Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024
…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley on Thursday and a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England plus the Central/Southern High Plains on Friday…
…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern tip of Florida on Thursday and a slight Risk over the southern
tip of Florida on Friday…
…There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern
California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains on
Thursday…
A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley, and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the
Northeast Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and westward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will trigger showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of severe thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the
Central Plains to Western Ohio Valley. Further, there will be an added
threat of large hail, two inches or greater, from the Central Plains to
the Western Ohio Valley.
On Friday, the boundary moves eastward to the Northeast, producing showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England from
Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of tornadoes/ hail.
In addition, along the western end of the front, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Friday through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an added threat of severe
thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the Central High
Plains. On Friday, there will also be showers and thunderstorms from parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Appalachians.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, a stationary front with waves will extend across
northern Florida and parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and the combination of
tropical moisture over southern Florida will produce showers and
thunderstorms with very heavy rain over parts of southern Florida.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.
On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over
the southern tip of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over southern Florida from Friday into
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Elsewhere, on Friday, a front will develop over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and move inland to the Northern Plains, the Great Basin, and
Southern California. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Friday
evening into Saturday. Moreover, onshore flow behind the front will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday to Saturday.
Moreover, upper-level ridging will develop over parts of the Southwest
eastward to the Southern, leading to Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and
Heat Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and
Southern High Plains. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor
activities must stay informed and take immediate and necessary precautions.
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