Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 30, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 30 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 30 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 01 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the higher
elevations of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona…

…Snow over parts of the Upper Great Lakes…

…There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Saturday…

An upper-level low will develop off the Central California Coast on
Saturday, moving inland to the Southwest by Monday. The circulation around
the low will stream moisture inland over parts of Southern California and
other parts of the West. Rain and higher-elevation snow will spread over
parts of California. The flow of moisture will create heavy rain over
parts of Southern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.

In addition, the moisture will aid in creating heavy snow over the Sierra
Nevada Mountains and the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado,
Utah, and Arizona through Monday.

On Sunday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly to a
Moderate Risk over parts of Southern California and Arizona through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff and burn scars.
Further, rain will continue over parts of Southeastern California and
Arizona through Monday.

Furthermore, low pressure over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys will move eastward off the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday
morning. The energy will produce snow over the Upper Great Lakes through
Sunday morning. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday. The SPC has issued
a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, strong to
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Elsewhere, low pressure over Eastern Canada will slowly move northeastward
farther into Canada by Saturday evening. Light snow will linger over parts
of Northern Maine through Saturday afternoon.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 29, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Mar 29 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 29 2024 – 12Z Sun Mar 31 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the higher
elevations of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and Northern Maine…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Upper Midwest…

…There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Friday and Saturday and Northern Maine on Friday…

An upper-level low will develop off the Northwest Coast and move southward
to off Southern California by Sunday. The circulation around the low will
stream moisture inland over parts of Southern California and other parts
of the West. Coastal rain will develop over parts of the Pacific
Northwest, and rain/higher-elevation snow will spread over parts of
California. By Friday afternoon, the flow of moisture will create heavy
rain over parts of Southern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

In addition, the moisture will aid in creating heavy snow over the Sierra
Nevada Mountains and the higher elevations of Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah
through Sunday. Moreover, the heavy rain will continue over Southern
California on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Saturday
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern Tier States will move
eastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Sunday. The energy
will produce light to moderate snow over the Northern Tier States into the
Great Lakes through Sunday. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley by Friday evening into Sunday. Along the rain/snow line, a few
pockets of light rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes late Friday night into Saturday.

Meanwhile, low pressure off the Northeast Coast will move northward into
Eastern Canada by Saturday evening. Moisture will stream along the
Northeast Coast, creating heavy rain along the Maine Coast. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Maine Coast through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Further, the energy associated with the low will help produce heavy snow
over parts of Northern Maine through Saturday morning. Snow will linger
over Northern Maine through Sunday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 28, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 28 2024 – 12Z Sat Mar 30 2024

…Rainy, stormy weather continues along the East Coast through today,
lingering in New England Friday…

…Unsettled weather for the West, with a late season Atmospheric River
impacting California Friday…

…Warming trend begins over Central U.S. today…

Two slow moving frontal boundaries will continue to push towards the East
Coast today, with the leading front pushing into the Atlantic by early
afternoon and the second front slowing approaching the coast while
weakening through this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through today along the East Coast but taper off from south to
north as the leading front exits. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
over portions of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and coastal New England, which
may cause isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. The highest
risk for flash flooding will be over eastern North Carolina and far
southeastern Virginia as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal
boundary today, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) for this area. Precipitation chances will likely linger through
Friday for portions of New England as low pressure strengthens just east
of the region. Colder air moving in from the north will allow rain to
switch to wintry mixed precipitation and snow overnight into Friday for
inland areas. Winds will also become gusty in the Northeast on Friday and
Saturday as the low strengthens and the pressure gradient tightens.

Meanwhile, a frontal system will push southeast across much of the West
with unsettled weather today into Friday. Mountain snow and low elevation
rain will impact the region, and locally heavy snow will be possible for
regional mountain ranges from the Pacific Northwest southward into
northern/central California, as well as for the eastern Great Basin into
the northern/central Rockies. Low pressure associated with the
southeastward moving frontal system will push into the northern and
central Plains on Friday and reach the Great Lakes region by Saturday
morning. This will bring chances for wintry precipitation to the Upper
Midwest and northern Great Lakes and chances for showers and thunderstorms
to portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

On Friday afternoon, a Pacific low pressure system will approach the
California coast. This system will aim a plume of moisture (an atmospheric
river) at central and southern California Friday night into Saturday,
which will result in heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding. There
is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for portions of coastal
southern California on Friday and Saturday where upslope flow along
terrain will likely enhance rainfall totals and could lead to scattered
instances flooding.

