markets

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 436 points or 1.37%,
• Nasdaq closed up 4.06%,
• S&P 500 up 2.61%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 98 up 3.07%,
• USD $106.85 down 0.33%,
• Gold $1734 down 0.03%,
• Bitcoin $22,824 up 9.11% – Session Low 20,855,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.787% up 0.02%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Headlines say new orders for manufactured durable goods in June 2022 increased 1.9% – these numbers are not adjusted for inflation. The good news is that inflation-adjusted durable good has been marginally growing as the inflation-adjusted graph below shows.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC raised the federal funds rate 75 basis points. This is the fourth rate hike in five months. Their statement reads in part:

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

Pending home sales (sales based on contract signings) have now shrunk 20.0% year-over-year. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says:

Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date, There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.

There was an interesting tidbit in the pending home sales release:

According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Rise Following Fed Rate Hike
• McDonald’s and Chipotle say customers are trading down, visiting less often as inflation hits budgets
• Pending home sales fell 20% in June versus a year earlier as mortgage rates soared
• Mortgage demand declines further, even as interest rates drop a bit
• A Storm Of Indicators Show The US Consumer Is Tapped Out
• US makes huge interest rate rise to tame soaring prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 91 points or 0.28%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
• S&P 500 up 0.13%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $97 up 1.82%,
• USD $106.45 down 0.11%,
• Gold $1718 up 1.85%,
• Bitcoin $21,803 down 4.22% – Session Low 21,606,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.796 unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved marginally into negative territory in June 2022.  This is not indicative of a recession as the values are explained as follows:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

The point is that the three-month moving average has to fall to a value of -0.70 [this month the value is -0.04] before a recession occurs. The CFNAI is considered the best coincident indicator of the economy.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for July 2022 was largely unchanged at 3.8, a reading well below average but still indicative of growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brent-WTI Spread Widens To Over $8 As U.S. Gasoline Demand Slows
• OPEC+ Is Now 2.84 Million Bpd Below Its Oil Production Target
• GM trails far behind Tesla in EV sales — CEO Mary Barra bet the company that will change
• The Mega Millions jackpot is now $810 million. Here’s how much would go to taxes if there’s a winner
• Fear prevents workers reporting low pay – report
• The Fed: Four things you will want to listen for at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 137 points or -0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
• S&P 500 down 0.93%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $95 down 1.6%,
• USD $106.57 down 0.32%,
• Gold $1723 up 0.6%,
• Bitcoin $22,725 down 1.8%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.5% unchanged,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 758 Canada +4 to 195

Today’s Economic Releases:

This morning’s reported financials were anything but reassuring. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL Fell To 52.3 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47.5 From 52.3 – the rate of decline was the sharpest since the initial stages of the pandemic in May 2020. S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil Rig Count Unchanged As WTI Slumps Below $100
• Verizon shares fall after company cuts full-year forecast
• Airlines were too ambitious chasing the travel rebound. Now they’re scaling back
• Convenience store chain 7-Eleven cuts 880 corporate jobs as part of restructuring
• Volkswagen CEO Forced Out After Clashes With Union Bosses
• “It All Adds Up To One Word: Pain”: Traders Forced To Chase Gamma Higher As Stocks Refuse To Drop Despite Dire News And Data
• Powell seen slowing Fed hikes after 75 basis points next week
• Top Ten: Weekend reads: Prepare for a big week — a crucial Federal Reserve decision, tech-company earnings and a GDP report

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 48 points or 0.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.58%,
• S&P 500 up 0.59%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 100 down 3.79%,
• USD $107.06 up 0.35%,
• Gold $1695 down 5.44%,
• Bitcoin $23,650 up 1.20% – Session Low 22,967,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.03% up 0.009%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 29% to 106 in June 2022 from 150 in May. It is 2% higher than the 104 CEO changes announced in the same month in 2021. According to Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.:

The skills CEOs implemented, as well as acquired, during the pandemic are extremely valuable and many of them are finding new opportunities both within the organization and at new companies. Meanwhile, a large swath of CEOs are choosing this challenging economic time to retire after serving the last few years during the pandemic.

