Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 26, 2024

May 26, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 26 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 26 2024 – 12Z Tue May 28 2024

…Severe weather and heavy rain chances shift into the Mid-Mississippi,
Ohio and Tennessee valleys today before progressing into the Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast, and Gulf Coast on Memorial Day…

…Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across parts
of Texas, the western Gulf Coast, and southern Florida…

…Active weather returns to the southern Plains on Tuesday with
additional chances for severe weather and flash flooding…

An organizing storm system over the central U.S. is responsible for
numerous thunderstorms stretching from Kansas/Missouri to the Edwards
Plateau of Texas. Boundaries aiding this convection include a dryline
extending southward through the southern Plains and a slowly lifting warm
front stretching from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley. Current
storms are expected to grow upscale and merge into a larger complex of
thunderstorms by morning while swinging through parts of Missouri,
Illinois, western Kentucky, and neighboring states. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Additionally, heavy rain may lead
to scattered instances of flash flooding with this initial burst of
thunderstorms. By the afternoon hours another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front and impact
similar regions, with the severe threat shifting further east across the
Ohio Valley overnight. More chances for all modes of severe weather are
possible, with repeating storms potentially increasing the flash flooding
threat throughout parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Area of heavy rain may
also lead to flash flooding concerns near the low pressure center as it
progresses toward southern Wisconsin tonight.

As the center of the storm system enters the Great Lakes on Monday and the
attached cold front extends from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains,
severe weather and heavy rain chances will focus along the eastern U.S.
and Gulf Coast States. More specifically, the greatest chances for intense
rainfall rates leading to flash flooding exists across eastern
Pennsylvania and neighboring section of southeast New York and northwest
New Jersey, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect on Memorial Day. Severe thunderstorms are most likely across the
Mid-Atlantic as well as an area stretching from the Lower Mississippi
Valley to the Southeast. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
potential hazards. Residents and visitors planning to enjoy outdoor
holiday barbecues and parties should remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings.

Oppressive and potentially dangerous heat is set to continue for at least
the next few days throughout parts of southern Texas, the lower
Mississippi Valley, and southern Florida. Highs are expected to reach well
into the 90s for the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast, with triple
digits across southern portions of Texas. Elevated humidity levels will
make it feel even hotter, with heat indices approaching 115 degrees. Daily
record highs are also possible in this region and extending to southern
Florida as well through Tuesday. Residents and visitors are urged to
follow proper heat safety by staying hydrated, taking breaks inside
buildings with air conditioning, as well as checking on the vulnerable
population. Above average and summer-like temperatures will also extend
towards the eastern U.S. today as well before slightly cooler weather
arrives behind a cold front on Tuesday. Conversely, a warm up is on the
way throughout the West as upper ridging builds and spreads highs into the
70s and 80s for the northern Great Basin and northern High Plains.

Meanwhile, the next round of active weather is set to impact the southern
Plains on Tuesday as a lingering frontal boundary and favorable upper jet
dynamics spark developing thunderstorms from western Oklahoma/Kansas to
Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, which is highlighted by a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall throughout central and north-central Texas, as well as southern
Oklahoma. Some storms in the southern High Plains may also become strong
enough to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 25, 2024

May 25, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat May 25 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 25 2024 – 12Z Mon May 27 2024

…Dangerous severe weather threat forecast across parts of the
central/southern Plains through tonight before the potential for strong
storms shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys on Sunday…

…Extreme fire weather expected for south-central New Mexico with
critical fire weather throughout much of the southern Rockies/High Plains
today…

…Simmering heat continues across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and
southern Florida through Memorial Day…

The start of this Memorial Day weekend will feature yet another round of
severe weather impacting the central United States as the next storm
system strengthens across the central Plains. A textbook Great Plains
severe weather setup is expected as a warm front lifts to the central
Plains and middle Mississippi Valley while a sharp dryline extends south
of the low into the southern Plains. Discrete supercells are anticipated
to develop this evening in response to an ejecting shortwave out of the
Rockies as aforementioned surface boundaries provide a focus for
developing thunderstorms. A few supercells may be capable of intense
tornadoes, with giant hail and destructive winds also expected. By
tonight, thunderstorms are expected to merge into clusters and potentially
bow echos as they push eastward towards the Ozarks. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe thunderstorms in
parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and far southwest Missouri. Additionally,
storms are expected to contain intense rainfall rates that could lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding from the central/southern Plains to
the mid-Mississippi Valley into tonight. The low pressure system and
associated storminess are expected to shift eastward on Sunday into
portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts are the most
likely hazards as a complex of thunderstorms progress from Missouri to
Kentucky, as well as the possibility of flash flooding, hail, and a few
tornadoes. The Memorial Day finale for this spring storm system will
impact the eastern U.S. on Monday as low pressure swings into the Great
Lakes and a strong cold front extends along the Appalachians. Showers and
storms may dampen outdoor barbecues, while also containing frequent
lighting, have rain, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors should remain
weather aware this holiday weekend and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.

