weather Archives - Page 49 of 106

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 18, 2023

By Sig Silber October 18, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 18 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023

…An Alberta clipper will spread gusty winds farther south into the
central Plains today as rain moves across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest…

…Rain is expected for the Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday as
scattered thunderstorms develop and expand across the Mid-South into the
Southeast…

…A warming trend in the western U.S. will lead to high temperatures
challenging daily records by Thursday…

cone graphic

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 17, 2023

By Sig Silber October 17, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 17 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023

…An Alberta clipper will bring very gusty winds and a round of rain
across the northern Plains later today and Wednesday, spreading into the
Great Lakes Wednesday night and early Thursday…

…A warming trend is in store for the eastern half of the country as an
expansive cool airmass moderates…

…Warm and dry air across much of the western U.S. will spread into the
Plains but rainy conditions remain over the Pacific Northwest…

Looking back at September for the United States October 16, 2023 – There is Cause for Concern

By Sig Silber October 16, 2023weatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about September 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have. When I was working on this article Friday night the NOAA website for the state ranking was not working correctly and I thought I would not be able to include the state rankings but I was able to fiddle with the url and get it to provide me with the images I wanted. Sometimes the weekly USDA crop bulletin also includes those images. At any rate, I was able to include those images in the article so I think readers may find it interesting.

This is the North America Temperature trend not specific to the U.S. but this is what I was able to find. You do see that September was a big increase over the trend, there is a regression line in this graphic. The slope is 1.31C per century. That is quite a bit. For comparison, I am showing below the Global Trend. The full report on Global September Weather can be accessed HERE.

Not surprisingly the global trend is smoother since it averages in multiple parts of Earth. But in both cases, the question is why the steep rise started perhaps in 1980 Globally but showed up more in North America in perhaps 1997 when we had the MegaNino. That seems to be the time the Pacific Decadal Oscillation changed phase to PDO Neg.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 16, 2023

By Sig Silber October 16, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 16 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023

…A cool autumn air-mass will be slow to depart the eastern half of the
country with scattered showers in parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, and
Central Appalachians…

…Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions over
the Pacific Northwest…

…A warming trend expected in the Great Plains as a round of rain reaches
into the northern Plains late Tuesday…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 15, 2023

By Sig Silber October 15, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 15 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023

…Departing deep storm will usher cooler and damp autumn weather
throughout the eastern half of the country with areas of showers lingering
over the Northeast, lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into southern
Appalachians…

…Warm and dry across much of the western U.S. but rainy conditions
continue over the Pacific Northwest…

Looking back at September for the World October 14, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest September Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

By Sig Silber October 14, 2023weatherNo Comments

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of September dating back to 1850. The increase this September is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in September is shocking. Ignore 1886 as that is just an artifact from when I snipped this trend analysis. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 14, 2023

By Sig Silber October 14, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 14 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023

…A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather from the upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region today…

…Windy but slowly improving weather expected across much of the eastern
U.S. on Sunday into Monday as the strong low pressure system moves off the
East Coast…

…Dry across much of the western half of the country but rainy along
coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on October 12, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

By Sig Silber October 13, 2023weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations. That is concerning as some of the other Weather Advisory Organizations are predicting a “Historically Strong” El Nino.

We have included an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker and a link to a fairly comprehensive article we wrote on El Nino back in September.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4). There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0C). Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally. Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons. In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. We see that this month there is a substantial chance of a “historically strong” event.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; ).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO stands for August/September/October. The approach may have changed as IRI (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School) may no longer be involved. Their website has not been updated this month.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond MJJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are pretty similar.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 13 2023

By Sig Silber October 13, 2023weatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 13 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023

…Potent low pressure system continues to spread heavy rain and severe
weather across the north-central Plains to the Midwest today…

…Some heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to slide across the
Pennsylvania and northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/early Sunday as the low
re-intensifies near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night/early Sunday…

Crop Report October 12, 2023 – Things are looking fairly good. But this can change.

By Sig Silber October 12, 2023weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 11, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 8, 2023. The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It seems like perhaps a little better than an average crop which is very good considering the late and poor start. But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning although it is covering a small area than what was forecast for last week.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a report on peanut prices.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze and other warnings.

The following shows how complex weather patterns can be.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary. The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.