Existing-home sales declined for the fifth straight month with a decline of 5.4% month-over month in June 2022. Home sales prices increased with an average year-over-year gain of 13.4%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gazprom Preparing To Restart Flows To Europe Thursday
• Too Hot For Solar Power: Europe’s Heat Wave Makes Solar Panels Less Efficient
• June home sales fall 5.4% from May, as prices set yet another record
• Bath & Body Works lowers outlook, citing consumer caution during high inflation
• Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: Eyes Are On China, Volume Growth, Margin Expansion & Delivery Guidance
• The Tell: Stock-market bottom or bear market bounce? What traders want to see as S&P 500 extends gain
• Metals Stocks: Gold prices fall back to a more than 15-month low

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 754 points or 2.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 3.13%,
• S&P 500 up 2.76%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $104 up 1.82%,
• USD $106.70 down 0.66%,
• Gold $1711 up 0.06%,
• Bitcoin $23,409 up 10.48% – Session Low 20,774,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.201% up 0.061%

Today’s Economic Releases:

June 2022 residential building permits slowed but were still up 1.4% year-over-year, housing starts were down 6.3% year-over-year, and construction completions were up 3.4% year-over-year. Looking at single-family housing only – building permits and housing starts declined year-over-year whilst construction completions increased.

According to CoreLogic, “Annual U.S. single-family rent growth remained at a record high in May 2022, posting a 13.9% increase from May 2021. This growth matched April’s increase, representing the first time that price growth did not accelerate from the previous month since January 2021. ”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russian And Iran Ink $40 Billion Oil And Gas Agreement
• How Many Countries Are Actually Capable Of Space Travel?
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall Below $4.50 Per Gallon
• GM reveals electric Chevrolet Blazer priced starting at $45,000
• Delta buys 100 Boeing Max planes, its first major order with the manufacturer in more than a decade
• “Something Has Just Blown Up”: Small Explosion Seen At Hoover Dam
• Market Snapshot: Dow up 700 points as stocks head for largest gain in a month

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 216 points or 0.69%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.81%,
• S&P 500 down 0.84%,
• WTI crude oil at $102.27 up $4.78%,
• USD $107.44 down 0.58%,
• Gold $1705 down 0.12%,
• Bitcoin $21,527 up 3.6%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.967% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In June 2022, employers added 884,000 jobs for teens aged 16 to 19, a 41% increase from the number of job gains for teens in June 2021, when 625,000 jobs were added.

According to the June 2022 New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Credit Access Survey:

• The application rate for any type of credit over the past twelve months increased to 46 percent in June, up from 44 percent in February. The increase was driven by older (over 60) respondents and respondents with a credit score between 680 and 760. Overall, credit applications were approved at a slightly lower rate.

• The credit card application rate over the past twelve months increased to 28 percent, its highest rate since June 2019. The increase was driven by those with credit scores between 680 and 760. The rejection rate for credit card applications declined to 17 percent from 20 percent in February.

• The mortgage refinance application rate over the past twelve months dropped to 11 percent (among households with a mortgage), returning to its February 2020 level.

• Rejection rates for auto loan, home loan, and mortgage refinance applications all increased.

• The average probability of applying for a credit card or a credit card limit increase over the next twelve months rose slightly in June, while it declined for auto and home loans and mortgage refinances.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• $100+ Oil Is Back For The Long Haul
• Canada Sends Repaired Gazprom Turbine To Germany
• IEA Urges Europe To Take Immediate Measures To Conserve Gas
• Homebuilder sentiment plunges in July as buyers pull back
• Delta buys 100 Boeing Max planes, its first major order with the manufacturer in more than a decade
• Beijing Panics, Scrambles To Halt Mortgage Boycott By “Urging” Banks To Rush Developer Loans
• Apple Plunge Drags Down Market After Reports Of Hiring & Spending Slowdown

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 658 points or 2.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.79%,
• S&P 500 up 1.92%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 98 up 1.06%,
• USD $108.03 down 0.56%,
• Gold $1705 down 0.03%,
• Bitcoin $21,075 up 2.07% – Session Low 20,385,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.926% down 0.033%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 756 Canada +16 to 191

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.46%,
• Nasdaq closed flat +0.03%,
• S&P 500 down 0.30%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 96 flat 0.00%,
• USD $108.58 up 0.51%,
• Gold $1710 down 0.05%,
• Bitcoin $20,656 down 5.04% – Session Low 20,634,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.947% up 0.041%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Unemployment insurance weekly claims 4 week moving average continues to moderately grow.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 11.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest increase since a record 11.6-percent jump in March 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Are Energy Markets Responsible For Currency Craziness?
• People are paying more for clothes even as retailers like Walmart and Gap mark down prices to cut inventory
• Molson Coors to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 30 years
• Dimon rips Fed stress test as ‘terrible way to run’ financial system after his bank halts buybacks
• Banks Dump, Bitcoin Pumps, Bullion Slumps As Inflation-Recession Battle Builds
• Doug Casey On The Ridiculous Policies For Addressing Inflation And Rising Prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.