Looking back at October for the World November 16, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest October Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

November 16, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report for October can be accessed HERE.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of October dating back to 1850 plus the same graphic for the year to date including October. The increase this October is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in October is shocking. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 16, 2023

November 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 16 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023 – 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023

…Heavy rainfall and threat for flash flooding across the eastern Florida
Peninsula today…

…Wet/unsettled weather for California through the rest of the week…

…Another mild day for the Midwest/Great Lakes today with high
temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 15, 2023

November 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 15 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023 – 12Z Fri Nov 17 2023

…Heavy rainfall and locally significant urban flash flooding will be a
major concern today and tonight for southeast Florida…

…Locally heavy snowfall expected today across portions of the Northern
Rockies…

…Unsettled weather remains in the forecast across much of California…

…Dry and mild conditions will continue across the Intermountain West,
Plains, and Midwest while gradually expanding toward the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast over the next couple of days…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 14, 2023

November 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 14 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023

…Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to continue to focus across
portions of the Gulf Coast states through the middle of the week…

…Very heavy rainfall and a threat of urban flash flooding will be a
concern for portions of southern Florida on Wednesday…

…Mild air will continue in place across much of the Intermountain West
and stretching east across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley this
week…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 13, 2023

November 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 13 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023

…Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to cross over the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states...

…Some accumulating snow expected for the higher elevations of the
Washington Cascades and Northern Rockies over the next few days…

…Mild air expected across much of the Intermountain West and stretching
east across large areas of the Plains and Midwest…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 12, 2023

November 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 12 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Texas…

…Light snow will develop over portions of the Northern Cascades and
Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday; light snow over Northern New
England on Monday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Upper Midwest…

Looking back at October for the United States November 11, 2023 – A Fairly Normal Month Except for the Mississippi River

November 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about October 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.

 

This is the U.S.  October temperature trend.  This past October was by no means a record but it was above the trend line. It was a relief in a way as recent months have been much above trend and record breakers so the factors that were causing that may have been short-term but in any event did not show up this October.  I am unable to compare this to the world trend as it is not yet available but will be soon.

Now I will present the information provided by John Bateman with perhaps one additional graphic also from NCEI.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 11, 2023

November 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 11 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023

…Heavy snow for the Northern Cascades and lighter amounts over parts of
the Northern Rockies…

…Snow for the western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan…

…High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory for parts of the Northern Cascades
and Northern Rockies on Saturday and Sunday…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on November 9, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

November 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations. That is concerning as some of the other Weather Advisory Organizations are predicting a higher probability for a “Historically Strong” El Nino.

We have included a link to an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker and a link to a fairly comprehensive article we wrote on El Nino back in September.  We have included some of the key graphics from both the Emily Becker Blog Post and the earlier article that I wrote and for those who have a strong interest in this El Nino winter, I recommend that you utilize the links to read both articles.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

” The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a “strong” El Niño (³ 1.5°C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024.  There is a 35% chance of this event becoming “historically strong” (³ 2.0°C) for the November-January season.  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024.”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. We see that this month there is a substantial chance of a “historically strong” event.

“The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4).  There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0C).  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.  Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons.  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. OND stands for October/November/December.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond MJJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are pretty similar.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 10, 2023

November 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 10 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023 – 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023

…Heavy snow for the Northern Cascades and lighter amounts over parts of
the Northern Rockies…

…Snow for the western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan…

…High wind watch for parts of the Northern Rockies on Saturday and
Sunday…