The polar vortex is acting up – January 24, 2024

January 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Last month there was some concern that we were having a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event. It seems that it did happen but in a fairly minor way and the resulting cold intrusions of Arctic air seem to have not lasted for very long. I came across this posted article on Climate.Gov attributed to Laura Cisto and Amy Butler. I am reproducing their article here except for the comments it received. You can access the article with the comments HERE. The comments are always quite interesting and the authors typically reply to those comments. And that process can continue for some time which is why I have provided the link to the Post by Laura Cisto and Amy Butler.

It is difficult reading and not everyone will want to dig into it but it is here for those with a deep interest in weather. Where I have comments, I have put them in boxes within the article. For those with an insatiable curiosity, THIS explanation of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events will probably quench your thirst.  The blog post that I have in this article describes a recent mini-SSW event that was somewhat unusual.

 

 

To read the full article you may need to click on “Read More”.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 24, 2024

January 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

…Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding for portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf states through Friday
morning…

…A swath of freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall will impact
portions of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast…

…Much milder air with temperatures surging well above normal can be
expected through the middle of the week for much of the eastern half of
the country..

Looking out a bit farther

 

Looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 23, 2024

January 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 23 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 25 2024

…Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding will exist through
Thursday morning across the Lower Mississippi Valley…

…A swath of freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall will impact
portions of the Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast…

…Much milder air with temperatures surging well above normal can be
expected by the middle of the week for much of the eastern half of the
country…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 22, 2024

January 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 22 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 24 2024

…More unsettled weather expected to impact the West Coast with heavy
rain impacting California today…

…Freezing rain across the central Plains this morning is expected to
rapidly spread northeastward into the Midwest today followed by another
round of freezing rain tonight from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes…

…Accumulating snowfall across the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday…

…A couple rounds of heavy rain will raise flooding potential across
eastern Texas today, expanding east into the lower Mississippi Valley
Tuesday into early Wednesday…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 21, 2024

January 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 21 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024

…Heavy precipitation moving across California today and again on
Monday…

…Heavy rain expected to develop over southern Texas later today,
shifting east into eastern Texas and Louisiana on Monday…

…Freezing rain and sleet to impact Oklahoma and Kansas this evening,
spreading into the Midwest on Monday, following by wet snow across the
upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Colorado River Basin January 17, 2024 Water Supply Forecast Discussion – Posted January 20, 2024

January 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on January 17, 2024.  The situation is not very good. However due to a wet winter last winter, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape. 

 

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Most of the information presented in this part of the article is from a summary report (Link) issued by the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. January 17, 2023, Water Supply Forecast Discussion
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). It is one of many similar organizations within the National Weather Service. They are all different. In the future, I will try to pay more attention to some of the other River Forecasting Centers but they do not all go out of their way to provide reports to the Media. But the Colorado River is a special situation in a way due to the problems complying with the Colorado River Compact. But all our rivers are important.

At this time of the year,  we are hopefully adding to the snowpack for future snowmelt. Additional information is available on the Center website (click HERE), there are certain graphics that update daily. And now I provide the main part of their new forecast discussion summary. I am copying directly from their document. My comments are in boxes.

 

 

The CBRFC weather forecast is for a changing weather pattern.  For updated weather forecasts go to econcurrents.com 

and look for the most recent Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks article in the list of Recent Posts.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 20, 2024

January 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 22 2024

…Heavy rain expected to impact northern to central California today and
early Monday, with heavy wet snow along the Sierra Nevada…

…More freezing rain is forecast for the Columbia River Basin…

…Arctic air will dominate the eastern two-thirds of the country with
lake-effect and upslope snows remaining active today…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on January 18, 2024 – Winners and Losers. Rapid Changes in ENSO Phases

January 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Lightly Edited at 7:38 pm EST January 20, 2024

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. Thus there are some changes from what was issued last month.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for February.

It will be updated on the last day of January.

 

 

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different, particularly with respect to precipitation.  This tells us that March and April will be different than February to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through February/March/April of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for February and the three-month period Feb/Mar/Apr.  Small maps are provided beyond that through April of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article.  For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 19, 2024

January 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 19 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024

…Another arctic air intrusion spreading into much of the central to
eastern U.S….

…Heavy precipitation moving into much of California for the weekend with
heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada…

…Significant icing possible today and early Sunday through the Columbia
River Gorge in the Pacific Northwest…

…Accumulating snows spreading from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic…

…Lake-effect snows remain active into Saturday…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 18, 2024

January 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 18 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024

…Heavy mountain snows for the Northwest/Rockies; additional ice over the
Columbia Basin…

…Bands of heavy lake-effect snow continue for the Great Lakes with
hazardous snow across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic by Friday…

…Another Arctic blast expected late this week…
 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.