Temperature-wise, lows this morning will be chilly, dropping into the low
to mid-30s across portions of the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley
following a cold front passage, and Frost/Freeze-related advisories and
warnings are in place for newly greening sensitive vegetation. Increasing
upper-level ridging over will bring warmer, above average temperatures to
portions of the Central U.S. today, to the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and
Midwest on Friday, and to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.
Below average high temperatures are forecast for much of the West through
the weekend due to expected cloud cover and precipitation and for the
northern high Plains Friday through the weekend as colder air moves in
behind a cold front.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 27, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 27 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 27 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 29 2024

…Rainy, stormy weather across the Southeast Coast through Thursday…

…Unsettled weather arrives over Northwest today…

…Warming trend begins over Central U.S. on Thursday…

A stalled out surface front along the Southeast Coast will be the focus
for heavy rain and thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon. There are
Slight Risks (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding over parts of eastern North Carolina and southeast
Georgia/northern Florida today, where areas of surface low pressure along
the stationary front may enhance rainfall rates/totals. The Storm
Prediction Center has only a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms along the Southeast Coast today. Rain showers should develop
along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts today along and ahead of a
northern stream cold front. There’s a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for portions of southeastern Virginia into northeastern North Carolina on
Thursday morning, right before the low pressure system and associated
precipitation push off into the Atlantic. Showers continue along the
Northeast Coast on Thursday with some potential snow showers developing
over interior portions of New England. Coastal low development along the
New England coast could also support some enhanced rain totals for
southern New England, in particular, by Friday morning.

Out West, a period of rainy/snowy weather will ensue across the Northwest
today. Precipitation will spread across the Pacific Northwest this morning
then into northern California and the interior Northwest this
afternoon/evening. Moderate to heavy snow is possible over parts of the
Cascades, Sierra Nevada and Northern Rockies; where between 1-2 feet of
snow may accumulate by Friday morning. Elsewhere, troughing along the lee
of the Rockies will promote southerly flow into the Great Plains beginning
Thursday. This pattern will support above average temperatures from the
Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest through the weekend.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 26, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Mar 26 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 26 2024 – 12Z Thu Mar 28 2024

…Winter Storm comes to an end over the Northern/Central Plains and Upper
Midwest; well below average temperatures over Great Plains…

…Severe Weather potential over parts of the Midwest and central Gulf
Coast today…

…Heavy to Excessive Rainfall possible over portions of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic…

…Unsettled weather returns to the Northwest on Wednesday…

Heavy snow and blizzard conditions associated with a deep mid-latitude
cyclone impacting the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest will come
to an end today. Additional snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches are
expected across eastern Minnesota by Wednesday morning, when the system is
forecast to move into Ontario/southern Canada. A frigid airmass will
continue to spread across the Great Plains today and Wednesday behind a
cold front. Highs will be 15-25 degrees below average for much of the
Plains today. Temperatures will moderate later this week.

Rain showers and scattered to isolated thunderstorm activity are likely
east of the Mississippi River today. Storms will organize along a pair of
cold fronts associated with two separate low pressure systems; the Upper
Midwest system and the Gulf Coast system. The Storm Prediction Center
issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for parts of the
southern Great Lakes and for portions of the Gulf Coast today. Damaging
wind gusts will be the main threat for both areas, but a brief tornado
can’t be ruled out over the Gulf Coast. The Gulf system is forecasted to
stall out over the Southeast/Florida panhandle this afternoon/evening
leading to potentially heavy rainfall occurring particularly over the
Florida panhandle. Significant moisture return from the Gulf will interact
with the slow moving cold front, which will produce an axis of 2-4 inches
of rain from northern Florida through the Southeast coast on Wednesday. A
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
is in effect for parts of north-central Florida into southern Georgia.

