NOAA Updates its November 2023 Weather Outlook on October 31, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

November 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is November of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for November and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for November for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for November. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the November Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for November is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for November and the Mid-Month Outlook for November. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for November and the three-month outlook NDJ 2023 – 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for November 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for November.

There have been some significant changes especially related to precipitation. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for November.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for November and the Three-Month Outlook

 

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 1, 2023

November 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 01 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023 – 12Z Fri Nov 03 2023

…Record setting cold and subfreezing temperatures to span much of the
central and southern United States...

…Atmospheric River ushers in wet weather to the Pacific Northwest by
tonight…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 31, 2023

October 31, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 31 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 02 2023

…Crisp autumn airmass to lead to a shivering Halloween throughout much
of the central and eastern United States…

…Snow showers to swing across the Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest…

…Atmospheric River ushers in wet weather to the Pacific Northwest by
midweek…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 30, 2023

October 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 30 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

…Well below average temperatures and record-breaking cold to continue
expanding from the central United States to the Appalachians through the
beginning of November…

…Shower activity to stretch from the southern Plains to the Northeast
today, with accumulating snowfall forecast across northern Maine…

…Snow squalls possible across parts of the Northern Plains, Upper
Midwest, and Great Lakes through Halloween…

…Santa Ana wind and very dry conditions across California will lead to
an increased threat of wildfire activity…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 29, 2023

October 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 29 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 29 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023

…Heavy snow continues for parts of the central Rockies and central High
Plains through early this afternoon, while areas of light freezing
rain/drizzle are forecast throughout the Southern Plains…

…Widespread showers and thunderstorms to span from the southern Plains
to the Northeast over the next few days, including the potential for
significant snowfall over parts of northern Maine on Monday…

…Very dry and windy conditions developing across California will
increase the threat of wildfire activity…

…Record-breaking warmth expected over the southern Mid-Atlantic today as
below average temperatures envelop the central United States…
 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 28, 2023

October 28, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 28 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023

…Heavy rain and scattered areas of flash flooding possible from the
Southern Plains through the Lower Ohio Valley…

…Moderate to locally heavy snow forecast across the Central Rockies and
Front Range this weekend…

…Bitter early season cold snap spreads further across much of the Great
Plains and Rockies, while record-breaking warmth is found across the East
and Gulf Coast…

…Very dry and windy conditions developing across California by Sunday
will increase the threat for wildfire activity…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 27, 2023

October 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 27 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 27 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 29 2023

…Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding chances extend from the
Southern Plains through the Lower Ohio Valley…

…Moderate to locally heavy snow forecast across the Central Rockies this
weekend…

…Bitter early season cold snap expected across much of the Great Plains
and Rockies, while record-breaking warmth is found across the East and
Gulf Coast..

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 26, 2023

October 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 26 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 26 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023

…Significant early season winter storm continues from the Northern
Rockies through the Northern Plains Thursday, tapering off Friday…

…Heavy rainfall with the threat of scattered flash flooding for Southern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes…

…Much above average temperatures for the East as winter-like cold
spreads southward in the Northern/Central Plains…

 

cone graphic

Crop Report October 25, 2023 – The Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing has Some Concerning Yield and Production Trends

October 25, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

We are at the point now where crop progress may not be what is of most interest. The monthly Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing (It used to be called an Executive Briefing) may be more useful.  The full Briefing can be accessed HERE.  It is simply too long for me to snip that many images and publish them.  What I have done instead is select certain images that will be of most interest and present them instead of the usual crop Progress Report.  But I have included a link to the statistical part of the Weekly Crop Progress Report so that is also available to readers.

 

What is included in the Briefing is a combination of historical information and in most cases the current forecast for what the harvest will be like. In the full Briefing but not included in this article are slides that show how the forecasts have varied month by month and what the current forecast is and what other industry forecasts are. This Briefing is about crops not animals.

Of interest to me is the history of yields and also the history of actual production. In general, that data is concerning. I think most of the slides are self-explanatory so I have not included commentary on each slide.