Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 495 points or 1.21%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.37%,
• Gold $2,487 up $14.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.94,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.981 down 0.123 points,
• USD index $104.39 down $0.300,
• Bitcoin $63,346 down $1,268 or 1.96%,

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks experienced significant selling pressure on Thursday, with all three major indexes falling sharply. Here’s a summary of the key points:

1. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline, falling 2.3%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 494 points (1.2%).
2. Chip stocks were hit particularly hard, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 7%. Arm Holdings plummeted 15% after disappointing results, dragging down other market leaders like Nvidia and AMD, which fell over 6% and 8% respectively.
3. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February, settling around 3.98%.
4. Weak economic data contributed to the sell-off. The US manufacturing sector contracted further in July, jobless claims rose to an 11-month high, and construction spending unexpectedly declined in June.
5. Despite the Federal Reserve signaling a likely rate cut in September, investors reacted negatively to the economic data, viewing it as “bad news” rather than a potential catalyst for steeper rate cuts.
6. Traders increased bets on more aggressive Fed moves, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rising from 11% to 25%.
7. Meta was a notable exception, rising 4.4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results.
8. The July jobs report, due on Friday, is the next key data release that investors will be watching closely.

This sell-off highlights the market’s sensitivity to economic data and suggests that investors are becoming more concerned about economic growth rather than just focusing on potential rate cuts.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July 2024, a 47% decrease from the 48,786 cuts announced one month prior – but up 9% from the 23,697 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. perspective:

The job market is indeed cooling, with hiring at the lowest point in over a decade.  While we are seeing increased cuts in manufacturing sectors, both consumer and industrial, most industries are cutting below last year’s levels.

Construction spending during June 2024  is 6.2% above June 2023 estimate – but this is down from the 7.1% year-over-year in the previous month. Spending on private construction was up 5.9% year-over-year but down from the 6.5% growth in the previous month. Public construction was up 7.3% year-over-year but down from the 9.3% seen the previous month. Unfortunately, construction continues to slow even though it remains one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy.

The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.8% in July 2024,down 1.7 percentage points from the 48.5% recorded in June. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.4%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 49.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (45.9 percent) is 2.6 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 48.5 percent. Just one more nail in the manufacturing coffin indicating it has slid into a recession.

In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 238,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 235,500. Initial unemployment claims remain in territory associated with an expanding economy.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024 with unit labor costs increasing 0.5% year-over-year. Note that the trends are that both productivity and unit labor costs are moderating – however with productivity growth being significantly higher than labor cost growth, it helps the U.S. competitive position.

NFIB’s July jobs report found a seasonally adjusted net 33% of small business owners reported raising compensation in July, down five points from last month and the lowest reading since April 2021. A net 18% (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down four points from June. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Fewer small business owners are planning to raise compensation in the coming months, and plans to hire remain stable,. July marks the second month of net gains in employment on Main Street, and the number of firms with open positions remains exceptionally high.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bullish and Bearish Signals Clash in a Tug-of-War Across Global Markets
• The 10 Most Exciting Technologies of 2024
• China’s Energy Revolution: Wind and Solar Surpass Coal in Historic Milestone
• Record Production Helps ConocoPhillips Beat Q2 Profit Estimate
• High Energy Costs Prompt German Firms to Consider Relocating
• Traders Bet on $130 Oil as Middle East Tensions Spike
• Dow closes nearly 500 points lower Thursday as investors’ recession fears awaken: Live updates
• Markets are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting soon: ‘What is it they’re looking for?’
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Shake Shack, C.H. Robinson, Mobileye Global and more
• Stocks & Bond Yields Puke Amid ‘Most Volatile Earnings Season’ Since GFC
• New Video Emerges Of Shooter Running Across Roof As Trump Is Speaking
• ‘Important moment’ as interest rates cut to 5%
• 10-year Treasury yield ends below 4% for first time since February after weak ISM manufacturing data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 99 points or 0.24%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.64%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.58%,
• Gold $2,495 up $43.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $3.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.057 down 0.083 points,
• USD index $104.09 down $0.460,
• Bitcoin $65,224 down $946 or 1.43%,

