weather

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 30 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region with a second area over parts of the Upper Midwest on
Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday…

A wave of low pressure along a front over the Southern High Plains will
move northeastward to eastern Quebec, Canada, by Friday. Ahead of the
front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A warm front over Northern New England will
move northeastward into Southeastern Canada by Thursday. Ahead of the warm
front, rain will develop over parts of Northern New England, ending by
Wednesday evening.

On Wednesday, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into
the Upper Great Lakes, creating showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop ahead of the front over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and
Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast from
Tuesday into Wednesday. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Thursday
morning. In addition, there is an increased threat of EF2 � EF5
tornadoes over the areas.

Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front over
parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mississippi Valley and parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to
the Lower Mississippi Valley will decrease to strong to severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes to the Lower
Mississippi Valley from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys from Thursday to Friday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition,
onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will produce showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast and Florida.

Moreover, the wave of low pressure will pull cold air over parts of the
Upper Midwest, producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of Minnesota,
extreme northern Wisconsin, and the western portions of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. All these areas will be near Lake Superior on
Thursday, tapering off by Friday.

Meanwhile, another front will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
California on Wednesday, dissipating by Thursday evening. From late
Wednesday morning into Friday, the system will produce rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into Northern/Central
California. On Thursday, the snow will become moderate to heavy over parts
of the Southern Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies on
Tuesday…

…Temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees above average over parts of the
Central Plains to the Great Lake/Ohio Valley…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday…

A wave of low pressure along a front over the Great Basin/Central Rockies
will move northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Thursday. Ahead
of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees above average over
parts of the Central Plains to the Great Lake/Ohio Valley. A warm front
extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley moves
northeastward into Eastern Canada by Wednesday. Ahead of the warm front,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes,
ending by Tuesday afternoon. On Tuesday evening, rain will develop over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.

On Tuesday, a wave of low pressure will produce moderate to heavy snow
over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and higher elevations of the
eastern Great Basin. Rain will also develop over parts of the lower
elevations of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies.

Moreover, weak onshore flow off the Pacific will produce rain over parts
of the Pacific Northwest through late Tuesday evening. Light snow will
continue on Wednesday over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through
late Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday
into Wednesday. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Thursday morning.

Further, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into the
Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday, creating showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
strong to severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to
Central/Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Wednesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over these areas from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front parts of
the Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Central/Southern Plains from
Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Elsewhere, another front will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
California on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The system will
produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into
Northern/Central California.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 28 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies on
Tuesday…

…Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley…

…There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday…

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Great Basin and Southern
California will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great
Lakes southwestward to the Southern High Plains by Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of
the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

In the wake of the front, onshore flow off the Pacific will produce rain
over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Tuesday night.
In addition, scattered light snow will develop over the highest elevations
of the Cascades, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the Northern Intermountain
Region, and the Great Basin through Wednesday. Lower-elevation rain will
also develop over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Northern/Central Rockies.

Further, intensifying upper-level energy over the Four Corners Region will
aid in producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies and higher elevations of the eastern Great Basin on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
rain over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Monday. On Tuesday, the
atmosphere along the Western Gulf Coast will become more unstable, so
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Western Gulf
Coast. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce rain over
parts of Florida on Monday. On Tuesday, the atmosphere will become more
unstable, so showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida.

Moreover, moist air will pool ahead of the front over the Great Lakes on
Monday, creating showers and thunderstorms. Rain will develop over parts
of the Northeast on Tuesday into Wednesday morning and also over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

Additionally, moisture will pool along the boundary over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to Central/Southern Plains, producing
strong to severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley to Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 27 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

…Scattered light rain will develop over the Carolinas…

…Rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Northeast Sunday
night…

…Rain moves into the Northwest and light snow over the higher elevations
of the Western States…

A front lingering along the Gulf Coast States will slowly dissipate by
Monday. Upper-level impulses over the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys
will produce scattered rain over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley
through late Sunday morning. In addition, upper-level dynamics will
develop light rain over parts of the Carolinas early Sunday through early
Monday morning. Furthermore, onshore flow off the Atlantic will create
scattered rain over parts of Florida from Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest will move inland to the
Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains and then to the Southwest
by Tuesday. The storm will produce rain over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and Northern California through Sunday afternoon. Onshore flow
off the Pacific will produce rain over the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Monday night. As the front passes over the Northwest
into the Great Basin, scattered light snow will develop over the highest
elevations of the Cascades, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the Northern
Intermountain Region, and the Great Basin through Tuesday.

As the leading edge of the boundary moves into the Upper Midwest, rain
with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes
from Monday evening into Tuesday. Furthermore, ahead of the front,
temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over the Plains.