West of the dryline today throughout the southern High Plains and southern
Rockies will exist extremely critical fire weather conditions. Low
relative humidity, gusty winds, and dry vegetation could lead to any newly
formed fires to spread rapidly. Red Flag Warnings span throughout all of
New Mexico, southeast Arizona, western Texas, and the western Oklahoma
Panhandle.

The temperature outlook for this weekend includes above average
temperatures leading to a summer-like feel for much of the eastern U.S.,
Mid-South, and central/southern Plains as heat also begins to build back
into the West by Memorial Day. Cooler temperatures are forecast to remain
over the Rockies, Northwest, and north-central United States. Heat will
reach oppressive levels across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern
Florida, with heat indices into the triple digits and the potential for
daily record highs. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across South
Texas due to heat indices rising to around 115 degrees, which could be
dangerous for those spending extended amounts of time outdoors.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 24, 2024

May 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 24 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 24 2024 – 12Z Sun May 26 2024

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the Midwest to
the southern Plains today…

…Next round of severe weather to develop across the central/southern
Plains Saturday evening before shifting into parts of the mid-Mississippi
and Ohio valleys on Sunday…

…Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across South
Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial Day weekend…

The relentlessly active spring weather pattern is set to continue through
the holiday weekend as two separate systems are anticipated to be
responsible for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the middle of
the Nation. An initial low pressure system deepening over the northern
Plains today, while an attached cold front extends from the Upper Midwest
to the Southern Plains, should maintain a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, cold air aloft on the backside of
the strong system could allow for snow to mix with rain across parts of
North Dakota. Along the cold front as it extends southward, storms could
turn severe from the Midwest to the southern Plains, with the greatest
potential for tornadoes across central to northern Illinois, far eastern
Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. This same cold front could slow it’s forward
progress and allow for thunderstorms to potentially train across parts of
southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northeast Texas, leading to the
threat of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms may
dampen outdoors plans throughout the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

The next shortwave to eject out of the western U.S. and into the Great
Plains is expected to spark the next round of severe weather late on
Saturday in the central/southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure
forming in the lee of the central Rockies is forecast to lift a warm front
northward to the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, while a sharp
dryline extends southward into the southern Plains. These features
combined with a strengthening low-level jet will allow for storms to turn
severe, containing a risk for large hail, intense rainfall rates, a few
tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of
Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri in order to highlight the threat.
As clusters of storms move eastward with the system on Sunday, the flash
flooding and severe weather will shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
valleys. Tornadoes, hail, strong winds, and flash flooding will be
possible. Residents and visitors located within the threat for severe
weather this weekend are urged to have multiple ways of receiving warnings
and to continue to check for the latest forecast.

Elsewhere, heat remains the main weather story along the Gulf Coast, South
Texas, and southern Florida. The hottest locations are forecast throughout
South Texas into late this weekend as highs soar above the century mark,
with heat indices up to 120 degrees possible. Temperatures into the upper
90s are anticipated to spread into much of Texas on Saturday and Sunday as
well. High heat indices will also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region
and South Florida, while also potentially breaking a few record high
temperatures. Warm overnight conditions will also provide little to no
relief for those without adequate or reliable cooling.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 23, 2024

May 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 23 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 23 2024 – 12Z Sat May 25 2024

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats across the Arklatex region today
will expand northward across the northern and central Plains tonight…

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats will shift east into the Midwest
and remain across the Arklatex region on Friday…

