markets

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +1.67% +576 points,
• Nasdaq closed up +3.33%,
• S&P 500 closed up +2.47%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 115, up 0.897%,
• USD $101.68 down 0.008%,
• Gold 1853 up 0.01%,
• Bitcoin up 1.09% to $28741,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.015% / 2.743%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real personal income (inflation-adjusted) was little changed in April 2022 and continues its downward trend. On the other hand, real personal consumption expenditures continued its growth.

CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp recapping where the housing market stands:

With the Fed’s more aggressive talk on tightening financial conditions and expectations of higher mortgage rates throughout 2022, home buyers rushed into the housing markets in early months of this year, reigniting the buyer frenzy and pushing home price growth to new highs. Even monthly increases in home prices reached new post-pandemic highs in the first quarter of 2022. However, since mortgage rates have hit the psychological 5% benchmark, buyers are stepping back and allowing housing market conditions to normalize again. Fewer buyers and more available for-sale inventory means slower growth of home price growth in the months ahead.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Seizes Russian Tanker Full Of Iranian Crude Near Greece
• Memorial Day weekend car shopping is looking ‘pretty bleak.’ Here’s what to expect
• Carl Icahn loses proxy fight with McDonald’s over animal welfare
• Gap shares tumble nearly 20% after retailer slashes profit guidance for the year

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +1.61% +517 points,
• Nasdaq closed up +2.68%,
• S&P 500 closed up +1.99%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 113, up 3.09%,
• USD $101.98 down 0.10%,
• Gold 1852 flat 0.00%,
• Bitcoin down 0.81% to $29265,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.004% / 2.751%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The second estimate of 1Q2022 real GDP lowered the economic growth rate to -0.4% from the advance estimates -0.3%. Still, the year-over-year growth rate is 3.5% where the headline number is an extrapolation of the month-over-month change.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index shows growth slowed in May 2022 but remains in positive territory.

According to the National Association of Realtors, April 2022 made the sixth consecutive month of decline and is now at the slowest pace in nearly a decade. Pending home sales are based on signed contracts for home purchases.

Even though the week claims modestly improved this week, the four-week rolling average continued its worsening trend.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Refiners Set To Add Just 350,000 Bpd Capacity By End-2023
• Baby formula supply should return to normal in two months, FDA commissioner says
• Home listings suddenly jump as sellers worry they may miss out on the red-hot housing market
• Massive Short-Squeeze Sends Stocks Soaring As Macro Massacre Continues
• Markets Have Reached A Critical Near-Term Pivot With Huge “Trend Reversal” Implications

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +0.60% +192 points,
• Nasdaq closed up +1.51%,
• S&P 500 closed up +0.95%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 111, up 0.55%,
• USD $102.12 up 0.34%,
• Gold 1854 up 0.21%,
• Bitcoin down 0.80% to $29620,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.004% / 2.756%

Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April 2022 increased 12.2% year-over-year. This is a modest increase over the 9.4% reported for March 2022.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC May 3-4 2022 meeting minutes were published today. It is interesting that the minutes avoided quantifying future increases to the federal funds rate. A paragraph from the minutes which is a good summary:

Participants agreed that the economic outlook was highly uncertain and that policy decisions should be data dependent and focused on returning inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal while sustaining strong labor market conditions. At present, participants judged that it was important to move expeditiously to a more neutral monetary policy stance. They also noted that a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook. Participants observed that developments associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-related lockdowns in China posed heightened risks for both the United States and economies around the world. Several participants commented on the challenges that monetary policy faced in restoring price stability while also maintaining strong labor market conditions. In light of the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, participants judged that risk-management considerations would be important in deliberations over time regarding the appropriate policy stance. Many participants judged that expediting the removal of policy accommodation would leave the Committee well positioned later this year to assess the effects of policy firming and the extent to which economic developments warranted policy adjustments.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• One Billion People Are At Risk Of Rolling Blackouts This Summer
• Dick’s shares rally despite lower forecast; company says outdoor hobbies will outlast pandemic
• Stocks Soar After Dismal Macro Data, Hawkish Fed Minutes
• Iran Deal Has Sunk As Biden Keeps IRGC On Terror List; Tehran “Evaded” Nuclear Inspectors For Years

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +0.15% +48 points,
• Nasdaq closed down -2.35%,
• S&P 500 closed down -0.81%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 110, down 0.72%,
• USD $101.75 down 0.34%,
• Gold 1866 up 0.02%,
• Bitcoin up 0.27% to $29331,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.098% / 2.761%

 

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed reported that their 5th district manufacturing index declined – and fell into recession territory going from an index value of 14 in April to -9 in May 2022.