Elsewhere, a front will move southward out of Central Canada on Sunday,
advancing into the Northeast by Sunday evening and then out over the
Atlantic. This front will produce scattered rain and snow over the higher
elevations of the Northeast through early Monday morning.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 25 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 27 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi/ Ohio
Valleys…

…Rain over parts of the Northeast…

…Rain moves into the Pacific Northwest…

A wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move
northeastward off the Northeast Coast by Saturday evening. The system will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through Friday evening. The system will also
create rain over parts of the Great Lakes through Saturday afternoon.
Overnight Friday, scattered rain will develop over parts of the Northeast
through early Sunday morning. Moreover, scattered rain will develop along
the front over the Southern Mid-Atlantic from Saturday evening into
Sunday. Rain will also grow over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley
from early Saturday into Sunday.

Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest Friday
night and inland through Sunday morning. The storm will produce rain over
parts of the Pacific Northwest late Friday night. The rain will continue
to inch farther inland on Saturday, moving into Northern California late
Saturday night and continuing into Sunday.

Elsewhere, onshore flow off the Atlantic will trigger scattered rain over
parts of Florida from Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 24 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024 – 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024

…Pleasant weather continues across most of the country through the end
of the week…

…Well above-average temperatures continue over the Central and Southern
U.S…

A quiet and relatively uneventful fall weather pattern will continue to be
in place across the continental U.S. through the end of the week, with
high pressure keeping mainly sunny skies in place across the Central and
Eastern U.S. and the warm conditions continuing across the Plains and
southern tier states. A cold front approaching the East Coast will herald
the arrival of more autumnal temperatures for Thursday with highs falling
10 to 20 degrees for many areas from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast
compared to Wednesday. Even warmer conditions are likely for the central
and southern Plains to close out the work week, with highs running up to
20 degrees above normal for late October, with the potential for
additional record highs.

In terms of precipitation prospects, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are likely for the Midwest states ahead of the next cold front dropping
south across the Northern Plains on Thursday and into Thursday night. A
more concentrated corridor of heavier rainfall is expected from eastern
Iowa to northern Illinois on Thursday, with the potential for a few strong
thunderstorms in the warm sector of the surface low. There may also be a
few showers in easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula. Out West, some
showers and high elevation snow are expected from eastern Idaho to Wyoming
and southern Montana with a shortwave upper trough moving through the
region. Looking ahead to Friday, onshore flow ahead of a Pacific cold
front will lead to light to moderate rain developing across western Oregon
and Washington, but not considered an atmospheric river event.

The combination of very warm conditions, dry grounds, and increased winds
across the Central Plains will raise the potential for wildfires, based on
the SPC fire weather outlook on Thursday. There may also be some fire
weather concerns across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast on
Thursday in the wake of a dry cold front, with dry conditions and gusty
winds developing.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 23 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 – 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024

…Very pleasant weather continues across most of the country through the
end of the week…

…Well above-average temperatures continue over the Central and Eastern
U.S…

A quiet and relatively uneventful fall weather pattern will be in place
across the continental U.S. through early Friday, with high pressure
keeping mainly sunny skies in place across the Central and Eastern U.S.
and the very pleasant conditions continuing. Temperatures will once again
be quite mild and feel more like September across much of the East Coast
region on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which will herald the arrival
of more autumnal temperatures for Thursday with highs falling 10 to 20
degrees for many areas from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Even
warmer conditions are likely for the central and southern Plains to close
out the work week, with highs running up to 20 degrees above normal for
late October, with the potential for a few record highs.

In terms of precipitation prospects, some light showers are possible
across portions of the Great Lakes region and into New England ahead of
the cold front where forcing for ascent will be greatest, and remaining
dry farther to the south given a paucity of moisture and lack of dynamics.
A second area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely for the
Midwest states ahead of the next cold front dropping south across the
Northern Plains on Thursday and into Thursday night. There may also be a
few showers in easterly flow across the Florida Peninsula. Out West, some
showers and high elevation snow are expected from eastern Oregon to the
Northern Rockies with a shortwave upper trough moving through the region.

The combination of very warm conditions, dry grounds, and increased winds
across the Central Plains will raise the potential for wildfires, based on
the SPC fire weather outlook on Thursday. The same holds true for
portions of southern New England on Wednesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 21 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 21 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024

…Lingering scattered thunderstorm activity for the Central/Southern
Plains today…

…Cool and rainy across the Northwest today…

…Well above average temperatures in the northern tier spreads south…

A previously quasi-stationary front draped along the Central/Southern High
Plains will kick out into the Great Plains today beneath a weakening
upper-level low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur over
portions of eastern Nebraska and Kansas as a result with a Marginal Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms present. A somewhat slow moving upper trough over
the eastern Pacific will produce cool temperatures and light rain showers
for much of the Northwest today.

An upper ridge and approaching northern stream trough will generate well
above average temperatures across much of the northern tier states today.
Temperatures in the 70s and 80s will represent 20-30 degree positive
anomalies for portions of the Upper Midwest. High temperature records
along the Northeast Coast may be tied or broken today.