Today’s Highlights:

Nvidia (NVDA) stock experienced a significant rally of nearly 13% on Wednesday, driven by several positive factors<:

1. AMD’s strong performance: AMD’s better-than-expected quarterly results and optimistic guidance for the third quarter helped alleviate concerns about the sustainability of the AI trade.
2. Morgan Stanley’s bullish call: Analysts at Morgan Stanley designated Nvidia as a ‘Top Pick’ following a recent pullback in the stock price. They maintained an Overweight rating with a price target of $144.
3. Big Tech spending on AI infrastructure: Microsoft’s increased spending on data center infrastructure in its latest quarterly results signaled continued investment in AI technology, benefiting chip suppliers like Nvidia and AMD
4. Industry-wide rally: Other semiconductor companies, including Broadcom, Micron, Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, and Super Micro, also saw gains on Wednesday.

The rally came after a period of decline, with Nvidia’s stock having dropped more than 20% from its June peak. Morgan Stanley analysts identified five main factors contributing to the recent decline: spending strategies, competitive pressures, export limitations, supply chain anxieties, and valuation concerns. However, they believe that despite these issues, the earnings environment is likely to remain strong for Nvidia and the AI sector as a whole. Despite recent fluctuations, Nvidia’s stock has shown impressive growth in 2024, rising over 130% year-to-date and significantly outperforming the Nasdaq’s 17% increase. The company is scheduled to release its next quarterly earnings report on August 28, 2024

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Pending home sales in June 2024 declined 2.6% from the previous year in June of 2024 but better than the 6.6% drop in May. Overall, home sales are down over 25% from 2001 levels. The household growth rate is slightly less than 1% per year since 2001 which means the need for housing should be up 25% from 2001 (not down 25%). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings. Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 45.3 in July 2024 from a seven-month high of 47.4 in June. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. This index is viewed as an early indicator the the national ISM manufacturing index which will be released tomorrow. The bottom line is that data continues to indicate that July manufacturing is in a recession.

The Federal Reserve released their FOMC meeting statement for 31 July 2025. The meeting statement seems to suggest that the FOMC is closer to starting a reduction in the federal funds rate. Here is a portion of the statement and you can draw your own conclusion.

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China is Flooding Global Markets with Excess Steel Supply
• Texas Pipeline Congestion Could Throttle U.S. Oil Exports at Critical Time
• U.S. Oil & Gas Sector Methane Emissions 8X Above Industry Target
• Inventory Draw Pushes Oil Up
• Indian Oil’s Profit Tumbles by 81% on Weak Refining Margins
• Brent Breaks Above $80 on Fears of Middle East Escalation
• Powell says September rate cut ‘on the table’ if inflation data continues to cool
• S&P 500 posts best day since February, as Powell points to possible September rate cut: Live updates Live updates
• Nvidia shares soar 13% after Microsoft quells fears that AI buildout is too fast
• Boeing taps aerospace veteran Ortberg to replace Dave Calhoun as CEO
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Boeing, Vistra, Match Group and more
• “The Fed Did Not Tip A September Cut, By Any Stretch”: Wall Street Reacts To The FOMC Statement

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 203 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.28%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.50%,
• Gold $2,405 up $27.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.69,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.142 down 0.034 points,
• USD index $104.55 down $0.010,
• Bitcoin $65,705 down $1,066 or 1.60%,

Today’s Highlights:

This week’s focus is on three major events:

This week is crucial for investors, featuring the Fed’s interest-rate decision, the July jobs report, and earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven” mega cap companies. Investors are particularly focused on whether the recent stock pullback has ended and are weighing expectations for rate cuts against concerns about Big Tech’s AI-driven performance. Semiconductor stocks, especially Nvidia, lagged, with Nvidia’s shares dropping significantly. Investors are closely watching Microsoft’s quarterly report, which will be followed by earnings from Apple, Amazon, and Meta. The market is keen to see if substantial AI investments are beginning to yield returns, especially after a volatile July that saw investors shift from Big Tech to small caps. Additionally, Starbucks and AMD are set to report their earnings after the market close. Despite uncertainties surrounding AI, a trend has emerged where investors support companies that post weak results but indicate a positive business outlook. The Fed began its July policy meeting, with expectations that there will be no immediate change in borrowing costs but potential groundwork for a rate cut in September, following encouraging June inflation data.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.8% in May 2024, dropping from a 7.3% increase in the previous month. New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.4% increase in May, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with increases of 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 1.0% annual increase in May. From CoreLogic’s  Dr. Selma Hepp:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in July 2024 to 100.3 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June. Consumer confidence has been little changed over the last 2 years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board added:

Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.

The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June 2024. As the graph below shows, there is a correlation between job openings and employment gains. As the number of job openings is little changed – one would expect little change in employment growth when the July data is released later this week. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Aluminum Prices Plummet Despite Green Energy Hype
• Ukraine Targets Another Russian Oil Depot Amid Escalating Conflict
• Phillips 66 Tops Forecasts Despite Profit Slump
• Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Plunge to 11-Month Low
• Microsoft shares drop as cloud miss overshadows better-than-expected revenue and earnings
• Here’s everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
• JetBlue shares jump 12% after surprise profit, $3 billion aircraft spending deferral
• Three Palestinian Terror Suspects Detained At Southern Border As Agents Lament Lack Of Resources
• Cannabis company Tilray made a huge bet on craft beer. It’s already paying off.
• ‘Social-media companies have failed’: Senate passes bills to protect kids online

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 49 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $2,381 up $0.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.170 down 0.029 points,
• USD index $104.56 up $0.240,
• Bitcoin $67,297 down $947 or 1.39%,

Today’s Highlights:

This week’s focus is on three major events:

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday
2. The July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday
3. Earnings reports from major tech companies

While no change in interest rates is expected from the Fed meeting, investors are looking for signals about potential rate cuts later in the year. The jobs report is anticipated to show some weakening in the labor market, which could influence future rate decisions. Earnings reports from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are highly anticipated, especially given the recent stock sell-off following earlier “Magnificent Seven” results. Over 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, providing a broad view of the economic landscape. The market’s performance comes after a strong rally on Friday, driven by encouraging inflation data that bolstered expectations for future interest rate cuts. However, the recent volatility and tech sector sell-off have left investors cautious about potential surprises that could challenge the fragile market rally.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at -1.3, with the near-zero reading signaling little change in output from June 2024. The new orders index dropped 12 points to -12.8 in July, signaling a pullback in demand. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes also slipped, falling to -10.0 and -16.3, respectively. Manufacturing in the U.S. continues to be weak – and likely will be in a recession in July 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Has Global Oil Production Already Peaked?
• New Gas Discovery Brings Optimism for Bolivia’s Energy Future
• WTI Sheds Over 2% As Goldman Sachs Heralds U.S. Crude Output Growth
• Weak Demand in China Weighs on Middle East Oil Price Outlook
• Ukraine Targets Russian Energy Infrastructure in Retaliatory Drone Strikes
• China’s Top Grid Operator Plans Record $83 Billion Investment in 2024
• Apple releases first preview of its long-awaited iPhone AI
• Investors are punishing stocks that miss earnings more than normal this season
• Ford, GM, Stellantis face a daunting second half of 2024
• Bitcoin moves toward $70,000 then dips as investors digest political developments: CNBC Crypto World
• McDonald’s earnings, revenue miss estimates as consumer pullback worsens
• Treasury Estimates $1.3 Trillion In Borrowing Needs For The Remainder Of 2024
• Treasury sharply cuts third-quarter borrowing estimate