New Home Residential Sales significantly declined in April 2022 to the lowest level since the COVID lockdown / recession. This should be considered a potential recessionary marker.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Stocks Will Sink Further, Economist Rosenberg Says
• Gasoline Prices Are Set To Spike This Week
• Best Buy says softer demand is sticking around, but the company isn’t planning for a recession
• Big-Tech & Bond Yields Plunge As US Macro ‘Snaps’, Gold Gains
• Dalio: “Cash Is Still Trash… But Equities Are Trashier”, Prefers Gold & Bitcoin

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +1.98% +618 points,
• Nasdaq closed up +1.59%,
• S&P 500 closed up +1.86%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 111, up 0.11%,
• USD $102.09 down 0.83%,
• Gold 1853 down 0.16%,
• Bitcoin down 1.51% to $29144,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.079% / 2.868%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The super coincident Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) continues to show strong growth in April 2022. The trend lines continue well above the economy’s historical trend (average) rate of growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Bears Are Back In Metals Markets
• Starbucks will exit Russia after 15 years, closing 130 licensed cafes
• Monkeypox outbreak is primarily spreading through sex, WHO officials say
• Bank of America CEO says Americans still haven’t spent all their stimulus money

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed flat +0.03% +8.77 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed flat +0.01%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 110.64, down 0.88%,
• USD $103.07 up 0.20%,
• Gold 1844 up 0.02%,
• Bitcoin up 0.99% to $29271,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.067% / 2.787%

Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Under Pressure As China Considers Russian Crude
• Russian Oil Revenues Soar Despite Sanctions
• Kohl’s says final sale bids expected in coming weeks; retailer slashes full-year outlook after earnings miss
• Dow Suffers Longest Losing Streak In 99 Years, Bonds & Bullion Bid
• Ross Stores shares sink as lower-income shoppers feel the squeeze of inflation

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 0.75% -237 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.26%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 111.22, up 1.82%,
• USD $102.81 down 1.05%,
• Gold 1842 down 0.03%,
• Bitcoin down 0.13% to $30048,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.031% / 2.853%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed’s May 2022 Manufacturing Index remained in expansion but fell to the lowest level in two years.

According to executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., the rate of job seekers who started their own businesses in the first quarter of 2022 hit the highest rate since the first quarter of 2019.

For week ending 14 May 2022, the 4 week rolling average for initial unemployment claims continues to modestly worsen.

April 2022 existing home sales declined for the third straight month – and down 5.9% from one year ago. Per Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist:

Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity. It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
• Earth’s oceans have reached the hottest and most acidic levels on record, UN says
• Gas prices have now topped $4 in ALL 50 STATES for the first time in history
• Gas prices just hit a new record high. Here are a few ways to cut down the cost
• Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Jump As Dollar Dumps After Dismal Data
• Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A “Recession Manual” To Clients

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 3.57% +1,165 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 4.73%,
• S&P 500 closed down 4.04%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 109.28, down 3.79%,
• USD $103.85 down 0.54%,
• Gold 1816 flat 0.00%,
• Bitcoin up 0.20% to $29242,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.081% / 2.889%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) increased for the first time since December 2021. The authors of this index believe there is “potential for heightened geopolitical tensions to stoke supply chain pressures in the near term.”

April 2022 new residential construction starts declined according to US Census. However, year-over-year growth improved from last month.

“Many companies are making changes at the top to address rising costs for both business and consumers,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

It should come as no surprise that the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined to the lowest level since the COVID recession.

At the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, April 2022 imports continue to run at a near record pace (year-over-year) whilst exports declined 7% year-over-year. Generally speaking, a recession is unlikely when imports are in expansion year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gasoline Prices Top $6 In California, $9 In Parts Of Europe
• Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
• Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits
• Stocks & Bond Yields Crater As The ‘American Consumer Is Strong’ Narrative Implodes
• The Fed: Fed will keep raising interest rates until it is ‘confident’ inflation is moving down, Harker says

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 1.34% +431 points,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 2.02%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 112.04, down 1.62%,
• USD $103.31 down 0.85%,
• Gold 1815 flat 0.00%,
• Bitcoin up 0.88% to $30,730,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.105% / 2.984%

Today’s Economic Releases

Retail sales continue at blockbuster rates according to US Census data. The April 2022 data shows year-over-year sales increased 6.7%. HOWEVER, when adjusted for inflation (as shown in FRED’s series RRSFS), this is the second month in a row that retail sales have declined year-over-year.

According to the Federal Reserve, April 2022 industrial production data continues to grow following the COVID recession of early 2020.

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance report for February 2022 shows loan delinquencies continued to decline relative to the period one year ago.

“Consumer confidence fell slightly in April, after a modest increase in March,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Steel Demand Is Taking A Beating As China Lockdowns Persist
• Walmart shares fall as higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits
• United Airlines says FAA has cleared 52 Boeing 777s to fly again after they were grounded for engine failure
• JPMorgan Sees Gas Prices Hitting $6.20 By August
• The Margin: Free rapid at-home COVID tests: You can order a third round from the federal government

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow closed up 0.08% +27 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.20%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 114.87, up 3.72%,
• USD $104.22 down 0.32%,
• Gold 1826,10 down 0.28%,
• Bitcoin down 1.24% to $29,536,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.51% / 2.882%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures the manufacturer’s OPINION of business conditions in New York State, returned to negative territory which is normally associated with recessions.

CoreLogic’s Q1 2022 Quarterly Mortgage Fraud Index was little changed compared to Q4 2021 – however fraud risk is up 15% compared to the same quarter one year ago.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Surge Past $113 As Shanghai Signals End Of Lockdown
• A severe pilot shortage in the U.S. leaves airlines scrambling for solutions
• Inflation is the ‘top problem’ facing America, with no other issue coming close, survey shows
• Morgan Stanley Sees S&P Tumbling As Low As 3,400: “That’s Where Valuation And Technical Support Lie”
• The Margin: Who is Karine Jean-Pierre, the new White House press secretary making history Monday?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.