler temperatures to spread eastward from the central U.S. into
much of the eastern U.S. this weekend…

…Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West…

cone graphic