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 654 points or 1.64%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.11%,
• Gold $2,384 up $30.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.50,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.192 down 0.0663 points,
• USD index $104.31 down $0.040,
• Bitcoin $68,011 up $22152 or 3.37%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 589 Canada +14 to 211

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EU Leverages Frozen Russian Assets for €1.5 Billion Aid Package to Ukraine
• Oil Rig Count Jumps as Drilling Activity Picks Up
• Technology and EVs Send China’s Power Demand Surging
• Goldman Sachs: Next President Will Have Limited Tools to Raise U.S. Oil Supply
• Stocks soar, Dow closes 650 points higher buoyed by bullish inflation report: Live updates
• Apple and Microsoft are among the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks set to report next week. Here’s what that means
• Dexcom shares plunge more than 40%, head for worst day on record
• Bitcoin bounces back above $67,000, while ether drops more than 7% for the week: CNBC Crypto World
• Nvidia could be on the verge of a massive technical sell-off, chart analyst warns
• Treasury yields slip after release of key inflation data for June
• Bidenomics Failure Worsens As Credit Card Delinquency Rate Hits 12-Year High  
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at more than 5-month low after PCE inflation data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 81 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.93%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.51%,
• Gold $2,362 down $53.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.51,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.251 down 0.049 points,
• USD index $104.40 down $0.01,
• Bitcoin $64,663 down $703 or 1.08%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

• Dow leads stock comeback from steep sell-off: The focus is shifting to the economy as GDP and jobless reports exceed expectations .
• US economy booms as GDP growth blows past expectations: The GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q2, much higher than economists expected .
• Stellantis stock sinks on results, following rivals GM, Ford: Stellantis’ stock performance in light of recent results .
• Chipotle to splurge on bigger portions to keep diners happy: Chipotle’s strategy to maintain customer satisfaction .
• Flamin’ Hot Cheetos dispute winds up in court: Legal issues surrounding the popular snack .
• US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edges up to 6.78%, Freddie Mac says: Latest mortgage rate figures from Freddie Mac .
• OpenAI announces AI-powered search tool SearchGPT: Launch of OpenAI’s new search tool, SearchGPT .
• Workers at GM seat supplier in Missouri reach tentative agreement, end strike: Resolution of the strike at a GM seat supplier .

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged 97% to 234 in June from 119 in May. It is up 98% from 118 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. The perspective from Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc:

Leaders are anticipating a sea change as we enter the second half of this year, perhaps politically, but certainly technologically. New leadership is often necessary during periods of change.

The advance estimate of 2Q2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% year-over-year. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.9% year-over-year. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. On the other hand, inflation marginally worsened with the implicit price deflator rose to 2.6% year-over-year from last quarter’s 2.4%. Advance estimates can be significantly different than the “final” GDP growth numbers. As I have previously stated – inflation is not going away.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June 2024 declined 10.2% year-over-year from the 1.5% decline last month   The decline can be laid on civilian aircraft (Boeing) but there were no bright spots as manufacturing continues to fade.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Rare Earths Strategy, Explained
• Grid-Enhancing Technologies: The Answer to Growing Power Needs?
• U.S. Boosts Natural Gas Power as Wind Output Slumps to 33-Month Low
• U.S. Hits Record High Electricity Generation From Natural Gas
• Oil Prices Tank on Fears China’s Rate Cuts Herald Demand Weakness
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower Thursday as tech comeback attempt falters: Live updates
• Lineage begins trading in the market’s largest IPO of 2024
• Ford shares, on pace for worst day since 2008, lead autos rout after company’s disappointing earnings
• Berkshire Hathaway dumps $2.3 billion of Bank of America shares in a 6-day sale
• Bitcoin sinks to $64,000 level alongside tech stock rout: CNBC Crypto World
• Southwest to get rid of open seating, offer extra legroom in biggest shift in its history
• ChatGPT reveals search feature in Google challenge
• This bond-market signal of impending recessions went on a wild ride. Here’s its message.
• 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end lower for second time in three sessions despite solid U.S. GDP data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 504 points or 1.25%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.64%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2.31%,
• Gold $2,403 down $15.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.287 up 0.049 points,
• USD index $104.38 down $0.070,
• Bitcoin $65,643 down $297 or 0.45%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