…Heavy snow expected today across the higher elevations of the northern
Rockies…

As a low pressure system continues to move further away from the Great
Lakes into southeastern Canada, showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
associated cold front will push farther eastward across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states today. Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the
front will become nearly stationary across the Mid-South where the focus
of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will be the greatest today. These
thunderstorms may reform across the Arklatex region as the frontal
boundary meanders in the vicinity, along with the arrival of some
additional lifting mechanisms from an upper-level jet stream from the
west-southwest. The jet stream winds will tend to carry the showers and
storms downstream across the Mid-South toward the Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic states, keeping the weather unsettled for these areas through
the next couple of days with modest rainfall amounts although locally
heavy rain can be expected in some of the embedded thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, a rather deep and compact upper-level low from Alaska a couple
of days ago is now sweeping across the northwestern U.S. This system will
continue to usher a cold air mass through the western U.S. with a round of
heavy wet snow across the higher-elevations of Idaho, western Montana, and
into northwestern/northern Wyoming today. The energy from this system
will help develop another low pressure system across the northern and
central High Plains today. The low pressure system is forecast to further
intensify on Friday as the upper low exits into northern Plains and begins
to lift toward the northeast. Another round of showers and possibly
severe thunderstorms will develop and expand across many locations up and
down the Great Plains later today, and will begin to lift east and
northeastward into the Midwest, and along the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. A swath of cold rain is forecast across North Dakota,
southeastern Montana, and into northwestern Minnesota as the low pressure
center tracks just to the south. Temperatures could be cold enough for
some wet snow to mix in with the rain later tonight near the Canadian
border. Increasingly strong and gusty winds will also add to the chill as
the low pressure system intensifies and wraps the precipitation around the
center of circulation. By Saturday morning, the showers and storms should
progress into the Great Lakes and down across the Midwest ahead of and
near the cold/occluded fronts. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms
will linger across the Mid-South into the Southeast where the old front
lingers.

Across southern Texas an early-season heat wave is forecast to gradually
intensify through the next few days into the Memorial Day weekend. Record
or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no
relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend,
record daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees in
South Texas will also be possible. Check local media and government
websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you
encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable
generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a
generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed space! Finally, a
critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies into the
southern High Plains per the Storm Prediction Center.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 22 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 22 2024 – 12Z Fri May 24 2024

…Deep storm begins to move away from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes today
as the next heavy rain and severe weather threats emerge across the
southern Plains toward the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley tonight…

…Heavy wet snow expected to overspread the higher elevations of the
northern Rockies tonight into Thursday...

…Another rapidly developing low pressure system will bring severe
weather and heavy rain threats into the Thursday night into Friday
morning…

An active weather pattern continues from the western U.S. to the Great
Plains where unsettled and changeable weather can be expected for at least
the next couple of days. Residents across the upper Midwest into the
upper Great Lakes will wake up this morning with a rapidly intensifying
low-pressure system passing through. Much of the heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms associated with the system are already moving into southern
Canada as the storm center continues to take a north-northeasterly track
across the western end of Lake Superior and heading quickly toward
southern Canada. Blustery winds behind the departing storm will take
extra time to subside today across the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.
As the heavy rain and thunderstorms associated with the deep storm exit
the upper Midwest, the southern Plains will need to watch for an emerging
threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms where the trailing front
from the deep storm becomes nearly stationary. The most active weather
can be expected tonight as well as Thursday night from the southern Plains
toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with a lull in the activities
Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, the next energetic upper low, which had a history of diving
southeast from Alaska, is getting ready to reach the Pacific Northwest.
The system will bring a round of widespread precipitation through the
Northwest, with heavy wet snow falling across the higher elevations of
Idaho, western Montana, and into Wyoming for tonight and into Thursday.
The system will also usher a cold air mass through the Northwest by
Thursday, reaching into the northern Plains by Friday morning. Windy
conditions are also expected to overspread the entire area, especially
immediately behind a sharp cold front.

Elsewhere, relatively quiet weather is expected across the Southwest.
Meanwhile, very warm to hot weather is expected across much of the eastern
U.S. today before showers and thunderstorms quickly move into the interior
sections later today. The Mid-Atlantic states will see these showers and
embedded thunderstorms move in tonight and linger into Thursday as the
front becomes nearly stationary across the region. Additional moisture
from the South is forecast to ride along the front, bringing rounds of
showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic into
Friday morning.

Across southern Texas, the heat is forecast to gradually intensify through
the next few days, with heat indices possibly topping 110 degrees by
Thursday afternoon. Residents across southern Florida will also feel the
heat getting more oppressive as the week progresses due to gradually
increasing humidity under the influence of a high pressure ridge with fair
weather conditions.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 21, 2024

May 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue May 21 2024
Valid 12Z Tue May 21 2024 – 12Z Thu May 23 2024

…An increasing threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall as well
as high winds expected to overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest
today through tonight and into Wednesday morning…

…Severe weather and heavy rain threat will emerge across the southern
Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…Cool conditions with periods of shower and high elevation snow chances
from the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest…

…Well above average temperatures across the central Plains will be
replaced by cooler conditions but summer-like weather expected to continue
across the southern Plains to the Northeast…

