Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 11, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Oppressive to dangerous heat and humidity continues across the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley as some relief from the heat
moves into the central High Plains...

...Heat increases across the Desert Southwest and interior valleys of
California...

...Threat of heavy rain moving southward into the Southeast next couple of
days as another heavy rain threat emerges near the central Gulf Coast...

...Severe thunderstorms threat expected to track across the northern tier
states for the next couple of days...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 10, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat and humidity continues across parts of the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Monday...

...Areas of heavy rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic expected to push
southward into the Southeast on Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible tonight and Sunday over parts of the
northern Rockies to northern Plains, as well as  parts of the Deep South
tonight...



















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 8, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Southeast...

...Unsettled weather including severe storms and heavy rain to continue
along a slow-moving boundary extending from the central Plains to the
Southeast...

...Severe storms possible into the weekend across Montana...




















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 7, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 7, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Widespread showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe
weather possible through Friday from the High Plains to the East Coast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the
Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...




















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 6, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through midweek from the Northern Rockies and High Plains to the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...





















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 5, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast.:


...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible early to mid week from the Northern High Plains to the East
Coast...

...Hot in the Southern & Central Plains and Southeast while milder
temperatures are expected in portions of the West/Northwest and
Northeast...



















	




	
	

		Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 4, 2022	





		
			
		
		July 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast.:


...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible across northern
tier...

...West cools down as Great Plains into Midwest warm up...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend...



















	




	
	

		Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 3, 2022	





		
			
		
		July 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.


Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon (Saturday) and the next two days from the Saturday afternoon NWS Forecast.:


...Tropical Storm Colin to track from the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic
Coast today before moving offshore on Sunday...

...Wet weather, isolated Flash Flooding and Severe thunderstorms possible
across the Southeast quarter of the nation and from the Central to
Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies, Northwest and from portions of
the Southwest into the Southern Rockies...

...Areas extending from the West Coast inland through the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies will have cooler than average temperature  while the
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes will be warmer
than average temperatures...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend..



















	




	
	

		NOAA Updates July Outlook – June 30, 2022 – Not Much Change – Some Ocean Indicators are Surprising	





		
			
		
		July 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Updated at 2:30 am EDT July 2, 2022 to incorporate the Week 3 – 4 Outlook which suggests that the second half of July will not be as cool in the Northwest but perhaps less warm elsewhere and the Monsoon may be less robust but some other areas will be less dry.


At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.


For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly


We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow.  We will provide an update at that time.


We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.


There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.


We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.



















	




	
	

		NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on June 16, 2022 – One or Two Month Delay in Southern Tier Shedding La Nina Weather	





		
			
		
		June 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
.Updated at 5 pm EDT on June 18 to incorporate the Week 3 – 5 Outlook issued on June 17 which is somewhat different than the full-month outlook so it is of some interest.


Change Appears to be Coming – but a bit slower than it looked last month.




Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of July plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps.


Even though the IRI analysis issued last week seems to show the La Nina will end perhaps a bit sooner than previously forecast, the weather outlooks seem to show weather impacts lasting a month or two longer. Uncertainty in the ENSO forecast introduces greater than usual uncertainty in the Seasonal Outlook. But the decadal trends are strong so we see a lot of that in the longer-term outlooks.