July 28: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 28, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in place with areas of flash
flooding, potentially significant, across the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians through the end of the week...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and southern/central High
Plains with Slight to Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall...

...Heat wave to continue in the Pacific Northwest while staying
consistently hotter than normal over the southern Plains but heat is
forecast to increase along the East Coast...

July 27: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of flash flooding are in place with numerous flash
floods likely across the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians over the next
few days...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and southern/central
Rockies and High Plains with Slight to Moderate Risks of excessive
rainfall...

...Dangerous heat to bake the Pacific Northwest and portions of the
south-central U.S. through midweek...

July 26: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley into mid-week while a heat wave takes hold of the
Northwest...

...A stormy and wet weather pattern to impact the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the central Appalachians...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern Rockies
through mid-week...

July 25: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Central Plains and
Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday while Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
moderate a bit....

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible from Middle
Mississippi Valley to Northeast...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern
Rockies through Tuesday...

July 24: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking heat wave continues from Mid-South to Northeast this
weekend....

...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding to spread from
Midwest today and tomorrow to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
through Monday...

Friday Looking Ahead 28 Days July 22, 2022

July 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

First half of 28-Day Forecast Period is wetter than the second half. But it is hot throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is somewhat surprising that there is as much difference between the first 14 days and the second 14 days of the 28-Day Forecast Period.  The North American Monsoon is strong throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period. It is stronger at the beginning and slowly returns towards what is a normal Monsoon.  Heat will be a hazard.

July 23: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Searing heat wave to engulf much of the Heartland, Mid-South, and
Northeast Coast this weekend....

...Enhanced Risk for severe storms in the Midwest on Saturday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk in eastern Idaho today...

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on July 21, 2022

July 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina, but Not Quite Yet

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of August plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

The three-month period Jan/Feb/Mar next year seems to be when the overall precipitation situation improves but for some reason the temperature situation does not and may be worse for several months along parts of the Southern Tier. You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be better than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

July 22: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue impacting portions of the southwestern,
south-central, and eastern U.S....

...Severe thunderstorms possible across sections of the East Coast and the
Southeast today...

...Monsoonal moisture to bring locally heavy rains and isolated flash
flooding across portions of the Southwest into the southern Rockies...

July 21: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue impacting much of the central and
northeastern United States...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the Ohio Valley this evening
before shifting into New England and parts of the Southeast on Thursday...

...Persistent monsoonal moisture to bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the southern
Rockies...