A persistent weather pattern will continue to send energetic and
fast-moving weather systems onshore from the Pacific Ocean into the
Northwest through the short-range forecast period. These systems will
tend to intensify as they reach into the mid-section of the country. One
such system is developing and tracking toward the northeast across the
central Plains this morning. The threat of severe weather and heavy rain
will be expanding toward the upper Midwest by tonight along with
increasingly windy conditions when the low pressure system is forecast to
become quite deep and intense. Thunderstorms that erupt ahead of a potent
cold front may contain damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few
tornadoes, from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, and especially over
Iowa, where the Storm prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of
severe thunderstorms for later today. Heavy rain may also lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding through tonight across the upper
Midwest. The center of the system will begin to move into southern Canada
by Wednesday morning with the heavy rain threat quickly decreasing across
the Great Lakes but the winds will take extra time to subside there.

As the low pressure system begins to move away into southern Canada on
Wednesday, the trailing cold front will become nearly stationary across
the southern Plains where the next phase of severe weather and excessive
rainfall is forecast to emerge. It appears that these threats will expand
toward the mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday night where thunderstorms will
tend to become slow-moving.

Meanwhile, cool and unsettled weather underneath a broad upper trough is
anticipated to remain locked-in over the Northwest and Rockies through at
least midweek. Snow is possible into the higher elevations of Wyoming and
Colorado today. Another upper trough will then bring the next round of
mountain snows and low-elevation rain into the Northwest on Wednesday
before overspreading the northern Rockies by early on Thursday where snow
levels could drop to around 7000 feet. High temperatures in these regions
are also expected to remain on the cooler side and 10 to 25 degrees below
average.

For areas south and east of the main storm system impacting the central
U.S. this week, highs are expected to soar above average and into
potentially record-breaking territory for certain spots. Widespread highs
into the 80s and low 90s are forecast from the Midwest and Deep South to
the Northeast through Wednesday, with mid-to-upper 90s and triple digits
in parts of South Texas and the southern High Plains. This heat could be
particularly dangerous for people dealing with a loss of power in parts of
Texas. Warm overnight temperatures will offer little relief and high
humidity could also lead to heat index readings over 110 degrees.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Let’s take a look at the Weather in April 2024 in the U.S. and Globally – Posted on May 20, 2024

May 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Much of the information in this report comes from the monthly emails I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John Bateman produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. At the end of the article, I provide links that will get you to the full reports and much additional information.

 

Looking at the trend for April over time.

This is the temperature trend for April in CONUS.

But look at this the most recent 25 years.  No increase but a decrease.  Data can be misleading if you do not look at it carefully

The temperature for the world, land and water hit a new record.

The temperature for the world, land only also was  a record.

The temperature for the world’s oceans also hit a record. Notice the slope is less. You can see the impact of ENSO in this graphic.

To read the rest of this article some will have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 20, 2024

May 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 20 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 20 2024 – 12Z Wed May 22 2024

…Continued severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
central U.S. into mid-week…

…Cool conditions with periods of shower and storm chances from the
Rockies to the Pacific Northwest…

…Well above average, Summer-like temperatures to start the week across
much of the central/eastern U.S….

An energetic upper-level pattern featuring multiple shortwaves emitting
from a broader long-wave trough over the western U.S. will continue a
period of active weather over the central U.S. this week. An initial
shortwave/accompanying surface frontal system will bring showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region by early
Monday. A few more robust thunderstorms will be possible immediately ahead
of the wave over northeastern Illinois and adjacent Wisconsin/Indiana,
where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5) for the threat of some damaging winds and large hail.
Some locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will also be
possible. Further west, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High
Plains as the long-wave trough further amplifies, helping to reinforce a
frontal boundary draped across the region. Moist upslope flow north of
this boundary is expected to lead to thunderstorms by Monday afternoon,
with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) over northeastern
Colorado and southwestern Nebraska as some of the more robust storms may
produce very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
A broader Slight Risk extends northeastward along the front through the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Increasing storm coverage Monday
evening with the potential for some locally heavy downpours will also
bring the threat for some isolated flash flooding from northeastern
Colorado northeast into northwestern Iowa. Moisture spreading
northwestward into portions of the northern High Plains/Rockies will bring
moderate precipitation chances here as well, with some locally heavy
snowfall totals possible for higher mountain elevations.