A deep low pressure system will bring another round of unsettled weather
to the Northwest beginning on Wednesday. Low elevation rain and mountain
snow are expected from this system. Accumulating snow should remain
confined to the higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada and
Northern Rockies. Some 1-2 inch 24 hour rainfall totals pose a Marginal
Risk (at least 5%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over
parts of the northern California into southern Oregon coastline.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 25, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Mar 25 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 25 2024 – 12Z Wed Mar 27 2024

…Major Winter Storm continues today…

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather impacts across Mississippi Valley
and central Gulf Coast…

…Critical Risk of Fire Weather over southern Texas; frigid temperatures
expand across Great Plains…

A powerful storm system will impact the Northern/Central Plains into the
Upper Midwest through Tuesday. Periods of snow and gusty winds will
continue from the Central Plains to northern Minnesota, along with some
sleet and freezing rain in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Snow
accumulating at rates of 1-2″/hr in heavier bands are expected from
central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota to northern Minnesota.
Additional snowfall totals between 6-12 inches are forecast from central
Nebraska to northeastern Minnesota. Heavy snow and gusty winds approaching
50 mph will produce blizzard conditions with near zero visibility into
early Tuesday. Travel could be nearly impossible. Power outages and tree
damage are likely in some areas due to the heavy and wet snow combined
with icing and strong winds. Winter Storm/Blizzard Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect from portions of the Central/Southern
High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

In the warm sector of the winter storm, scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast ahead of a cold front today. There’s an Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) to occur across portions of southeast Arkansas
into northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. Tornadoes and damaging
winds are possible through tonight from parts of east Texas through the
Lower Mississippi Valley, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
There’s also a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to
Flash Flooding over portions of southern Missouri down through Arkansas,
Mississippi and west-central Alabama. While the Severe Weather threat
wanes on Tuesday, the Excessive Rainfall threat simply shifts into the
Southeast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect over portions
of southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida panhandle on
Tuesday, due, in part, to a stalled out low pressure system along the Gulf
Coast.

Strong westerly flow along the base of an upper trough will support very
dry and gusty winds in excess of 25 mph over portions of the Southern
Plains today. Thus the Storm Prediction Center issued a Critical Fire
Weather area (level 2/3) for far southern Texas. A frigid airmass will
spill out over the Great Plains today, where high temperature anomalies
will be 15-30 degrees below average. A moderating temperature trend begins
on Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns to the Pacific Northwest by
Wednesday thanks to a deep low pressure system.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 24, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 24 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 24 2024 – 12Z Tue Mar 26 2024

…High-impact winter storm continues across portions of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest through early week…

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm threatens Southern Plains to
Southeast…

…Critical Fire Weather for Central/Southern High Plains today; frigid
airmass descends into Great Plains…

A potent closed low will continue fueling a powerful and dynamic winter
storm across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest over the next couple days.
Heavy snow will expand into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today
and continue into Tuesday. Heavy snow is also expected in parts of the
Central Plains tonight and Monday. There is a high chance (>70%) of at
least 8 inches of snow extending from northern Nebraska and central South
Dakota northeastward to central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
Heavy snow and gusty winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow
and possible blizzard conditions today into Monday. Hazardous travel and
road closures are expected late today into early week.

Strong winds and heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines may damage trees
and cause power outages. Wind gusts over 50 mph today may result in power
outages, blowing dust with reduced visibility, difficult travel and
property damage. Critical Fire weather conditions are forecast in portions
of the Southern Plains today, where Red Flags are also in effect.
Anomalously cold air will filter in behind the winter storm, spilling out
into Montana today then the Great Plains through early week. High
temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the High Plains over the next
couple days will be 15-30 degrees below average.

Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms are possible within the warm
sector of the aforementioned dynamic winter storm over the next couple
days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the Central/Southern Plains today. There’s a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms over parts of central Kansas into northern-central
Oklahoma this afternoon through evening where isolated to scattered severe
storms could produce large hail and a few tornadoes. Showers and
thunderstorms develop over the Mississippi Valley on Monday as the winter
storm moves into the Plains and a southern stream system organizes along
the Gulf Coast. The combination of these two systems may produce heavy to
Excessive Rainfall, as well as scattered Severe Thunderstorms from the
central Gulf Coast up into the Middle Mississippi Valley. There are Slight
Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) and Severe Thunderstorms (level
2/5) for these areas. A few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible
Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Colorado Basin Water Supply Forecast Plus More: Posted March 23, 2024

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). You can access their website HERE.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on March 19, 2024.  The situation has improved but there is a lot of variability. It is not the usual north (dry) to south (wet) pattern that one expects with El Nino but more of a north (dry) center (wet) south (dry) pattern related to the storm track where it is wetter than north or south of the storm track.  It shows up in terms of the Upper versus Lower Colorado Basin. Due to a wet winter last year, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape.