1. Nasdaq Sinks Over 3%: The Nasdaq experienced a significant drop, driven by disappointing earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. This sell-off has led to increased market volatility, with the VIX reaching its highest level since April.
2. US Business Activity Growth: Business activity in the US grew at its fastest rate in over two years in July, according to S&P Global’s latest flash US composite PMI. The services sector drove the gains, while manufacturing activity declined.
3. Tech Stocks Lead Losses: Major tech stocks, including Tesla and Alphabet, saw substantial declines, contributing to the broader market downturn. Tesla’s stock fell nearly 9%, and Alphabet’s shares dropped about 5%.
4. Economic Confidence Among Small to Mid-Sized Businesses: Despite high economic confidence among small to mid-sized businesses, there are emerging signs of concern, as highlighted in a recent report.
5. Fiserv to Release Q2 Earnings: Fiserv, a global provider of financial services technology, is set to release its second-quarter earnings results today. The company will present the results during a live webcast

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2024 is 7.4% below June 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 476,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate. Over the last 18 months, the median sales price of new homes is little changed. It is obvious that high mortgage rates are affecting new home sales.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Unaffordable Prices and Elevated Interest Rates Impact New Car Demand
• Net-Zero Targets Could Double Yearly Copper Demand by 2035
• Russia, Iraq And Kazakhstan To Compensate Overproduction in The Next 15 Months
• ‘Oil Kills’ Climate Activists Block European Airports
• Tesla to Focus on Autonomy and AI as Earnings Disappoint
• S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble for worst day since 2022 as Tesla, Alphabet slide after quarterly results: Live updates
• Tesla shares close down 12% after earnings miss for biggest slump since 2020
• Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn’t seem to be working anymore
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Lamb Weston, Tesla, Enphase Energy and more
• CrowdStrike to improve testing after ‘bug’ caused outage
• 2-year Treasury rallies on wave of risk-off sentiment, sending yield to lowest in more than five months
• ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks near correction territory as $1.7 trillion in value erased

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 128 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.58%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.08%,
• Gold $2,400 down $1.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.18,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.255 up 0.017 points,
• USD index $104.32 down $0.080,
• Bitcoin $68,267 up $86 or 0.13%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

1. The S&P 500 rose on Monday, rebounding from its worst weekly loss since April. This rise was primarily driven by a bounce in tech shares, particularly Nvidia leading the tech sector recovery.
2. The market showed a shift in focus from large technology stocks to smaller companies.
3. Investors were closely monitoring corporate earnings and central bank policies. There was a high expectation (around 93%) of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut in the upcoming September meeting.
4. The market was also reacting to political developments, with President Joe Biden exiting the presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.01 in June 2024 from –0.08 in May. This month forty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI while 43 made negative contributions. following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. This is my favorite coincident economic indicator – and it is telling us that the economy is growing near the historical average rate of growth.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Solar Surplus: California’s Renewable Energy Dilemma
• Trans Mountain Corp. Arranges Bond Sale To Refinance $18B Debt
• Armenia Deepens Western Ties with U.S. Military Drills
• Saudi Arabia, Gulf Economies To Slow Down Due To Output Cuts
• Bad News From China Could Be The Harbinger For Lower Oil Prices
• Russia Considers Building Oil Refinery in Cuba
• Ukraine Drone Damages Russia’s Largest Black Sea Refinery
• Warner Bros. Discovery tells NBA it intends to match Amazon’s media rights package
• S&P 500 climbs for best day since early June as Nvidia shares lead tech turnaround: Live updates
• Markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ after Biden drops out of presidential race
• US Subsidiary Of Chinese EV Manufacturer BYD Donated Hundreds Of Thousands To Democrats
• Treasury yields end at nearly 2-week highs as traders assess chances of a Trump win
• Oil prices finish lower, holding ground at lowest since mid-June

