July 20: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue through midweek across the south-central
U.S., building into the Northeast on Wednesday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible into portions of the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday and New England on Thursday...

...Monsoonal moisture to bring locally heavy rains and isolated flash
flooding across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and Southern Rockies...

July 19: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Record Breaking Heat to continue into mid week across the Central and
Southern Plains...

...Severe Thunderstorms possible from portions of the Northern Plain into
the Upper Great Lakes...

...Monsoonal showers to bring locally heavy rains and isolated Flash
Flooding across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and Southern
Rockies...

...A Fire Weather threat will stretch from the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Great Basin and Central High Plains...

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 18, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat to impact much of the Great Plains...

...Scattered instances of flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible
throughout the Ohio Valley into tonight before the threat shifts into the
Northeast on Monday...

...Severe weather chances enter the northern Plains on Monday and swing
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Tuesday...

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 17, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous record-breaking heat to continue across the central United
States and parts of the West...

...Scattered flash flooding possible across much of the Ohio Valley on
Sunday, with isolated heavy rainfall forecast across the Southwest through
the beginning of next week...

...Severe weather possible across the northern Plains on Monday...

Friday looking ahead 28 days July 15, 2022

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays. When we issue the Seasonal Outlook on the third Thursday, we may sometimes issue the Friday report as an update to the Seasonal Outlook.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is not surprising that the forecast is relatively static and not showing much change over the 28-day period. And the dominant characteristic is hot.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 16, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue across much of the Central and Western
United States...

...Heavy rain and possible flash flooding for portions of the
Intermountain West, Rockies, and Gulf Coast region through tonight, with
severe weather possible across the northern High Plains...

...Instances of flash flooding possible throughout the Ohio Valley on
Sunday...

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on July 14, 2022 – Increasing Chances of a Three-peat

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be higher than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit higher. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now less disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.

So I am referring to it as a Three-peat but it is not over until it is over. So it may not happen but it looks increasing as if it will.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 15, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

..Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States...

..A Fire Weather Threat across portions of the Great Basin and Central
Plains...

..Heavy Rains and isolated Flash Flooding possible along the Central Gulf
Coast into the Southeast, across the Upper Mississippi Valley and from the
Southwest into the Great Basin and Southern Rockies...

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 14, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Continuing chances for heavy rain and scattered flash flooding forecast
across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible over the Southwest and
parts of the central/southern Rockies associated with monsoon activity...

...Severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts are
possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Mid-South through
tonight...

...Dangerous heat and humidity persists across much of the central United
States and Great Basin through the end of the week... 

Daily Report for the next 48 hours from July 13, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast to The Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and expanding to the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies/High Plains through Thursday morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue as well as parts of the Northern
High Plains and Great Basin...