Southwest Drought Briefing – August 26, 2023

August 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) hosted a Drought Briefing on the Southwest on August 22, 2023. In this article, we provide the recording of the webinar and some summary slides.

In the body of the article, there is an outline of the material presented in the webinar and the time that it is presented. The video should play if you click on it and then click again on the start button. But if for some reason it does not, simply click HERE and you will then be able to click on the start button and the video will begin. But I do not think that you will need to do that.

If the video starts somewhere other than at the beginning, you simply click on the progress bar and drag it to the left which is the starting position. The progress bar also allows you to skip over parts of the presentation that is of less interest and it will remember where you were if you watch the presentation in parts at different times.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Weather Forecast – August 26, 2023

August 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal autumn and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually  takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on August 22, 2023 which was later than usual.  That is important because the model runs are based on conditions as of August 1.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in all three time periods. It seems to be stronger in the 1st and 2nd time periods. The warmest water shifts west in the third period exhibiting Modoki characteristics. The JAMSTEC images seem more normal than the NOAA images. The full set of NOAA SSTA images can be found HERE.

Both NOAA and JAMSTEC are showing very warm oceans. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

Then we look at three forecasts. JAMSTEC tries to work with meteorological seasons and this month it lines up perfectly and we have three full-season forecasts.

Now we look at the three seasonal forecasts.

The above covers September/October/November (SON 2023) also known as meteorological Autumn.

Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown in the body of the article:

“The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal autumn (austral spring). The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions. ”

“As regards the rainfall in the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Uganda, Tanzania, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and the Philippines. In contrast, southern Alaska, the Caribbean, La Plata, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central and western Africa, the Horn of Africa, and some parts of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. ”

“The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the autumn. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the autumn.”

The above covers December/January/February (DJF 2023-2024) which is meteorological Winter.

Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown below:

“The model also predicts a similar condition (to autumn) in the boreal winter (austral summer).

“In the boreal winter (austral summer), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal areas of Canada and the northern U.S.A., Hawaii, Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, northern Australia, the Philippines, and southern Africa. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of the U.S.A., some parts of La Plata, central and eastern Africa, Madagascar, some parts of Central and East Asia, and some parts of Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.”

“The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the winter. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the winter.”

And above, March/April/May (MAM) 2024 is meteorological Spring.  JAMSTEC does not provide its interpretation of its third season but one can observe it on the maps.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 26, 2023

August 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 26 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 28 2023

…Dangerous heat continues across the Gulf Coast this weekend…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 25, 2023

August 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 24 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023

…Dangerous heat continues from the Midwest to Gulf Coast, with relief
finally on the way for some by this weekend…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Lower Great
Lakes and parts of the central Appalachians into tonight…

…Scattered flash flooding concerns forecast from the central Great Basin
to the central High Plains through Friday…

Crop Report August 24, 2023 – Things are Still Looking Good

August 24, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 22, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending August 20, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays. I have omitted a number of graphics that are available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin which can be accessed HERE.

It now seems like an average crop or better especially given the recovery of the corn and soybean crops as the drought in the important growing area for those two crops let up.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. It includes a report on U.S. rice stocks (inventory). I also included crop-related weather information.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 24, 2023

August 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 24 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023

…Dangerous heat continues from the Midwest to Gulf Coast, with relief
finally on the way for some by this weekend…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Lower Great
Lakes and parts of the central Appalachians into tonight…

…Scattered flash flooding concerns forecast from the central Great Basin
to the central High Plains through Friday…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 23, 2023

August 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 23 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 23 2023 – 12Z Fri Aug 25 2023

…Over 100 million people under heat alerts from the Midwest to the Gulf
Coast as record-breaking temperatures continue through the end of the
week…

…Scattered flash flooding threat spans across West Texas, the Southwest,
and central Great Basin over the next few days…

…Locally heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across the Lower
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 22, 2023

August 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 22 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 22 2023 – 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023

…Extremely dangerous heat will persist across a widespread region
spanning from the Midwest to Gulf Coast this week…

…Heavy rain and gusty winds associated with Tropical Storm Harold to
impact South Texas today…

…Scattered flash flooding concerns exist across parts of the Great Basin
and Southwest…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 21, 2023

August 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 22 2023 – 00Z Thu Aug 24 2023

…There is a Slight of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western U. S.
on Monday and Tuesday and southern Texas on Tuesday…

…There are Air Quality Warnings over the parts of the Pacific Northwest,
Central Rockies, and Mid-Atlantic…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of the Plains, the
Mississippi Valley, and Central/Western Gulf Coast…

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 20, 2023

August 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 21 2023 – 00Z Wed Aug 23 2023

…There is a Slight to High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southern California, the Great Basin, and the Northern Intermountain
Region…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Southeastern California…

…There are Air Quality Warnings over the parts of the Pacific Northwest
and Northern/Central Rockies…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of the Plains, the
Mississippi Valley, and Central/Western Gulf Coast…

 

[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]

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