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 377 points or 0.93%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.81%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.71%,
• Gold $2,401 down $55.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $2.54,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.238 up 0.005 points,
• USD index $104.37 up $0.19,
• Bitcoin $66,449 up $2,466

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle about 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the U.S., and over 40% of the nation’s imports and exports.  These ports provide a timely view of import and export volumes. In July 2024, import volumes are up 20% year-over-year whilst export volumes are up 9% year-over-year. Import volumes are now at their pre-COVID levels which suggests a growing appetite for imported goods – all while exports are languishing well below the pre-COVID levels. Further, this month’s data suggests a negative headwind to GDP as imports are subtracted from GDP.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia Cuts Crude Exports To China And India By 17%
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Sees Rebound
• The Biggest U.S. Solar-Storage Project Launches in Nevada
• Oil Prices Under Pressure as Concerns Mount Over Chinese Demand
• Houthi Tanker Attack Causes 200-Kilometer Oil Slick
• Israeli Drone Strike Kills Syrian Oil Kingpin
• What to know about airline refunds, delays as global IT outage causes ‘mass chaos,’ expert says
• CrowdStrike shares close down 11% after major outage hits businesses worldwide
• Russia Warns It Sees ‘Concentrated Presence’ Of NATO Warships In Black Sea
• ‘Newcastle Virus’ Detection In Brazil Halts Chicken Exports, Sends Shares Of Producers Sliding

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 533 points or 1.29%, (Closed at 40,665, New Historic high 41.376)
• Nasdaq closed down 0.70%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.78%,
• Gold $2,446 down $14.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.61,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.197 up 0.052 points,
• USD index $104.19 up $0.44,
• Bitcoin $63,589 down $502 or 0.78%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The July 2024 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey‘s indicator for general activity rose 13 points to 13.9, and the indexes for shipments and new orders turned positive. The employment index also turned positive, suggesting an overall increase in employment levels. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall price increases. Most future activity indicators rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. If you are a fan of surveys, then you gotta believe manufacturing activity is growing. I am a skeptic as I see retail sales flat and imports rising – these as significant headwinds to manufacturing.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year. Note that The Conference Board lately has been providing the doomiest view of the economy. An explanation by Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board:

The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months. The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.

In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 234,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 233,500 to 233,750. Although initial claims are modestly trending up, it is well within the values expected in a growing economy.

CoreLogic’s US Annual Rental Price Growth Rate for single-family rents rose by 3.2% year over year in May 2024, the highest rate of growth since April 2023. May’s annual rent growth was generally in line with numbers recorded over the decade before the pandemic.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• SunPower Shares Crash Nearly 40% On Work Stoppage
• China’s Grip on Rare Earth Industry Tightens as Prices Drop
• Oil Prices Hold Gains As US Jobs Data Appears to Support Rate Cuts
• Can the U.S. Avoid an Energy Crisis?
• China’s Surging Commodity Exports Suggest Weak Domestic Demand
• Netflix beats estimates as ad-supported memberships rise 34%
• Bye-bye bitcoin, hello AI: Texas miners leave crypto for next new wave
• New multi-billion dollar deal adds to rising trend of bitcoin miners moving to AI: CNBC Crypto World
• NBA sends media terms to Warner Bros. Discovery, officially starting five-day match period
• OpenAI debuts mini version of its most powerful model yet
• ‘Inflationary’ tariffs by U.S. could upset expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.