Another shortwave ejecting from the longwave western trough will bring a
broader, greater chance for severe weather and flash flooding to portions
of the Midwest Tuesday. The accompanying surface low pressure/frontal
system will deepen and lift northeastward from the Plains into the Upper
Midwest, with an expansive warm sector from the Southern Plains
northeastward through the Lower Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
Both supercells and more organized convective systems are expected amidst
strengthening low and upper-level wind fields and strong instability. An
Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place for the threat of tornadoes,
some strong, significant damaging winds, and large hail. In addition, a
deep influx of moisture as well as the strong forcing associated with the
deep surface low will help to promote heavy downpours. With more numerous
storms expected in vicinity of the surface low, a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued for portions of central/southern
Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin for the risk of some scattered
instances of flash flooding. Lingering shower and thunderstorm chances
will also extend back west through the central Plains into the
central/northern Rockies.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms will remain possible over the Florida
Peninsula through at least Tuesday. An upper-low/frontal system dropping
southward from northwestern Canada will spread showers and storms into the
Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin Tuesday, with some locally heavy
rainfall possible along the coastal ranges and Cascades. A broad area of
well above average temperatures is expected over much of the
central/eastern U.S. with ridging in place ahead of the trough over the
West. Highs in the 80s and even low 90s will be common, even in more
northerly locations from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Sweltering
heat continues over portions of southern Texas into the southern High
Plains as highs soar into the 90s and 100s. In contrast, much cooler,
below average temperatures are expected to the north and west of the
system over the Plains under the influence of the western trough. Highs
from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin, northern/central Rockies,
and northern/central Plains will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs will be
closer to average in the Southwest with 80s and 90s forecast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 19, 2024

May 19, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 19 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 19 2024 – 12Z Tue May 21 2024

…Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
Central U.S. into early next week…

…Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas while
expanding into the southern High Plains…

An energetic upper-level pattern will bring a couple rounds of storms to
the central U.S. for Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, moist return flow
following a warm front moving northward through the Plains and ahead of a
dryline over the High Plains will provide more than enough instability to
trigger robust thunderstorm development over the Central Plains.
Increasing upper-level winds will promote supercells with the threat of
large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms are also expected to grow upscale
into one or more organized convective systems, bringing a heightened
threat for potentially widespread, significant damaging winds later Sunday
evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk
of severe weather (level 4/5). Storm chances will shift northeastward into
the Upper Midwest overnight Sunday and into the Great Lakes by Monday
following an initial upper-wave/accompanying surface frontal system. An
amplifying long-wave trough over the West will help to enhance lee
cyclogenesis over the High Plains bringing another chance of storms to the
Central Plains/Missouri Valley by Monday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center has included a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some more
damaging winds and large hail, and possibly a tornado. Some locally heavy
downpours will also be possible, particularly from the Central Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday and the Central Plains once again
Monday, with an isolated chance of flash flooding.

The active upper-level pattern will also bring some precipitation chances
to the Northern/Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin over the next
couple of days. Rainfall should generally remain light to moderate, though
some locally heavier storms will be possible especially over Wyoming on
Monday. Some snow is expected for higher mountain elevations. To the east,
an area of low pressure lingering just off the Atlantic coast of the
Southeast with a trailing frontal boundary moving through Florida will
bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday. Storm chances
will decrease overnight Sunday and into the day Monday from north to south
as the front pushes southward, expected to clear the coast by Tuesday
morning.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
from southern Texas into the southern High Plains the next couple of days.
Highs in the 90s with high humidity values for areas closer to the coast
will bring heat indices into the 105-110 degree range, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for South Florida Sunday. While not as humid,
temperatures will soar into the 100s further inland into west Texas/the
southern High Plains. Some record-tying/breaking temperatures are
possible. While not as hot, conditions will still be well above average
more broadly across the central/eastern U.S. Highs in 80s will be common,
even into more northerly locations like the Great Lakes and the interior
Northeast. One exception will be where onshore flow keeps things a bit
cooler along the East Coast, with highs in the 60s and 70s expected from
coastal New England south into the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Carolinas.
Highs over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will remain cool Sunday
behind a cold front, with highs in the 50s and 60s. These cooler
temperatures will spread southward into the Great Basin Monday. Highs in
the 80s and 90s are forecast south of the front over the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on May 18, 2024

May 18, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The most recent observations indicate that the El Niño has further weakened, and a weak indication of a La Niña is emerging. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to decay and a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the occurrence timing and amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published yesterday which can be accessed HERE.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on May 14 close to when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of May 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for June, July, and August 2024.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is cold and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas.  You no longer can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the JJA image but look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON also show La Nina but are increasingly to the west and may not be in the Nino 3.4 measurement area.  I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. coasts which probably explains their forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.