Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 25, 2023

September 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 25 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 27 2023

…Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding exists over
parts of the Upper Midwest through Tuesday…

…Unsettled weather pattern with daily chances for widely scattered
thunderstorms to set up over Florida this week…

…A few rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall forecast throughout
northern California and the Pacific Northwest into midweek…

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 24, 2023

September 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 00Z Wed Sep 27 2023

…There are two areas of Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England and second over the
Southern Plain and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains…

…There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…

 

What about El Nino? September 23, 2023

September 23, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Since it is almost certain we will have El Nino this winter and a strong one at that, it is useful to think about what that means for precipitation in the lower 48 states.

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The above shows El Nino winters from 1950 to today organized from upper left to lower right by the strength of the ENSO ONI Index. It may be missing one or even two recent El Ninos. I know how to create this sort of graphic but I prefer to use one that has been created by others. The point is that there is a lot of variation among El Nino winters. In the past, I have done an analysis for the state where I live which is New Mexico to see if the phases of the AMO and PDO seem to have an impact and they do. I am not aware of any published paper on that subject. I have seen papers that look at the impact of the Hawaiin High on how wet certain parts of California get during an El Nino. The fact is we do not really know how El Nino works partly because we have so few El Nino winters to analyze.

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Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 23, 2023

September 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 00Z Sun Sep 24 2023 – 00Z Tue Sep 26 2023

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There are two areas of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and second over the Southern Plain and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley…

…Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating…

…Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook September 22, 2023 – Some Changes from what was Issued Last Month.

September 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for October. It will be updated on the last day of September.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for October and the three-month outlook for OND 2023. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature.  This tells us that November and December will be different than October to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through October/November/December of 2024. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for October and the three-month period Oct/Nov/Dec.  Small maps are provided beyond that through December of next year with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps and the changes which starting in the Spring of 2024 are significantly different from what was issued a month ago. [Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino lasting longer than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months. It seems to me that NOAA was showing some of these as El Nino months last month but has changed them to ENSO Neutral months in what they issued on September 21, 2023.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 22, 2023

September 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Valid 00Z Sat Sep 23 2023 – 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023

…Tropical Storm Ophelia is forecast to make landfall over eastern North
Carolina early on Saturday, bringing squally heavy rain, threat of flash
flooding farther inland, and storm surge to coastal communities up the
Mid-Atlantic states…

…Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions
of the central U.S., including chances for excessive rainfall…

…Summer heat continues across portions of the southern Plains, while
much cooler temperatures begin to moderate throughout the Intermountain
West and northern Rockies…

cone graphic

 

[Key Messages]

 

Crop Report September 21, 2023 – Still Looking Good

September 21, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the September 19, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 17, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but I was not able to publish it last night but I did so this evening.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop. We are starting to have Production information as well as Progress Reports and this information is included in the article.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at what finally was the impact of former Hurricane Lee

No on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 21, 2023

September 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 21 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 23 2023

…Below-normal temperatures expected across much of the western U.S.,
with widespread precipitation over the northern Intermountain West and
Rockies…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall expected for
portions of the northern & southern Plains…

…Gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf likely for portions of the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic Friday and into the weekend..

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 20, 2023

September 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 20 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023 – 12Z Fri Sep 22 2023

…Much cooler, Fall-like temperatures and locally heavy rainfall for the
West…

…Above average heat forecast from the Plains to the Great Lakes through
Thursday…

…Chances for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue for the
Southern Plains…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 19, 2023

September 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 19 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 19 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023

…Heavy rain and severe storm chances for parts of the Southern Plains on
Tuesday…

…Above average heat forecast for the Central U.S. through mid-week…

…Shower and storm chances as well as some chilly Fall temperatures begin
to spread across the West mid-week…