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Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 20, 2023

By Sig Silber October 20, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 20 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023

…Storm system to bring showers and thunderstorms to the East into the
weekend…

…Much above average, record-tying/breaking warmth for much of the
central-western U.S…

cone graphic

Crop Report October 19, 2023 – More Corn was Planted and More Corn was Harvested.

By Sig Silber October 19, 2023weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 17, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 15, 2023. The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It is back to looking like an average crop or perhaps even a bit less than average. But there is lots of corn which is usually more profitable than soybeans.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a report on production forecasts. It is a long report and we show the Table of Contents, a summary of key points, and the link to the full report.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze and other warnings.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary. The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 19, 2023

By Sig Silber October 19, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 19 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023

…Increasingly unsettled weather is in store for the eastern U.S. over
the next few days..

…High temperatures will challenge daily records across numerous locations`
over the western U.S. today, spreading into Texas by Friday and into
Saturday…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 18, 2023

By Sig Silber October 18, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 18 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023

…An Alberta clipper will spread gusty winds farther south into the
central Plains today as rain moves across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest…

…Rain is expected for the Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday as
scattered thunderstorms develop and expand across the Mid-South into the
Southeast…

…A warming trend in the western U.S. will lead to high temperatures
challenging daily records by Thursday…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 17, 2023

By Sig Silber October 17, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 17 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023

…An Alberta clipper will bring very gusty winds and a round of rain
across the northern Plains later today and Wednesday, spreading into the
Great Lakes Wednesday night and early Thursday…

…A warming trend is in store for the eastern half of the country as an
expansive cool airmass moderates…

…Warm and dry air across much of the western U.S. will spread into the
Plains but rainy conditions remain over the Pacific Northwest…

Looking back at September for the United States October 16, 2023 – There is Cause for Concern

By Sig Silber October 16, 2023weatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about September 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have. When I was working on this article Friday night the NOAA website for the state ranking was not working correctly and I thought I would not be able to include the state rankings but I was able to fiddle with the url and get it to provide me with the images I wanted. Sometimes the weekly USDA crop bulletin also includes those images. At any rate, I was able to include those images in the article so I think readers may find it interesting.

This is the North America Temperature trend not specific to the U.S. but this is what I was able to find. You do see that September was a big increase over the trend, there is a regression line in this graphic. The slope is 1.31C per century. That is quite a bit. For comparison, I am showing below the Global Trend. The full report on Global September Weather can be accessed HERE.

Not surprisingly the global trend is smoother since it averages in multiple parts of Earth. But in both cases, the question is why the steep rise started perhaps in 1980 Globally but showed up more in North America in perhaps 1997 when we had the MegaNino. That seems to be the time the Pacific Decadal Oscillation changed phase to PDO Neg.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 16, 2023

By Sig Silber October 16, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 16 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023

…A cool autumn air-mass will be slow to depart the eastern half of the
country with scattered showers in parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, and
Central Appalachians…

…Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions over
the Pacific Northwest…

…A warming trend expected in the Great Plains as a round of rain reaches
into the northern Plains late Tuesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 15, 2023

By Sig Silber October 15, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 15 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023

…Departing deep storm will usher cooler and damp autumn weather
throughout the eastern half of the country with areas of showers lingering
over the Northeast, lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into southern
Appalachians…

…Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions
continue over the Pacific Northwest…

Looking back at September for the World October 14, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest September Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

By Sig Silber October 14, 2023weatherNo Comments

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of September dating back to 1850. The increase this September is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in September is shocking. Ignore 1886 as that is just an artifact from when I snipped this trend analysis. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 14, 2023

By Sig Silber October 14, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 14 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023

…A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather from the upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region today…

…Windy but slowly improving weather expected across much of the eastern
U.S. on Sunday into Monday as the strong low pressure system moves off the
East Coast…

…Dry across much of the western half of the country but rainy along
coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California…