I have also included information on the current BOR reservoir storage levels including some that are outside of the Colorado River Basin. I also provide information on New Mexico which is partly in the Colorado Basin and mostly outside of the Colorado Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 23, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 23 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 23 2024 – 12Z Mon Mar 25 2024

…Swath of Heavy Snow to impact portions of northern Vermont, New
Hampshire and Maine today…

…Significant Winter Storm likely across parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest; Severe Weather and Critical Fire Risk over Central/Southern
Plains on Sunday...

…Excessive Rainfall concerns along DC to Boston urban corridor today…

A number of low pressure systems will produce unsettled weather across the
East and West Coasts today. In the East, a northern stream system will
bring heavy snow to interior Northeast/northern New England today. Winter
Storm Warnings are in effect from northeastern New York through Vermont,
New Hampshire and Maine where a swath of heavy snow will likely dump
between 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts through tonight. To the
south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the rest
coastal Northeast down to the southern tip of Florida today. A
particularly heavy axis of rainfall is forecast to setup along the I-95
corridor from Washington DC to Boston today where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect (level 2/4).
Conditions improve across the East Coast on Sunday.

Out West, a potent upper-level low will promote coastal scattered to
isolated thunderstorms and low elevation rain showers, while heavy snow
blankets the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous today. Snow showers spread into
the Rockies this afternoon. Snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are expected
for the aforementioned areas by the end of the weekend. The upper trough
associated with the unsettled weather in the West will be responsible for
the development of a major winter storm over the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest beginning today.

An extensive and high impact storm system will produce widespread heavy
snow and gusty winds over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through
early next week. Heavy snow will likely spread across much of central and
eastern Montana tonight, then expand into the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Sunday and continue into Monday. There is a high chance (>70%)
of at least eight inches of snow extending from portions of the Dakotas
and north-central Nebraska northeastward through Minnesota and into
northern Wisconsin. Heavy snow and gusty winds will produce areas of
blowing and drifting snow and possible blizzard conditions Sunday into
Monday. Hazardous travel and road closures are expected late Saturday into
early next week. Strong Winds and heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines
may result in tree damage and power outages. Blustery wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph on Sunday may result in power outages, blowing dust that results
in reduced visibility and damage to property.

There are severe and fire weather concerns within the warm sector of this
dynamic system. There’s a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5)
across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday, where large hail and a
few tornadoes will be the main threats. Strong southwesterly flow
beginning today will support an elevated fire weather threat over far
western Texas. Rapid cyclogenesis and strengthening of the Plains winter
storm will lead to increased dry southwesterly flow into the
Central/Southern High Plains behind a well-defined dry line on Saturday.
These conditions will support a Critical Fire Weather threat on Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

For those who may have missed the Seasonal Outlook article yesterday, here is a graphic that covers April and the three months April/May/June. But the Four Season Outlook is likely to have negative impacts for various parts of the U.S. so I recommend that you read the full article which you can access HERE.

But in terms of April and the three-month outlook, the below graphic provides a single graphic summary of the near term. It is the intermediate-term and long-term that is more concerning.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on March 21, 2024 – Hints of a Possibly Very Strong La Nina Coming: Published March 22, 2024

Updated at 11 p.m. EDT March 22, 2024. Three additional graphics were added plus some additional commentary.

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is very challenging. The potential for a very strong La Nina is discussed but it is not the likely scenario at this point in time. But it seems that the longer-term outlook now factors in both drier conditions in certain parts of the U.S. and wetter conditions on the East Coast and Southeast this summer.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for April.

It will be updated on the last day of March

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different, especially with regard to temperature.  This tells us that May and June will be different than April to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through April/May/June of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for April and the three-month period Apr/May/June.  Small maps are provided beyond that through Apr/May/June of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article.  For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.